Solvency – Deflection Solvency – Laundry List

Solvency – Deflection

Solvency – Laundry List

Many non-nuclear deflection mechanisms are possible

Two of the most important planning issues are briefly examined here. Firstly, the possibility of deflecting or destroying smaller comets or asteroids, so that an Earth impact is prevented, needs detailed consideration. A wide range of approaches to impact prevention has been put forward in the literature. Mitigation subsystems might involve rocket propulsion, rocket-delivered nuclear warheads, kinetic energy systems using projectiles, directed energy from lasers, mass drivers, solar sails and biological, chemical or mechanical asteroid and/or comet “eaters”. Suggestions have been made also of super magnetic field generators and futuristic force fields, tractor beams and gravity manipulation (Morrison 1996, 2004a; Simon 2002). Considerable progress has been made very recently in this area. The NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts has just announced five Phase II awards for the further development of revolutionary advanced concepts to help protect the Earth from cosmic collision (NIAC 2004). Beyond this, the European Space Agency has given priority to “Don Quijoté”, selected from six potential asteroid protection missions. This will involve an asteroid 500 meters in diameter and two spacecraft, Sancho and Hidalgo. Sancho will arrive first and orbit the asteroid for several months, deploying penetrating probes to form a seismic network. When this is ready, and adequate data has been collected, Hidalgo will arrive, crashing into the asteroid at about 10 kilometers per second. Sancho would then study the changes in the asteroid’s orbit, rotation and structure caused by Hidalgo’s impact. This information will give insights into what is needed to modify the orbit of any similar asteroid that may threaten Earth (Morrison 2004b). The United States is currently installing a missile defense system (Missile Defense Agency 2005). With greater international cooperation, this might be expanded to provide the capacity to protect the planet against errant near-Earth-objects, including medium-sized asteroids. Disaster plans should be tested long before they are needed in earnest. After an expert panel has evaluated such potential technologies for impact mitigation, two or three of the most promising should be tested on small, non-threatening asteroids. The sooner the planet has a functional defense system, the better. The technology required to provide one already exists. What is lacking is the political will and the financing required.

Solvency – Must Use Multiple Deflection Methods

Deflection technologies can work together

Schweickart ‘7 (Rusty, former astronaut head of B612 Foundation, The Sky Is Falling. Really. March 16, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/16/opinion/16schweickart.html?_r=1)

The good news is that scientists feel we have the technology to intercept and deflect many asteroids headed toward Earth. Basically, if we have early enough warning, a robotic space mission could slightly change the orbit of a dangerous asteroid so that it would subsequently miss the planet. Two potential deflection techniques appear to work nicely together — first we would deflect the asteroid with kinetic impact from a missile (that is, running into it); then we would use the slight pull of a “gravity tractor” — a satellite that would hover near the asteroid — to fine-tune its new trajectory to our liking.

Must use multiple deflection methods

IAA ‘9 (International Academy of Astronautics, “Dealing with the Threat To Earth From Asteroids and Comets,” http://iaaweb.org/iaa/Scientific%20Activity/Study%20Groups/SG%20Commission%203/sg35/sg35finalreport.pdf)

The probability of successfully deflecting a NEO with a single mission using any known concept and developed technologies is unacceptably low, given the likely scale of the consequences of a failure. It is therefore clear that the development and deployment of a robust multiple option, redundant, coordinated system of diverse systems is needed. The deflection of a NEO cannot be a mission but must rather be a campaign of multiple orchestrated missions deployed sequentially in increasingly capable stages, with means emplaced to rapidly assess the status and effects of the missions as they unfold.

Deflection

Deflection technology development is critical to avert extinction.

Gianmarco Radice, 2009 Ph.D. Space Advanced Research Team University of Glasgow, UK Journal of Cosmology, 2009, Vol 2, pages 440-451. Cosmology, November 16, 2009 Avoiding Another Mass Extinction Due to N.E.O. Impact
Over the last decade the possibility of an asteroid, large enough to cause world-wide destruction, impacting the Earth has stimulated an intense debate among the scientific community on possible deflection methods. A large range of mitigation strategies have been proposed and compared in literature (Barbee and Nuth, 2009; Cambier et al., 2009; Crowther, 2009; Sanchez et al, 2009). The broad overview presented in this paper does not intend to rule out other possible methods not analysed here, although some could be considered as a combination of the methodologies introduced above. For the first time in the history of mankind, we have the technological capabilities and scientific know-how to protect ourselves from a catastrophe of truly cosmic proportions. We cannot rely on statistics alone to protect us from catastrophe; we cannot afford to wait for the first modern occurrence of a devastating NEO impact before taking steps to adequately address this threat. It is now time for mankind to develop practical and viable strategies to protect Earth from asteroid impact; if not we will go the way of the dinosaurs.

Impacts may be rare- but when they occur we need to be ready

The Independent 08’, (The Independent, 7/2/08, “Impact Earth: Could we divert a giant asteroid?”, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/impact-earth-could-we-divert-a-giant-asteroid-858189.html, SH)

Dr Yeomans is part of a band of scientists lobbying for more research to investigate the orbits of the near-Earth objects that could pose a threat. With enough warning of an asteroid heading our way, it may be possible to deflect it if it appears to be on a collision course. Such surveys are under way. "We're identifying problems and hope to be able to do something about it," says Dr Yeomans. Nasa hopes to identify and track 90 per cent of all hazardous objects greater than 450 feet in diameter by the end of 2020. Scientists say that if ever a large object is discovered on a collision course with Earth, it might be possible to send up a nuclear-tipped rocket to blast it off course. A safer way would be to nudge it aside with smaller impacts, or even a "space sail" that uses the solar wind. One of the lessons from Tunguska is that, although we are vulnerable to the threat, it is not something that should turn us to despair – such massive impacts are rare. As Dr Yeomans says: "I think about Tunguska all the time from a scientific point of view, but the thought of another Tunguska does not keep me up at night."

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