Tampa Prep 2009-2010 Impact Defense File
The WHO’s global stockpile of Tamiflu would eliminate the pandemic strain of Avian Flu
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- There is already a bird flu vaccine which is effective and can be made quickly
- Ext 3 – No Mutation
- The last 8 years proves the risk of mutation into human to human transfer is low
- Bird Flu can’t spread and mutate-Science Proves
The WHO’s global stockpile of Tamiflu would eliminate the pandemic strain of Avian FluThe Economist, October 20, 2005, (“Avian Influenza”<http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5053648 The top priority for everyone from scientists such as Klaus Stohr, who leads the WHO's global influenza programme, to economists such as Paul Gertler, at the World Bank, is better surveillance and prevention. Mr Shapiro, too, adds that "with sufficient resources, which are frankly trivial for an international effort, we could spend $250m-500m on an effective system of monitoring and rapid response to an outbreak in Asia." Computer models suggest that the WHO's global stockpile of Tamiflu (about 3m doses) could be deployed to the site of first emergence of a pandemic strain and used to eliminate it at source. However, the outbreak has to be detected within 21 days to have a chance of working. Close surveillance is vital to check that bird flu is not mutating into a human form. There is already a bird flu vaccine which is effective and can be made quicklyUnited Press International, 06 ( “Scientists Develop Bird Flu Vaccine”, January 26th 2006) < http://www.physorg.com/news10302.html> University of Pittsburgh scientists say they've genetically engineered an avian flu vaccine that has proven 100 percent effective in mice and chickens. The vaccine was produced from the critical components of the deadly H5N1 virus that has devastated bird populations in Southeast Asia and Europe and has killed more than 80 people. Since the newly developed vaccine contains a live virus, researchers say it may be more immune-activating than avian flu vaccines prepared by traditional methods. Furthermore, because it is grown in cells, it can be produced much more quickly than traditional vaccines, thereby making it an extremely attractive candidate for preventing the spread of the virus in domestic livestock populations and, potentially, in humans. "The results of this animal trial are very promising, not only because our vaccine completely protected animals that otherwise would have died, but also because we found that one form of the vaccine stimulates several lines of immunity against H5N1," said Dr. Andrea Gambotto, an assistant professor and lead author of the study. The research is detailed in the Feb 15 issue of the Journal of Virology and made available early online. Ext #3 – No MutationAvian Flu will take generations to mutate and isn’t spreading rapidlyUS Fed News 11-3-2005 Foreign affairs editor Pramit Pal Chaudhuri analyzed in nationalist Hindustan Times (10/27): "The present outbreak of avian influenza...will not kill even 200 people. It will devastate a lot of chicken farmers and ruin a lot of Christmas turkey dinners. Finally, by next spring, the world will have found a new disease to get panicky about.... This strain was detected in 1997 and is known to have killed about 75 people since then.... In comparison, tuberculosis and malaria knock off three million people each year. Bird flu panic, on the other hand, has spread like wildfire across the globe.... The H5N1 avian virus has taken the first step.... In other words, the world is still two and a half Darwinian degrees of separation from a pandemic. And bird flu is taking its sweet time about evolving further.... To stop a disease that has killed less than 100 people, tens of thousands of small farmers in Asia have been ruined by bird culls that have run past the 140 million mark.... In the meantime, governments are spending billions on actions that are often more about symbolism than science.... When patents come under threat so do profits, private firms stop doing research about that disease and the chances for a genuine cure recede.... Tamiflu, a non-cure for a hypothetical pandemic, is a poor case for the extreme action of patent breaking. No one should think that bird flu is not a threat. Given the right conditions and enough time, the virus will jump through the genetic hoops needed to make it a mass killer.... The present bird flu crisis will burn itself out in the next few months. Its legacy, however, is shaping up to be the worst of all worlds: unenlightened public, unreformed poultry industry and less medical research.... Don't stock up on Tamiflu. Don't socialize with South-east Asian chicken farmers. Eat Christmas turkey or butter chicken or whatever, just cook it well." The last 8 years proves the risk of mutation into human to human transfer is lowIrish Health 2005 http://www.irishhealth.com/?level=4&id=8381 The risk of avian flu transferring to the human population is extremely low and this can be borne out in the relatively small number of human cases recorded to date in the vast continent of Asia. Experts predict that if avian flu did come to Ireland (and we are regarded as a relatively low risk country for the flu arriving here) workers handling live poultry would be given bird flu vaccine and anti-viral drugs. So if avian flu did break out in poultry and birds in Ireland, the risk of humans contracting it are relatively low, although the risk of a human dying from it if they get it are fairly high. Experts also stress that even if the H5N1 bird flu arrived here it would not increase the possibility of a human flu pandemic in Ireland. Bird Flu can’t spread and mutate-Science ProvesUniveristy of Wisconsin Madison News, 06 ( Terry Devitt, “Cell Barrier Slows bird flu’s spread among humans”, March 22nd 2006) < http://www.news.wisc.edu/12345> Flu viruses, like many other types of viruses, require access to the cells of their hosts to effectively reproduce. If they cannot enter a cell, they are unable to make infectious particles that infect other cells - or other hosts. Our findings provide a rational explanation for why H5N1 viruses rarely infect and spread from human to human, although they can replicate efficiently in the lungs," the authors of the study write in the Nature report. By looking at human tissues, Kawaoka's group noted that the cells in the upper portions of the respiratory system lacked the surface receptors that enable avian H5N1 virus to dock with the cell. Receptors are molecules on the surface of cells that act like a lock. A virus with a complementary binding molecule - the key - can use the surface receptor to gain access to the cell. Once inside, it can multiply and infect other cells. "Deep in the respiratory system, (cell) receptors for avian viruses, including avian H5N1 viruses, are present," explains Kawaoka, who also holds an appointment at the University of Tokyo. "But these receptors are rare in the upper portion of the respiratory system. For the viruses to be transmitted efficiently, they have to multiply in the upper portion of the respiratory system so that they can be transmitted by coughing and sneezing." The upshot of the new finding, says Kawaoka, a professor of pathobiological sciences at the UW-Madison School of Veterinary Medicine, is that existing strains of bird flu must undergo key genetic changes to become the type of flu pathogen most feared by biomedical scientists. "No one knows whether the virus will evolve into a pandemic strain, but flu viruses constantly change," Kawaoka says. "Certainly, multiple mutations need to be accumulated for the H5N1 virus to become a pandemic strain Directory: files -> documents documents -> North Mankato Taylor Library documents -> In the Red and Brown Water documents -> - documents -> I. Disaster Summary Sheet II. 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