Studienauftrag des Planungsamtes der Bundeswehr


“an event having a low probability of occurrence, but an inordinately high impact if it does”



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an event having a low probability of occurrence, but an inordinately high impact if it does”


Rockfellow (1994: 14)

  • an event which is highly unlikely to happen, but would have a huge impact on the human condition if it did

Audience Dialogue (2007)
  • one of the most unpredictable and potentially damaging triggers of change of four conceivable components of change: trends, cycles, emerging issues, and wild cards.”


Mendonca et al. (2004: 201)

wind tunnelling

  • describes the use of scenarios as a rapid test of policy responses to the likely trajectories of key issues

Duckworth et al. (2009)


  • derived from the analogy of testing a physical model’s response to different conditions in a wind tunnel

  • two commonly used wind tunneling approaches: (1) ‘Holistic’ method tests the current strategy against each scenario and looks for common elements across the scenarios. This gives insights into the implications for current strategy and action plans for dealing with situations under each of the scenarios. (2) An alternative analytical approach is where policy options are tested against each scenario. These are then assessed to determine whether they are successful in each scenario. If an option is successful against all scenarios, it is likely to be a robust policy. If it is a failure in one or more scenarios, the policy could be reviewed or, if it is pursued, the risks associated with the failures will be better understood so that they can be monitored and managed

  • by testing options against appropriate scenarios, it helps to reduce and manage the associated future risks.

world cafe

  • a special workshop for large groups divided according to region or another thematic area by table.

  • The groups all address one theme with one person per group as moderator and spokesman, so that discussion as a large group can occur based on the information provided by each spokesman.

RAHS Methodenliste

vision

  • “a compelling statement of the preferred future that an organization or community wants to create. Visions move and inspire us by stating why we are working together, what higher contribution flows from our efforts, and what we are striving to become. Vision development is the most powerful way to clarify where you would like change to go”

Bezold (1994)

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