futures wheel
| -
“special technique to organize speculation about and exploration of the future by a group (…) interpreted as a structured brainstorming”
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Toth (2009: 189)
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-
several possible outcomes are listed around the starting event as spikes of a wheel in order to evaluate further possibilities
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-
concept describing structural components of biological and social systems as “own” entities but parts of a larger whole at the same time
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Koestler (1978)
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game theory
| -
game theory reflects calculated circumstances, also called games, where a person's success is based upon the choices of others. It is mainly used in economics, political science, and psychology.
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designed to investigate contests where an individual does better at the cost of another player, also called "zero-sum" games, game theory applies a wide range of class relations, and has developed into an umbrella term for the logical science, to include both human and non-human decision theory
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Carmerer (2011)
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holon
| -
“self-similar or fractal structure that is stable and coherent and that consists of several holons as sub-structures and is itself a part of a greater whole (…); multiagent holons are observable by communication with their representatives”
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Schillo et al. (2004: 69)
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horizon scanning
| -
systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments across an extensive range of domains, not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking an planning.
-
may explore novel and unexpected issues, identifying emerging risks and wild cards. By establishing a process of acquiring, analyzing and communicating information, horizon scanning servers to improve the robustness of an organization’s policies and evidence base for enhanced strategic anticipation.
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Horizon Scanning Center, National Security Coordination Secretariat
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-
the systematic search for potential threats and opportunities that are currently poorly recognized
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Sutherland et al. (2009:523)
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incasting
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deductive method within future studies: set of particular predetermined images of the future from which several alternative futures scenarios for the object of research are being deduced
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Del Pino (2002: 291)
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| |
index
| -
a number (as a ratio) derived from a series of observations and used as an indicator or measure
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Merriam Webster Dictionary
|
-
something (as a physical feature or a mode of expression) that leads one to a particular fact or conclusion
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-
a device (as the pointer on a scale or the gnomon of a sundial) that serves to indicate a value or quantity
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indicator
| -
a thing, esp. a trend or fact, that indicates the state or level of something: “an indicator of affluence”.
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Merriam Webster Dictionary
|
-
a device providing specific information on the state or condition of something, in particular.
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integral futures
| -
integral futures is, in essence, a perspective, a way of understanding and operating, it is also true that the new breadth, depth, range and coherence that it encourages also lead directly not only to ‘refreshing’ earlier methods, but also giving birth to quite new ones.
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understanding of the Integral perspective provides a welcome boost for understanding, promoting and applying foresight work in general, and especially progress toward the widespread implementation of social foresight.
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Slaughter (2008: 107)
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-
four “irreducible” perspectives (subjective, inter-subjective, objective, inter-objective)
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Bishop et al. (2012: 105 ff.)
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-
holistic approach leading to broader and deeper futures thinking
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Interface
| -
A key principle of design is to prohibit access to all resources by default, allowing access only through well-defined entry points, i.e. interfaces.
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Bill Venners (2005-06-06)
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-
“This principle is really about dependency relationships which have to be carefully managed in a large app. […]Once you depend on interfaces only, you’re decoupled from the implementation. That means the implementation can vary, and that’s a healthy dependency relationship.”
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-
the place at which independent and often unrelated systems meet and act on or communicate with each other
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Merriam Webster Dictionary
|
-
“There are a number of situations in software engineering when it is important for disparate groups of programmers to agree to a ‘contract’ that spells out how their software interacts. Each group should be able to write their code without any knowledge of how the other group's code is written. Generally speaking, interfaces are such contracts.“
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Oracle Java Tutrorials
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key factors
| -
are central factors that will drive future development
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central factors which together form a description of the scenario field while also having an impact on the field itself and/or serving as means for the field to have an impact on the world around it.
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Key factors are thus those variables, parameters, trends, developments, and events which receive central attention during the further course of the scenario process.
