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Oil prices low now - Greek vote AND Chinese countermeasures



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Oil

Oil prices low now - Greek vote AND Chinese countermeasures


Randewich 7/6— Reuters correspondent (Noel, “Stocks and oil drop on concerns about Greece, China,” Reuters, Jul 6, 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/06/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0PF16920150706). WM

Equity markets around the world fell on Monday and U.S. oil prices tumbled 7 percent after Greece overwhelmingly voted against conditions for a rescue package and following unprecedented measures in China to staunch recent massive losses in its stock markets. Wall Street shares fell less than some had feared. The International Monetary Fund reassured investors by saying it was ready to help Greece if asked to do so. European shares fell around 2 percent, a relatively muted reaction to the Greek vote. Beijing introduced emergency measures over the weekend following a 30 percent slide in its stock market since mid-June, raising investors' concerns about the stability of the world's second-biggest economy. Wall Street investors took heart after Greece's outspoken finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, stepped down and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said his government was ready to return to negotiations with creditors in a bid to open shuttered banks. "After the initial knee-jerk reaction, the majority opinion is that there is still a possibility of some sort of a deal that keeps Greece in the euro zone," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia. The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 46.53 points, or 0.26 percent, to end at 17,683.58. The S&P 500 .SPX lost 8.02 points, or 0.39 percent, to 2,068.76, and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 17.27 points, or 0.34 percent, to 4,991.94. TUESDAY SUMMIT Tsipras promised German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Greece would bring a proposal for a cash-for-reforms deal to an emergency summit of euro zone leaders on Tuesday after the surprisingly strong "No" vote in Greece's referendum Sunday. Raising the stakes on the Greek leader, the European Central Bank decided to keep a tight grip on funding to Greek banks, which have been closed for more than a week to avoid a massive outflow of money that could lead to their collapse. U.S. oil prices fell the most in three months after Greece's rejection of the debt bailout terms and after China's measures to support its stock markets. Also taking a toll on the energy market were talks between Iran and world powers to meet a July 7 deadline on a nuclear deal. That deal could release more oil into already oversupplied markets if sanctions on Iran are eased. Benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 declined 5.8 percent, down $3.51 a barrel at $56.82. U.S. light crude CLc1 was 7.17 percent lower at $52.86. "Uncertainty over Greece is bearish for oil," said Olivier Jakob, senior energy analyst at Petromatrix in Zug, Switzerland. "It adds an extra negative factor on top of the turmoil in Chinese financial markets, the recent rise in U.S. drilling rigs and a potential increase in Iranian oil supply." MSCI's all-country equities world index .MIWD00000PUS lost 1.01 percent, while its emerging markets index .MSCIEF dropped 2.13 percent. The euro zone blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index .STOXX50E fell 2.22 percent. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 was down 1.17 percent. The Athens stock market remained shut, but U.S.-listed Greek shares slid. National Bank of Greece's (NBGr.AT) U.S. shares (NBG.N) closed down 12 percent in New York while the exchange-traded fund Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK.K) fell 7.5 percent. The euro was 0.54 percent weaker against the dollar, at $1.1053 EUR=. The dollar index .DXY, a gauge of the greenback against six major currencies, edged up 0.16 percent after earlier hitting its highest point in a month. CHINESE RESCUE MEASURES Chinese stocks market climbed, going against the broader tide of declines in world markets. The CSI300 index .CSI300 of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed up 2.9 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC gained 2.4 percent after brokerages and fund managers vowed to buy massive amounts of stocks, helped by China's state-backed margin finance company. The rapid decline of China's previously booming stock market had become a major headache for China's top leaders, who were already struggling to avert a sharper economic slowdown. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields hovered near their lowest levels in over two weeks as safe-haven demand boosted bond prices. Yields on 10-year Treasuries hit 2.274 percent, their lowest level in over two weeks, while long-dated yields hit their lowest level in nearly one week at 3.088 percent. (Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo and Patrick Graham, by Nigel Stephenson, Lionel Laurent and Alistair Smout in London; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Leslie Adler)

US not affected by spikes -we’re independent


Carroll 15—Politifact reporter( Lauren, “Obama: America is No. 1 producer of oil, gas,” Politifact, January 21st, 2015, http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/jan/21/barack-obama/obama-america-no-1-producer-oil-gas/). WM

