Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
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- Ext 1 – No War
AT: Oil Dependency1. No Impact to oil economy— Fears of market instability prevent war. Ismael Hossein-zadeh 9-8-2008, professor of economics at Drake University and author of The Political Economy of U.S. Militarism, "Are They Really Oil Wars?," http://www.opednews.com/articles/6/Are-They-Really-Oil-Wars-by-Ismael-Hossein-zad-080906-963.html Now let us consider the widely-shared view that attributes the U.S. drive to war and military adventures in the oil-rich regions of the Middle East and central Asia to the influence of big oil companies in pursuit of higher oil prices and profits. As noted, this is obviously the opposite of the “war for cheap oil” argument, as it claims that Big Oil tends to instigate war and political tension in the Middle East in order to cause an oil price hike and increase its profits. Like the “war for cheap oil” theory, this claim is not supported by facts. Although the claim has an element of a prima facie reasonableness, that apparently facile credibility rests more on precedent and perception than reality. Part of the perception is due to the exaggerated notion that both President Bush and Vice President Cheney were “oil men” before coming to the White House. But the fact is that George W. Bush was never more than an unsuccessful petty oil prospector and Dick Cheney headed a company, the notorious Halliburton, that sold (and still sells) services to oil companies and the Pentagon. The larger part of the perception, however, stems from the fact that oil companies do benefit from oil price hikes that result from war and political turbulence in the Middle East. Such benefits are, however, largely incidental. Surely, American oil companies would welcome the spoils of the war (that result from oil price hikes) in Iraq or anywhere else in the world. From the largely incidental oil price hikes that follow war and political convulsion, some observers automatically conclude that, therefore, Big Oil must have been behind the war [20]. But there is no evidence that, at least in the case of the current invasion of Iraq, oil companies pushed for or supported the war. On the contrary, there is strong evidence that, in fact, oil companies did not welcome the war because they prefer stability and predictability to periodic oil spikes that follow war and political convulsion: “Looking back over the last 20 years, there is plenty of evidence showing the industry’s push for stability and cooperation with Middle Eastern countries and leaders, and the U.S. government’s drive for hegemony works against the oil industry” [21]. As Thierry Desmarest, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of France’s giant oil company, TotalFinaElf, put it, “A few months of cash generation is not a big deal. Stable, not volatile, prices and a $25 price (per barrel) would be convenient for everyone” [22]. 2. Non-Unique: The US is reducing its oil dependency CBNnews.com May 20 (“US Cuts Foreign Oil Dependency” 2008) < http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/378585.aspx> For the first time in more than 30 years, the United States is reducing its dependency on foreign oil. That trend is expected to continue. Currently, the U.S. receives approximately 60 percent of its oil from other countries. That figure is expected to drop to 50 percent by 2015. The Financial Times attributes the drop in part, to the increased use of ethanol and more efficient cars. The government expects fuel efficiency to keep improving, as well as a substantial increase in U.S. biofuel production over the next 20 years. 3. Attempts to reduce dependency only displace the dependency and inevitably fail Fattouh 07 (Bassam, Consultant Senior Research Fellow at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, specialist in the international oil pricing system, “How Secure are Middle East Oil Supplies?”, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, September) On the other hand, measures to enhance oil independence from the Middle East are unrealistic, costly and counter-productive.17 First, politically-induced oil disruptions in the Middle East have been the exception rather than the rule in the long history of the oil market. Second, reducing dependency on Middle East oil implies higher dependency on other exporting countries which are also unstable and suffer from the same problems that plague the region. Third, policies aimed at reducing dependency on the Middle East can backfire as countries may not feel the pressure to invest to increase production. In fact, it is an irony that many Western governments call for reducing dependency on Middle East, while at the same time are urging Middle East producers to increase investment in their oil sector to meet the expected rise in demand. In any case, policies to reduce dependency on the Middle East have all failed in the past and will meet the same fate if applied in the future. Ext #1 – No WarCountries much more likely to cooperate over energy- the alternative is too risky Robin Mills 2008, Master's Degree in Geological Sciences from Cambridge University and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warning," The Myth Of The Oil Crisis" http://www.articledashboard.com/Article/The-Myth-of-the-Oil-Crisis/491987 There is a real debate over how much oil the world holds. But ideas of a vast conspiracy involving some mix of OPEC, the US government and ‘Big Oil’ to exaggerate oil reserves are fantasy. Official figures are, if anything, somewhat under-stated, and, as recent massive finds in deep water offshore Brazil show, new exploration frontiers still exist. Out-dated environmental moratoria in the USA could be lifted to yield more domestic hydrocarbons. New technologies continue to wring more out of old fields. Most importantly, ‘unconventional’ oil sources hold many times the volumes of conventional oil - from the famous Albertan ‘oil sands’, to fuels from natural gas, coal and plants, to ‘cooking’ oil out of shales that hold trillions of barrels in the USA alone. So there is no need to fight ‘resource wars’ to ‘secure’ oil. Invading oil-rich countries is vastly expensive and makes oil supplies less, not more, secure. The Middle East is a growing part of the world economy, not a nest of terrorists, desperate to cut off oil supplies in order to bankrupt themselves and invite vengeance. Propping up dictators in return for energy ‘favours’ is not a valid long-term strategy either. The West, China, India and the oil exporters will gain far more from co-operating on energy, than following the mirage of ‘energy independence’. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. Tropical Cyclones documents -> Cbp and Trade Automated Interface Requirements Appendix: pga december 22, 2015 documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Mobile audio/video recording systems documents -> Cartographic Concepts for Realizing a Location Based umts service documents -> 1/ Background Statistics Human development index rank Download 2.71 Mb. Share with your friends:
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