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Kosow (2007)
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lagging indicator
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“a variable that changes after real output changes”
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Boyes et al. (2008: 163)
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-
opposite of a leading indicator (usually referred to in economics)
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leading indicator
| -
leading indicators is a model-based approach to forecasting originating in economics. Leading indicators are used as predictors in connection with a target variable that is led by a single leading indicator or a combination of leading indicators, ideally with a constant lead time, and are thus systematically able to "anticipate peaks and troughs in the target variable"
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In political science, leading indicator approaches to forecasting have also been used in connection with qualitative variables, for example in explaining the occurrence of complex social phenomena such as war
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Marcellino (2006: 881)
Hunt (1997)
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macrohistory
| -
the study of history on the largest scale (over centuries and within broad patterns)
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Audience Dialogue (2007)
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-
gives structure to various visions of futurists by providing an “overall-framework” on past, present, and future
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Lnayatullah (2009)
|
method
| -
a systematic procedure, technique, or mode of inquiry employed by or proper to a particular discipline or art
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Merriam Webster Dictionary
|
-
a way, technique, or process of or for doing something
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-
“Methods operate on an object's internal state and serve as the primary mechanism for object-to-object communication. Hiding internal state and requiring all interaction to be performed through an object's methods is known as data encapsulation — a fundamental principle of object-oriented programming.”
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Oracle Java Tutorial
|
module
| -
An Abelian group with the distributive action of a ring. A module is a generalization of a (linear) vector space over a field K, when K is replaced by a ring.
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Encyclopedia of Mathematics
|
morphological analysis
| -
study of the shape and arrangement of parts of an object, and how these parts conform to create a whole. “Objects” in question can be physical objects (e.g. an organism or an ecology), social objects (a social system of organisation) or mental objects (e.g. word forms, concepts or systems of ideas)
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Ritchey (2002: 1)
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-
a way of looking at the future by dividing it into logically exclusive possibilities
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open space
| -
a place stocked with needed materials, provided for large groups to present ideas without formal requirements. The most interesting applications are then the basis for discussion groups.
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RAHS Methodenliste
|
path dependence
| -
“Most generally, path dependence means that where we go next depends not only on where we are now, but also upon where we have been”
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Liebowitz et al. (2000: 981)
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PINCHASTEM
| -
a mnemonic summarizing the different kinds of drivers that cause change. The sequence of letters has no particular meaning, except to help remember the concepts
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Audience Dialogue (2007)
|
-
P (political, governmental), I (information, communication, media), N (natural, macro-environmental), C (conflict), H (health, biological, micro-environmental), A (artistic, cultural, recreational), S (social), T (technological, mechanical, electronic), E (economic), M (moral, ethical, religious)
|
-
similar acronym to “STEEP”, but more comprehensive version
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plausibility matrix
| -
a matrix connected with scenarios which illuminates the plausibility and the meaning of scenarios from the perspective of different stakeholders and actors.
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RAHs Methodenliste
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prediction
| -
“a confident statement about a future state of affairs”
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Slaughter (1993: 293)
|
predictioneering
| -
method based on game theory models addressing complex problems ranging from world and security challenges to personal issues.
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leveraging the core game theory concept of self-interest to predict human decision-making. The theory and application assumes human decision- makers will always act in their self-interest. Given this assumption, we can look forward and reason backward through a series of decision steps or iterations to understand what any given player within a game simulation will choose to do.
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De Mesquita (2010)
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process
| -
“A process is a set of activities that are interrelated or that interact with one another. Processes use resources to transform inputs into outputs. Processes are interconnected
because the output from one process becomes the input for another process. In effect, processes are ‘glued’ together by means of such input output relationships.”
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ISO 9001:2000
|
prognosis
| -
a set of expectations for a future that seems likely to occur. A prognosis would be less certain than a prediction but more certain than a forecast
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Audience Dialogue (2007)
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projection
| -
a Error: Reference source not found of change ebased on any arbitrary set of assumptions; usually associated with extrapolation of trends
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Long et al. (1987: 142)
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prototype
| -
an individual that exhibits the essential features of a later type
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Merriam Webster Dictionary
|
-
an original model on which something is patterned (archtype)
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resilience
| -
the capacity of a system, enterprise, or a person to maintain its core purpose and integrity in the face of dramatically changed circumstances
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Zoli (2012)
|
risk
| -
effect of uncertainty on objectives
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ISO 31000 (2009) /ISO Guide 73:2002
|
-
(Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility.
|
Oxford English Dictionary
|
| |
Frank Hyneman Knight (1921)
|
risk assessment
| -
risk assessment has been suggested as a general term for the incorporation of risk concepts into decision making, and has been defined as occurring in two stages; risk estimation and risk evaluation.
|
Otway, H. J., Pahner, P.D. (1976: 124)
|
robustness test
| -
The robustness of scenarios can be tested by confronting them with Wild Cards.
