Activity and humanitarian situation monitoring mechanisms

Cluster statutory/extraordinary coordination meetings

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  Updating of "Who does What Where"
  
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  Preliminary, midterm and final evaluations
  
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  Inter-cluster and humanitarian coordination meetings
  
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  Joint supervisions and assessments
  
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  Epidemiological surveillance
  
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  Reports sharing
  

1. 
   Summary
   

The analysis of operational and coordination constraints has resulted in a reorientation of some important levers of the cluster’s strategy. This strategic reframing will help more effectively support vulnerable households, particularly the protection and restoration of the livelihoods of people involved in the upcoming massive waves of return, especially during the harvest period (October/November 2011) and the beginning of the 2012 main rainy season (February/March).

2. 
   Analysis of the situation and humanitarian needs in 2012 based on the retained scenario
   

The income share allocated to food purchases represents 73% of household expenses in mid-2011, compared with 51% before the crisis. This indicates a reduction in purchasing power. Approximately 89% of households surveyed in June 2011 stated that their food situation had deteriorated considerably since the beginning of the crisis. The coping strategy index (CSI) was beyond “20” in June 2011, compared with “9” two years earlier.

The number of daily meals is declining, and the quantity and diversity of food are lower among adults and children under age 5. This puts them at risk of a deteriorating nutritional status, especially during the lean season. According to the ESASU, 70% of households consumed less preferred foods, 66% decreased the amount of food (71% in some districts of Abidjan), 59% reduced the number of meals per day and 14% may not eat for several days. A total of 72% resort to destructive coping strategies (prostitution, begging) to meet their basic needs and their food needs in these urban areas. This trend is confirmed by the 2011 SMART survey, which reveals a level of global acute malnutrition considered as "precarious" in some priority areas.

Short-, medium- and long-term impacts result in a decrease in the resilience of the affected households. This resilience is further weakened by the destruction/disruption of livelihoods; high prices of basic foodstuffs (+ 13%, 6% and 4% for imported rice, local rice and corn compared with 2010); lack of access to land, seeds and agricultural inputs; and population movements that affect their own food security and that of the host communities. On a national scale, food prices had increased by 25% in July 2011 compared with the same month of the average five-year period (2006-2011). In April 2011, during the post-election crisis, the food index reached its highest level (138), i.e. 41% increase.

According to a WFP study in June 2011on the impact of the post-election crisis on markets, the crisis has caused traders to depart markets in the west, and in two communes of Abidjan (Abobo and Yopougon). The number of traders reduced by about 42% for retailers and 50% for wholesalers compared with last year. Until May 2011, the western region and the Abidjan area were still experiencing high decreases in grain-trade volumes.

Limited access to seeds and inputs is a major obstacle to resuming agricultural activities. This shock has affected farming households in the main production areas: 10.8% (north), 25.3% (north-west), 14.5% (central-north), 10.8% (centre), 12% (central-west) and 15.7% (west).

The analysis of food security phases (sixth cycle of IPC analysis) has led to the definition of the priority areas below:

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  The Bafing, Zanzan, Montagnes and Moyen-Cavally regions; the departments of Gagnoa, Daloa and Sinfra; the dense area of ​​ Korhogo; southern Ferkessédougou and towns that have experienced the passage of the militias in the south-west—which are now in phase 2 due to a sharp reduction in the households’ resilience and the increase in poverty following the long post-election crisis (five months) that destabilized the households’ sources of income.
  
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  The Zouan Hounien-Toulepleu-Guiglo triangle and the sub-prefecture of Duékoué and its surroundings divided into three phases, characterized by an acute and critical lack of access to food and a significant depletion of livelihoods-related assets.
  
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  Surveillance (undetermined risk of phase degradation) in the phase 3 area and affected areas in the south-west, central-west and the Savanes region (phase 2) requires emergency interventions among vulnerable people.
  

The vulnerable populations who did not benefit from humanitarian assistance in 2011 could be in dire need of food-assistance programmes until the next harvest (September/October 2012). In addition, access to market remains limited due to lack of income and income-generating activities.

3. 
   Response plan
   

The interventions will aim to counter the degradation of food-security indicators through occasional interventions, and to ensure the economic recovery at the local level within the framework of the early recovery. The knowledge of the agricultural calendar will be crucial in determining humanitarian programmes, particularly those related to agricultural recovery. The expected result is the reversal of the negative trend observed since the crisis, bringing the indicators to levels before the post-electoral crisis, taking into account the populations’ specific needs and ensuring implementation of the "Do No Harm" principle. Capacity-building will be needed in information management and food security coordination. The intervention strategy will constantly track changes in the indicators mentioned below to allow an optimal selection of activities and targeting the most vulnerable to food insecurity.

The needs analysis clearly indicates the most affected areas on the basis of indicators such as (i) food security; (ii) the rates of global and chronic acute malnutrition above critical thresholds; (iii) the difficult access to seeds and agricultural inputs; (iv) the prevalence of intercommunity suspicion and of GBV.

Priority areas may also change in 2012 according to the situation’s development. The evolution monitoring will continue to be based on the results obtained, including through market research, thorough investigations of food security, monitoring of the agricultural season, interpretation of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, the "Dynamic Atlas", etc.