Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
Ext #1 – Not Key to Econ Blackouts happen monthly – means its empirically denied
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- Ext 2 – Preventable
- Blackouts inevitable. Coping – not prevention – should be the primary goal.
- Ext 3 – Blackouts are Constructive
- AT: Brazilian Economy
Ext #1 – Not Key to EconBlackouts happen monthly – means its empirically deniedApt and Lave 8/10/04 - former NASA astronaut, executive director Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center; co-director of the center [Jay Apt and Lester B. Lave, “Blackouts Are Inevitable,” Washington Post, 8/10/04, p. A19, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52952-2004Aug9.html]Ext #2 – PreventableBlackouts largely preventable – caused by small errorsBiever 11/20/03 – staff writer [“Celeste, ‘preventable’ failures caused U.S. power blackouts,” ,New Scientist, 11/20/03, http://technology.newscientist.com/article/dn4405-preventable-failures-caused-us-power-blackout.html]<A disastrous string of preventable communication failures, software misuse and power line shut-downs caused the landmark electricity blackout that struck North America in August, according to an official report released on Tuesday. Over 50 million people in eastern and central US and Canada lost power. Engineers could have nipped the blackout in the bud if their companies had adhered to reliability standards designed by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), concluded Spencer Abraham, US energy secretary, and head of the US-Canada Power System Outage Task Force charged with producing the interim report. "When something goes wrong, and critical procedures are not followed, a number of relatively small problems can combine to become a big one," said Abraham. "It was preventable," said Herb Dhaliwal, the Canadian Minister of Natural Resources, Canada, and also on the taskforce. The economic cost of the blackout has been estimated to run into billions of dollars.> Blackouts inevitable. Coping – not prevention – should be the primary goal.Apt and Lave 8/10/04 - former NASA astronaut, executive director Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center; co-director of the center [Jay Apt and Lester B. Lave, “Blackouts Are Inevitable,” Washington Post, 8/10/04, p. A19, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52952-2004Aug9.html]This approach is very different from the debate with which congressional conferees are dealing. They should know that, despite the rhetoric, we will not be able to prevent all future power failures. While some investments to decrease the frequency of future outages are worthwhile, the Energy Department, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and state regulators need to focus on lowering the cost and disruptive effect of future blackouts. We need to be able to accomplish the essential missions of the electricity system despite a blackout -- and to do so at the lowest possible cost. Ext #3 – Blackouts are ConstructiveBlackouts increase investments to harden transmissionPeter Fairley, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Spectrum 2004. [director of the Society of Environmental Journalists,. “The Unruly Power Grid,” August, http://www.spe ctrum.ieee.org/aug04/4195] One, an optimization model, championed by Caltech's Doyle, presumes that power engineers make conscious and rational choices to focus resources on preventing smaller and more common disturbances on the lines; large blackouts occur because the grid isn't forcefully engineered to prevent them. The competing explanation, hatched by a team connected with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, views blackouts as a surprisingly constructive force in an unconscious feedback loop that operates over years or decades. Blackouts spur investments to strengthen overloaded power systems, periodically counterbalancing pressures to maximize return on investment and deliver electricity at the lowest possible cost. AT: Brazilian EconomyBrazilian economy resilient and officially out of the recession – real estate market, industry, and low unemployment proves Leslie Richards (investment consultant to Brazil land Invest and wrote this piece on the Brazilian economy and affordable housing sector) 9/18/2009: Brazilian Economy Resilient And Affordable Housing Is Attracting Foreign Investment. http://totalhorrormovies.com/brazilian-economy-resilient-and-affordable-housing-is-attracting-foreign-investment The Brazilian domestic real estate market is attracting huge foreign investment, helped by a strong and resilient Brazilian Economy. Second quarter real GDP increased 1.9% from the first quarter in figures released by the Brazilian Government. The data was released by The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and showed a reduced drop in GDP from last year causing Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and BNP Paribas to revise their 2009 GDP forecasts higher following the announcement. Brazils predicted growth has now been revised upwards to 4%, according to a weekly central bank survey of 100 economists. This coupled with a prediction of 0.16 per cent contraction for the whole year has led the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega to state publically Brazil’s economy has rebounded from the global financial crisis. The Brazilian Central Bank president Henrique Meirelles said GDP growth in this second quarter is excellent news and shows that Brazil has already come out of recession. Finance Minister Mantega said This growth is based upon positive trends in industry, services and employment rates. A major factor in the quick turnaround experienced by the Brazilian economy is a series of measures introduced by the Government to incentivise the domestic real estate market and construction industry. Minha casa, Minha Vida has been a huge success and has contributed to the 2.1 per cent increase in domestic spending over last months figures. This programme has poured R$60bn into Brazils housing market and given that the construction industry accounts for 5 per cent of Brazils gross domestic product this scheme is giving a valuable boost to employment and earnings. The Brazilian Government announced that it would plow another R$10 Billion into its flagship affordable housing scheme, Minha Casa, Minha Vida in 2010. The key to this scheme is the Government providing subsidies of up to 90%, which keeps the buyers mortgage payments below 10% of their income. Mortgage payments are guaranteed by a Treasury fund. Following the French and German economies, Brazil is the latest Group of Twenty economy to emerge from recession. Germany, the Euro regions largest economy, and France, the second largest, both expanded 0.3 percent in the period. Brazilian economic shocks inevitable – oil dependency and vulnerability to oil shocks Sandra Polaski et al (deputy undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of International Labor Affairs ) 2009: Brazil in the Global Economy. pg. 62 In the model base year of 2004, Brazil was a net importer of both crude oil and refined petroleum products, representing the fourth and fifth most important import commodities together accounting for 20 percent of total imports. Moreover, imports account for 37 percent of consumption of crude oil and 12 percent of consumption of refined petroleum. In combination, these data indicate that the Brazilian economy is likely to continue to experience, at least in the short term, substantial disruption following sustained increases in the price of imported oil. However, Brazil’s exports of oil-based commodities – currently crude oil only accounts for 2.3 percent and refined petroleum for 4.9 percent of total exports are likely to grow over time, which suggests the adverse implications of oil price increases will wane with future exploitation of petroleum reserves. Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. Tropical Cyclones documents -> Cbp and Trade Automated Interface Requirements Appendix: pga december 22, 2015 documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Ace abi catair customs and Trade Automated Interface Requirements documents -> Mobile audio/video recording systems documents -> Cartographic Concepts for Realizing a Location Based umts service documents -> 1/ Background Statistics Human development index rank Download 2.71 Mb. Share with your friends:
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