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RAHS Methodenliste
|
social impact assessment
| -
“defined as the process or estimating, in advance, the social consequences that are likely to follow from specific policy actions or project development, particularly in the context of appropriate national, state or provincial environmental policy legislation”
|
Vanclay (2003: 1)
|
s-curve
| -
a bounded differentiable real function that is defined for all real input values and that has a positive derivative everywhere
|
Han et al. (1995)
|
-
also called “Ogive” or “Sigmoid” curve; a mathematical function having an “S” shape
|
Institute for Objective Measurement (2013)
|
scenario
| -
refers to a brief description of a possible future
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Audience Dialogue (2007)
|
-
“chain scenario” as description of the route from now to a possible future. Unlike a forecast, which predicts future values of a few specific variables, a scenario is more descriptive than numerical
|
-
a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out right
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Lindgren et al. (2003)
|
-
an intentionally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be
|
Lindgren et al. (2003)
|
scenario learning
| -
Scenario learning works best when there are a number of alternative scenarios to consider, thus allowing us to assess different possible futures.
-
Scenarios are more than just tools for our learning; they’re a stimulus for action and they empower us by inviting us to take more control of our future. Thinking about future possibilities can generate sensitivity to possible changes and their implications much earlier in the change cycle.
|
Loader (2008)
|
scenario monitoring
| -
The continuation of a scenario process in which the usefulness of the scenario is tested to see whether it still has current value or whether a new scenario portfolio needs to be constructed.
-
The timeliness of the development of the indicators determines whether the scenario has a chance of actually happening or not.
|
RAHS Methodenkatalog
|
scenario planning;
| -
a disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational decisions may be played out
|
Lindgren et al. (2003)
|
-
part of strategic planning that relates to the tools and technologies for managing uncertainties of the future
|
-
three main uses for scenarios: (1) use them to make strategic plans; (2) focus on the learning process among the people who created the scenarios; or (3) a combination of both.
|
scenario writing
| -
telling a story based on scenarios which makes it understandable for a targeted group. This can occur as a story, film or other type of media.
|
RAHS Methodenkatalog
|
seven questions
| -
a clearly defined set of questions for key decision-makers. The catalogue of questions should ideally encompass the social and expert content of a thematic area.
|
RAHS Methodenliste
|
signal
| -
signals are signs of emerging issues of change and can reveal possible future trends
-
in contrast to weak signals, signals are stronger perceivable and have a higher frequency of occurrence/reproduction
|
Hiltunen (2007)
|
signals (weak)
| -
“weak signals mean today’s information that can foretell the changes in the future (…). As time passes, it might come out that weak signals were the first signs or symptoms of a big change, even megatrends”
|
Hiltunen (2008: 41)
|
social mood
| -
a collectively shared state of mind
|
Olson (2006); Nofdinger (2005)
|
socionomics
| -
Socionomics is a theory of human social behavior describing the causal relationship between social mood and social action.
-
The main principles of socionomics are that in human, self-organized complex systems, the following statements apply: (1) Shared unconscious impulses to herd in contexts of uncertainty lead to the emergence of mass psychological dynamics that manifest as social mood trends; (2) these social mood trends conform to hierarchical fractal patterns that take a repetitive, se lf-affine form and are therefore probabilistically predictable; (3) these patterns of aggregate behavior are form-determined due to endogenous processes rather than mechanistically determined by exogenous causes; (4) these social mood trends determine the character of social actions and are their underlying cause, both in financial markets and in other domains.
|
Prechter/Parker (2007)
|
software prototyping
| -
Software prototyping is the process of producing a partial system early in the development cycle to ascertain these needs.
