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NEO in 2098

Dangerous asteroid could it us within this century.


(Belfast Telegraph,2010), September 29, 2010,”Belfast boffins are scanning the skies for a doomsday asteroid, and now they've found something worth keeping an eye on...”, Lexis, 6/27/11, CF
BE afraid ... be very afraid. Ulster scientists have discovered an asteroid that will come perilously close to our little planet in a couple of weeks' time, and could even strike Earth later in the century. And Northern Ireland-born former politician and self-proclaimed asteroid expert Lembit Opik has said the discovery is a harbinger of impending doom. The asteroid has been discovered by scientists from Queen's University in Belfast using a state-of-the-art telescope. A major sky survey has concluded that it will come within four million miles of Earth in mid-October. And what's more, experts have claimed that it is the first 'Potentially Hazardous Object' (PHO) to be detected by the Pan-STARRS (Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System) survey. The asteroid -- which is about 150 feet in diameter and has been given the designation 2010 ST3 -- was captured on images on September 16, when it was 20 million miles away. Astronomers from Queen's Astrophysics Research Centre are involved in the ground-breaking survey, which is generating the largest ever multi-colour survey of the cosmos. The Pan-STARRS camera, known as GPC1, is the world's largest with 1400 megapixels. Built by the University of Hawaii, it is enabling scientists to assess wide areas of sky at a level of detail previously impossible. Former Liberal Democrat MP Mr Opik said it was about time that politicians began to take the threat of asteroids seriously. "We should be afraid, we should be very afraid, because an object that size could incinerate Belfast," he said. "My frustration is that politicians don't seem to be taking the threat seriously, even though we're more likely to die in an astral impact than we're likely to win the national lottery." Dr Robert Jedicke, a University of Hawaii member of the PS1 Scientific Consortium (PS1SC), who is working on the asteroid data from the telescope, said the object won't hit the Earth in the immediate future. But he added: "There is a very slight possibility that ST3 will hit Earth in 2098, so it is definitely worth watching.”

NEO in 2182

Massive asteroid could hit Earth in 2182, warn scientists


Firth 7-28-10, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1298285/Massive-asteroid-hit-Earth-2182-warn-scientists.html
A massive asteroid might crash into Earth in the year 2182, scientists have warned.

The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually hitting the Earth at some point before the year 2200, but is most likely to hit us on 24th September 2182. If an asteroid of this size hit the Earth it would cause widespread devastation and possible mass extinction. While the odds may seem long, they are far shorter than that of the asteroid Apophis, which currently has a 1 in 250,000 chance of striking Earth in 2036 Maria Eugenia Sansaturio and scientists from the Universidad de Valladolid in Spain have used mathematical models to calculate the risk of the asteroid hitting the Earth anytime between now and the year 2200. And they were shocked to discover that there are two potential opportunities for the asteroid to hit Earth in the year 2182. . The odds then drop before rising again in 2162 and 2182. Asteroid 1999 RQ36 is part of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHA) group, which all have the possibility of hitting the Earth due to their orbits and are all considered likely to cause damage. Even though the asteroid’s orbit is well-known thanks to 290 different observations by telescopes and 13 radar measurements there is uncertainty about its path because of the so-called Yarkovsky effect. This effect, first discovered in 2003 and named after a Russian engineer, is produced by the way an asteroid absorbs energy from the sun and re-radiates it into space as heat. This can subtly alter the asteroid’s flight path. The research, which has been published in Icarus journal, predicts what could happen in the upcoming years considering this effect. Sansaturio said: ‘The consequence of this complex dynamic is not just the likelihood of a comparatively large impact, but also that a realistic deflection procedure (path deviation) could only be made before the impact in 2080, and more easily, before 2060.' She added: ‘If this object had been discovered after 2080, the deflection would require a technology that is not currently available. ‘Therefore, this example suggests that impact monitoring, which up to date does not cover more than 80 or 100 years, may need to encompass more than one century. ‘Thus, the efforts to deviate this type of objects could be conducted with moderate resources, from a technological and financial point of view.’ The impact from the asteroid that created the famous Chicxulub crater in Mexico would have caused 'mega-tsunamis' many thousands of feet high. It is believed that this asteroid led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Scientists around the world have long been discussing ways of deflecting potentially hazardous asteroids to prevent them hitting Earth.

Asteroids coming all the time




Everyday asteroids hit Earth


Hindustan Times ’10 (Hindustan Times, 7/26/10, Research reduces odds of Earth being hit by asteroids by 10-fold, 6/27/11, LexisNexis, MLK)
"On a daily basis, we're hit with basketball-sized objects, and Volkswagen-sized objects come in a few times a year. Fortunately, the limiting size for something that will actually do ground damage is about 30 meters [98 feet], and you'd expect something like that to come in every 200 years or so on average," Discovery News quoted Yeomans as saying. Yeomans heads NASA's Near Earth Object (NEO) Program Office, which continues to spearhead the global effort to identify and track significantly large asteroids in near-Earth space. That directive includes rocks more than a kilometer (0.6 miles) across, which typically hit the Earth in million-year intervals. These asteroids are capable of causing global consequences. Larger objects, including the ten kilometer 'dinosaur killer' that occurred 65 million years ago, are capable of plunging the globe into apocalyptic winters that last for years.