The United States is on top of the world in terms of energy production, President Barack Obama said during his sixth State of the Union. "We believed we could reduce our dependence on foreign oil and protect our planet," he said during his Jan. 20 address. "And today, America is number one in oil and gas. America is number one in wind power. Every three weeks, we bring online as much solar power as we did in all of 2008." We decided to check out the data and see if in fact the United States is the world’s top oil and gas producer. As it turns out, the United States passed Saudi Arabia about two years ago in terms of oil production. And we’ve been the top producer of natural gas for more than two decades. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, which tracks global energy production and consumption statistics, generally uses total oil supply production as its most relevant statistic for assessing the world oil market. This statistic includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, condensates, other liquids, such as biofuels like ethanol, and refinery gain. By this measure, in the third quarter of 2014 -- which includes the most recent available data -- the United States produced 14.2 million barrels per day. The next-highest producer, Saudi Arabia, produced 11.7 million per day; and Russia produced 10.5 million per day. Together, that’s about 40 percent of total global production.


Oil prices stable- US production controls key


Bloomberg News 5/18 (“Oil price volatility at lowest in six months,” in The National, May 18, 2015, http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/oil-price-volatility-at-lowest-in-six-months). WM

Oil traded near $60 a barrel as price volatility shrank to the lowest in six months amid speculation over the pace of production growth in the US. Futures were little changed in New York after capping a three-day drop on Friday. A gauge of oil volatility slid 14.7 per cent last week, the most since September 2013. The number of active US rigs drilling for crude slipped by eight to 660 through May 15, the smallest reduction in 23 weeks of declines, data from Baker Hughes shows.   Oil’s recovery from a six-year low is stalling near $60 a barrel amid speculation rising prices will encourage production and sustain a supply glut. US crude inventories are more than 100 million barrels above the five-year average for this time of year, according to government data. “The market seems happy to stay around this area until it sees some movement on US production,” Ric Spooner, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone. “Time may ultimately prove to be a problem. If we don’t start to see output drop away more significantly in the coming weeks, the market may begin to get nervous about it.”

No impact to oil shocks– US reserves check


Neuhauser 12/4 –energy, environment and STEM reporter for U.S. News & World (Alan, “U.S. Oil Reserves Hit 38-Year High,” US News, Dec. 4, 2014, http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2014/12/04/us-oil-reserves-hit-38-year-high). WM

We’re swimming in oil and gas. U.S. oil and natural gas reserves soared to new heights in 2013, unleashed by unconventional drilling methods that extracted more shale oil and gas than analysts previously expected, according to an Energy Information Administration announcement Wednesday. The increase has helped force oil prices to their lowest point in four years. Oil production last year was at its highest in 31 years, the EIA said, driven by controversial hydraulic fracturing – or frackingand horizontal drilling methods that have opened huge oil and gas deposits in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Southwest. As a result of fracking and horizontal drilling, U.S. “proved” reserves of crude oil and condensate – or oil and condensate, a type of ultralight oil, that can be recovered under existing economic conditions and with current technology – surpassed 36 billion barrels last year for the first time since 1975, the EIA said. North Dakota’s oil and condensate reserves alone exceeded those in the federally held sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and ranked second only to reserves in Texas. Overall, the rise in proved reserves of U.S. oil to 36.6 billion barrels, up 9.3 percent over 2012, marked the fifth straight annual increase in reserves. “We know there is oil,” Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., told Bloomberg. “We know it will exceed even the most optimistic forecasts. That’s the huge leap forward. You’re talking about potentially a 50 percent increase in proved reserves in the next three years.” Natural gas reserves also saw a sharp spike, jumping by more than 10 percent to a record 354 trillion cubic feet and reversing a sharp decline that unsettled some analysts in 2012. The expansion was fueled by exploration and production of the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, which together accounted for 70 percent of the increase in gas reserves. Pennsylvania alone saw its gas reserves leap by 13.5 trillion cubic feet – the largest increase in the country.

No Shocks- biggest countries all check with reserves


Neuhauser 12/4 –energy, environment and STEM reporter for U.S. News & World (Alan, “U.S. Oil Reserves Hit 38-Year High,” US News, Dec. 4, 2014, http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2014/12/04/us-oil-reserves-hit-38-year-high). WM

The U.S. proved oil reserves still amount to just a fraction of the reserves of the world’s petroleum powers. Venezuela held the most oil reserves at 298.3 billion barrels last year, Bloomberg said, citing a report by the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Saudi Arabia had 265.9 billion barrels, and Canada 174.3 billion. Nevertheless, U.S. oil and gas production, aided by a sluggish global economy and increasingly fuel-efficient motor vehicles, has been enough to drive oil prices down significantly.




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