|
Davis (1995: 39)
|
SOM
| -
Self-organized, topology preserving projections of high dimensional data onto a two dimensional map
|
Ultsch, Alfred (2003)
|
STEEP/PEST
| -
STEEP stands for Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, and Political analysis
-
PEST stands for Political, Economic, Social and Technological analysis
-
describes a framework of macro-factors used in strategic planning and strategic management
|
Methodenkatalog
|
SWOT analysis
| -
a structured planning method used to evaluate the Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats with Strength and Weaknesses being internal factors and Opportunities and Threats external
|
RAHS Methodenliste
|
system dynamics
| -
deals with how things change through time and includes most of what people find important
|
Forrester (1997)
|
-
demonstrates how most of the decision-making policies are the cause of problems that are usually blamed on others and how to identify policies we can follow to improve the situation
|
-
System dynamics uses concepts drawn from the field of feedback control to organize available information into computer simulation models.
|
Forrester (1991)
|
term (long)
| |
Universität der Bundeswehr
|
term (medium)
| |
Universität der Bundeswehr
|
term (short)
| |
Universität der Bundeswehr
|
theory
| -
theory is made up of four components, (1) definitions of terms or variables, (2) a domain where the theory applies, (3) a set of relationships of variables, and (4) specific predictions factual claims.
|
Bunge, M. (1967)
|
tipping point
| -
tipping points are a special form of discontinuity
-
generally tipping points describe the points of sudden change in a dynamic system that interrupt a continuous, mostly linear development or affect the direction or pace of such developments
-
in complex systems tipping points describe those parameter constellations that significantly change the system’s behavior.
|
Scheffer et al. (2009)
|
trend
| -
“a pattern or structure in 1-dimensional data”
|
Kivikunnas (2011)
|
-
“has a specific direction. A development that is constant over time and does not bring changes with it cannot be considered a trend.”
-
should have the duration of at least three to five years in order to distinguish trends from short term hypes
|
van der Duin (2006: 42)
|
trend analysis
| -
trend analysis is part of a strategic planning process and usually preceded by trend scanning/scouting
-
trend analysis describes the method used for active observation, analysis and interpretation of trends in cultural, economic and technological business environments. Based on analysis of publications, polls of experts, trend studies, etc., historical and actual trends are described and extrapolated into the future. This includes everything from trend-scanning to trend evaluation.
|
Kivikunnas (2011)
|
trend break
| -
“trend break represents a deep-seated value shift in society, a technological innovation that appears to be permanent, or a paradigm change”
|
Kroon (2004: 76)
|
trend (emerging)
| -
A trend which rises from an obscure or inferior position or condition
|
Universität der Bundeswehr
|
trend (micro)
| -
“small, under the radar forces that can involve as little as one percent of the population, but which are powerfully shaping our society“
|
Penn (2009: xiii)
|
trend (mega)
| -
great force that typically results in major changes that can impact the ways organizations and entire societies operate for decades to come, if not forever
|
Naisbitt (1988)
|
trend (meta)
| -
defined as a system-wide development arising from the simultaneous occurrence of a number of independent demographic, economic and technologic trends.
-
a composite scenario of trends
|
Snyder (2004)
|
trend management
| -
“trend management should reconstruct the elements of a discourse in which shifts of meaning can be observed, detecting and understanding the nodal points of a discourse”
|
Von Groddeck (2013, 28)
|
trend monitoring
| -
“trend monitoring typically involves the in-depth
monitoring of relatively few but very important trends”
|
Millett, S. M. (2006).
|
trend radar
| -
the trend radar is a web-based knowledge tool, which should enhance the collaboration of companies by showing the essential middle- and long term developments in society, economy, technology, politics and ecology in an interdisciplinary way
|
Itonics.de
|
uncertainty
| -
“must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of risk, from which it has never been properly separated (…) The essential fact is that ‘risk’ means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of the two is really present and operating (…) It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or 'risk' proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an immeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all"
|
Knight (1921: 197)
|
-
“Risk is a situation in which a decision must be made concerning a certain event and the probability distribution of this event is known.”
|
Ferrari-Filho et al. (2005: 582)
|
wildcard
| |