Asteroids constantly enter the Earth’s atmosphere, sometimes causing destruction.


Symansky ’08 (Paul Symansky, Electrical Engineer at SymTech Laboratories and Boston College graduate, 2/28/08, “Asteroids: A realistic, but very remote threat,” 6/22/11, LexisNexis, MLK)
Asteroids are both majestic celestial bodies and ominous threats to our planet. Hundreds of thousands of asteroids have been identified in our solar system, each with a unique size, trajectory, and composition. While rarely in the news, these chunks of metal and rock strike our planet at an alarmingly high rate: once every few minutes. Granted, we don't hear about them because the majority of them burn up in the atmosphere long before possibly posing a threat to us surface dwellers. In fact, the Earth's atmosphere protects us at least once a year from rather large asteroids, with diameters of 150 feet or more, which have as much energy as the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The Earth can't protect against all impacts, though. The Alvarez hypothesis, which postulates that an asteroid or meteor is responsible for the last mass extinction event on Earth, is a predominant theory that stands testament to that fact. Exactly 100 years ago, a large asteroid approximately 125 to 200 meters in diameter managed to work its way through the upper atmosphere and exploded in remote Siberia with a force that destroyed 830 square miles of forest. Impact events aren't relegated to the ancient past; they do happen today.

Asteroids are coming closer and closer all the time


Space.com ’11 (space.com staff, 5/9/11, “Huge asteroid to buzz Earth in November;

On November 8 and 9, the quarter-mile-wide asteroid 2005 YU55 will zoom past the Earth, coming within about 200,000 miles, a distance closer than our moon.” 6/22/11, LexisNexis, MLK)


An asteroid the size of an aircraft carrier will come closer to Earth this autumn than our own moon does, causing scientists to hold their breath as it zooms by. But they'll be nervous with excitement, not with worry about a possible disaster. There's no danger of an impact when the asteroid 2005 YU55 makes its close flyby Nov. 8, coming within 201,700 miles (325,000 kilometers) of Earth, scientists say. So they're looking forward to the encounter, which could help them learn more about big space rocks. "While near-Earth objects of this size have flown within a lunar distance in the past, we did not have the foreknowledge and technology to take advantage of the opportunity," Barbara Wilson, a scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., said in a statement. "When it flies past, it should be a great opportunity for science instruments on the ground to get a good look.

Tunguska devastation caused by a relatively small asteroid—what could a large one do?


Parker ’07 (Randall Parker, Professor of Economics at East Carolina author of Reflections on the Great Depression and The Economics of the Great Depression: A Twenty-First Century Look Back at the Economics of the Interwar Era both published by Edward Elgar, 12/18/07, “Tunguska Simulation Shows Higher Risk From Smaller Asteroids,” 6/21/11, , MLK)
The stunning amount of forest devastation at Tunguska a century ago in Siberia may have been caused by an asteroid only a fraction as large as previously published estimates, Sandia National Laboratories supercomputer simulations suggest. “The asteroid that caused the extensive damage was much smaller than we had thought,” says Sandia principal investigator Mark Boslough of the impact that occurred June 30, 1908. “That such a small object can do this kind of destruction suggests that smaller asteroids are something to consider. Their smaller size indicates such collisions are not as improbable as we had believed.” Because smaller asteroids approach Earth statistically more frequently than larger ones, he says, “We should be making more efforts at detecting the smaller ones than we have till now.”

The threat of asteroids is very real—we must begin research now.


Parker ’09 (Randall Parker, Professor of Economics at East Carolina author of Reflections on the Great Depression and The Economics of the Great Depression: A Twenty-First Century Look Back at the Economics of the Interwar Era both published by Edward Elgar, 10/27/09, “Asteroid Over Indonesia Triple Hiroshima Bomb Power,” 6/21/11, http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/006659.html, MLK)
On 8 October an asteroid detonated high in the atmosphere above South Sulawesi, Indonesia, releasing about as much energy as 50,000 tons of TNT, according to a NASA estimate released on Friday. That's about three times more powerful than the atomic bomb that leveled Hiroshima, making it one of the largest asteroid explosions ever observed. No telescope spotted it before it entered Earth's atmosphere. Rather than try to return to the Moon or go to Mars I would rather build an asteroid defense system. My motto: First, don't die.

New asteroid headed for earth on possible collision course.


TNS ’10 (Targeted News Service, 4/27/10, Students Capture Image of Distant Galaxy and Discover a Potential Earth Impactor, 6/22/11, LexisNexis, MLK)
Colleyville astronomy teacher Leslie Howell says, "Our most recent observation was of an asteroid identified by students Dylan Adams, Cole Stuart, Michelle Warnock, and Remi Dimarco. Fortunately, this asteroid is not a threat to Earth, but the objective of the program is to track asteroids and locate new ones that could be on a collision course with Earth." Meanwhile, students in the other ISAC program found exactly that--a virtual Earth impactor. Using telescopes in other locations across the United States, students in Europe and the U.S. have reported five new Main Belt Asteroid discoveries. One of the discoveries is a virtual Earth impactor, which means it has an orbit that poses a potential impact hazard to the Earth. This discovery was made on March 24 by students at the Jesuit College Preparatory School in Dallas.


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