Scenario
|
Stock Price
|
Equity Value
(in Billion)
|
Range – Stock price
|
Range – Equity Value (in Billion)
|
Parameter modified and range
|
Realistic goal of 1% market share
|
$102.30
|
96.93
|
$810.83 - $63.79
|
$688.56– 64.71
|
WACC
Base case: 15.48%
Range – 7%-21%
|
93.36 – 656.41
|
89.46 – 559.62
|
Terminal Year Sales Growth:
Base case: 5%
Range 2-14%
|
65.61 – 309.37
|
66.29-269.84
|
This years sales growth
Base case: 54%
Range: 20-70%
|
0.72-206.1
|
12.10 – 183.61
|
Terminal Years ROE:
Range – 5-70%
|
530.79 – 58.63
|
454.74 – 60.47
|
COGS:
Range
Reduces from 71 to 30%
Reduces from 71-70%
|
34.31 – 153.58
|
40.15 – 139.75
|
SG&A:
Range
Reduces from 40 to 15%
Reduces from 15 to 10%
|
6.13-78.6
|
16.62- 77.14
|
R&D/Sales
Range
Reduces from 15-10%
Reduces from 10-5%
|
iTunes reduced content
|
33.31
|
39.32
|
462.62 – 1.63
|
397.80-12.86
|
WACC
Base case: 15.48%
Range – 7%-21%
|
24.51-273.73
|
31.97-240.07
|
Terminal Year Sales Growth:
Base case: 5%
Range 2-14%
|
23.96-250.93
|
32.75-221.04
|
This years sales growth
Base case: 54%
Range: 20-70%
|
214.7-14.83
|
190.79 – 23.89
|
COGS:
Range
Reduces from 71 to 30%
Reduces from 71-70%
|
5.34 – 59.12
|
15.96 – 60.87
|
SG&A:
Range
Reduces from 30 to 15%
Reduces from 15 to 10%
|
0.77 – 20.79
|
12.15 – 28.86
|
R&D/Sales
Range
Reduces from 20 to 5%
Reduces from 10-5%
|
No iPhone
|
34.56
|
40.36
|
335.4 – 11.5
|
291.57 – 21.10
|
WACC
Base case: 15.48%
Range – 7%-21%
|
28.37 – 203.77
|
35.19 – 181.66
|
Terminal Year Sales Growth:
Base case: 5%
Range 2-14%
|
29.36 – 133.97
|
36.02 – 123.37
|
This years sales growth
Base case: 54%
Range: 20-70%
|
156.92 – 22.09
|
142.54 – 29.95
|
COGS:
Range
Reduces from 71 to 30%
Reduces from 71-70%
|
s
|
13.16 – 47.93
|
SG&A:
Range
Reduces from 35 to 15%
Reduces from 15 to 10%
|
0.07 – 22.97
|
11.56 – 30.68
|
R&D/Sales
Range
Reduces from 15-10%
Reduces from 10-5%
|
Commoditize iPhone
|
101.91
|
96.60
|
1186.87 – 27.61
|
1002.56 – 34.56
|
WACC
Base case: 15.48%
Range – 7%-21%
|
79.31 – 719.39
|
77.73 – 612.22
|
Terminal Year Sales Growth:
Base case: 5%
Range 2-14%
|
11.72 – 144.28
|
21.29 – 131.98
|
This years sales growth
Base case: 54%
Range: 20-70%
|
527.62 – 58.51
|
452.09 – 60.36
|
COGS:
Range
Reduces from 71 to 30%
Reduces from 71-70%
|
62.14 – 143.59
|
63.39 – 131.41
|
SG&A:
Range
Reduces from 40 to 15%
Reduces from 15 to 10%
|
33.69 – 88.4
|
39.64 – 85.32
|
R&D/Sales
Range
Reduces from 15-10%
Reduces from 10-5%
|
Exceptional Success
|
317.34
|
276.49
|
3936.38 – 90.03
|
3298.45 – 86.48
|
WACC
Base case: 15.48%
Range – 7%-21%
|
238.58 – 2469.35
|
210.72 – 2073.48
|
Terminal Year Sales Growth:
Base case: 5%
Range 2-14%
|
5.66 – 127.02
|
16.23 – 117.57
|
This years sales growth
Base case: 54%
Range: 20-70%
|
1938.57 – 207.14
|
1179.38 – 184.48
|
COGS:
Range
Reduces from 71 to 30%
Reduces from 71-70%
|
176.48 – 455.53
|
158.87 – 391.73
|
SG&A:
Range
Reduces from 40 to 15%
Reduces from 15 to 10%
|
121.11 – 279.49
|
112.64 – 244.90
|
R&D/Sales
Range
Reduces from 15-10%
Reduces from 10-5%
|
