Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
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- AT: Asian Economies
AT: Arctic War1. No actual conflict – the arctic war will be settled legally, with other countries simply caving to Russia Bronwen Maddox (Chief Foreign Commentator) 5/14/2009: Kremlin keeps up James Bond theme with talk of Arctic war. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/bronwen_maddox/article6283108.ece It is, no doubt, a coincidence that the Kremlin’s musings on whether there will be a war over the Arctic — the theme, couched, of course, in hypothetical terms, tucked into a high-profile defence review — should appear on the same day as a United Nations deadline for filing claims to the seabed. This has the air of a stunt, and in Arctic stunts Russia has no equal. No other country would have conceived of the showy James Bond literalness of using a submarine to put a flag on the Arctic seabed (to no legal consequence). Nonetheless, that added a frisson to the rising agitation about who will eventually get what. Countries are jostling for rights to previously inaccessible oil and gas, now within reach because of the summer melting of Arctic ice and new deep-water drilling kit. But to talk of war is to ignore the vast legal effort under way to settle just those questions. Yesterday’s deadline is part of it. Reading the Kremlin’s fierce and gloomy strategic review, which foresees threats and competition for Russia on all sides, other countries are presumably intended to tremble and surrender their claims. 2. Deterrence solves – if Russia wasn’t willing to fight during the cold war, they won’t fight now. AT: Asian Economies1. Asian economies swift stimulus mean it will recover quickly from the recession and remaining heavily resilient Prime Sarmiento 9-22-2009: Resilient developing Asian region to lead global economic recovery. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/22/content_12098472.htm Developing Asia is expected to register a stronger-than-expected 3.9 percent growth this year as timely economic policies and programs implemented by Asian governments will keep the region afloat amid the global recession. The Asian Development Bank has forecast in March that the region will only expand by 3.4 percent as most of its export driven economies are expected to be crippled by falling demand. But on Tuesday, the Manila-based lender revised its forecast to a higher 3.9 percent. ADB also upgraded its growth forecast for 2010to 6.4 percent from 6 percent forecast in March. In its flagship annual economic publication, Asian Development Outlook 2009, the Manila-based bank said the regional governments' "quick and decisive response" to the global downturn softened its impact to developing Asian economies. Massive stimulus packages, tax cuts, monetary easing policies and social assistance encouraged consumption and investments. "Almost every large economy in developing Asia has implemented measures to stimulate aggregate demand through fiscal and monetary expansion. In turn, households were relatively quick to spend fiscal windfalls that came in the form of tax cuts and income support, giving a fillip to consumption that began to boost GDP by the second quarter of 2009," ADB said in its report issued on Tuesday. More than keeping the region's economies resilient, these measures will also help in supporting its recovery. The ADB said the region is poised to achieved a V-shaped rebound, and will in fact lead the recovery from the global slowdown. "Despite worsening conditions in the global economic environment, developing Asia is poised to lead the recovery from the worldwide slowdown," ADB Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee said in a statement. India and China the world's fastest growing economies and developing Asia's largest economies will lead developing Asia's rebound. Economic growth in East Asia is upgraded to 4.4 percent as China is seen to grow by 8.2 percent, beating the previous forecast of 7 percent. ADB forecasts the South Asian economies to grow by 5.6 percent from the previous 4.8 percent as the Indian economy is poised to expand by 6 percent.
Adeline Teoh 10/27/2009: Asian economies must turn domestic: Japan. http://www.dynamicexport.com.au/news/asian-economies-must-turn-domestic-japan00750/ Growth for Asian economies will need to be rebalanced by becoming less dependent on the USA and instead turning to their respective domestic economies, according to Japan’s Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. While the global economy has shown signs of recovery, “the employment situation is still getting worse and in dire condition”, and Asia needs to stimulate domestic demand for more sustainable growth, he relayed through foreign ministry spokesperson Kazuo Kodama: “The economic conditions of the global economy seem to have bottomed out, yet there is no room for complacency.” 3. Alt cause – war in Iraq kills economy – US importing less, and oil prices are higher S. Pushpanathan (assistant Director for External Relations in the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta, Indonesia) 2009: ASEAN Economies Could be Affected by a Protracted War The commencement of the war has started to weaken the US dollars driven by market sentiments that the war would be short and swift. The US Federal Reserve could be cutting interest rates, which are already low, to mitigate the low confidence and spending in the US economy due to uncertainties about the duration of the war and its likely consequences. Many Asian countries are taking steps to tide over the economic impact of a prolonged war. These steps will include tightening monetary policy, ensuring stability in the financial markets and other fiscal measures to spur the economy. The announcement of Japan to inject US$8.3 billion into money markets will help to stabilize the global financial system. The ASEAN Foreign Ministers who held a retreat in Sabah recently were divided on the support for the US-led war in Iraq but all recognized the repercussions of a long war on the ASEAN economies. The ASEAN Secretary General Ong Keng Yong said that the war would hurt the region's shaky recovery and that a prolonged war could cut ASEAN's economic growth by up to one percent. A protracted war could affect the ability of the US market to absorb ASEAN exports due to the likelihood of slumping US demand for consumer goods and the sinking US dollar which may push up the prices of ASEAN exports. This would have a negative impact on the export-dependent ASEAN economies which require a steady flow of exports to consolidate their recovery and to keep jobs. Oil prices could increase again. Should President Saddam launch massive retaliatory attacks on Kuwait and other countries, light up the oil wells and use chemical and biological weapons on the advancing coalition forces, market sentiments would change and drive the oil prices up. Some have argued that the oil prices could hit the US$40-$45 dollars a barrel range if the war continues beyond weeks despite the assurance of OPEC to increase the supply to keep prices stable. Except from Indonesia and Malaysia who are net oil exporters, other ASEAN countries would be affected. Higher oil prices will put inflationary pressures on ASEAN economies even though the inflation rates are still reasonably low in most ASEAN countries. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. Tropical Cyclones documents -> Cbp and Trade Automated Interface Requirements Appendix: pga december 22, 2015 documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Mobile audio/video recording systems documents -> Cartographic Concepts for Realizing a Location Based umts service documents -> 1/ Background Statistics Human development index rank Download 2.71 Mb. Share with your friends:
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