The climate dynamics of total solar variability


Solar variability and climate dynamics: An framework for analysis



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Solar variability and climate dynamics: An framework for analysis


Rhodes Fairbridge emphasised that the answer to the question,
Does the Sun affect the Earth’s climate?
has to be in terms of three considerations:6


  • the variations in the quantity, intensity and distribution over the Earth of the solar output, including electromagnetic radiation, matter and the Sun’s electromagnetic field;

  • the variable gravitational force the Sun exerts on the Earth, the Moon and the Moon and the Earth as a system; and

  • the interactions between these processes.

In this regard, he seems to have been a relatively lone voice, then as now.


In the language of experimental science, the key solar variables are the independent variables. The dependent variables on which the effect of the independent variables is recorded are a wide range of Earth, or climate relevant, variables.
The relevant key solar, or independent, variables are:


  • the Sun’s variable output of:

    • radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, and

    • matter (largely high energy electrons and protons, but including ions and atoms);

  • the Sun’s variable electromagnetic field; and

  • the Sun’s variable gravitational field especially through the lunisolar tides acting throughout the atmosphere, oceans and planet, including the Earth’s mantle, solid and molten cores; and

  • The Sun’s variable shape.

These solar variables, which are not entirely independent of each other, interact with each other, amplifying total solar impact. Attachment 4 provides an overview of the Sun.


The solar variables affect a wide range of Earth variables in a multiplicity of ways with many pronounced interaction effects that amplify total solar impact.
The main Earth variables, the dependent variables, affected by total solar activity are the following:


  • The atmospheric, oceanic coupled systems, including a differential impact in relation to the structure of the Earth’s atmosphere (troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere). Different solar variables affect different layers of the atmosphere in different ways, sometimes resulting in an amplification of the Sun’s impact.

  • The ocean systems. The Sun’s influence is not confined to heating oceans’ surface from radiant heating, but extends throughout the vertical depth of the oceans principally through the variable effects of the lunisolar tides, which are, in part, the manifestation of the Sun’s variable gravitational field.

  • The tides acting throughout the atmosphere, global electric circuit, oceans and planet, including the Earth’s mantle, solid and molten cores. The cycles of the tides range from twice daily, fortnightly, 27 days and particular multiples of this period, 9.3, 18.6, 62, 93, 222 and 1,500 years and possibly longer periods.

  • The Rossby and Kelvin waves. These are large, slow inertial waves, or oscillations, that move through the atmosphere and the oceans, horizontally and vertically. Inertial waves are generated in any rotating fluid. They are therefore generated by the atmosphere and the oceans being part of the Earth, which is a rotating object. The inertial waves are, amongst other things, an effect of the Coriolis force generated by the Earth’s rotation.

  • The Earth’s rotation.

  • Atmospheric angular momentum.

  • The Earth’s dynamo.

  • The Earth’s electromagnetic field.

  • The global electric circuit.

Like the solar variables, these variables are not entirely independent of each other. They interact with each other, often amplifying total solar impact.


Furthermore, there may be phase synchronisation between solar electromagnetic and gravitational oscillations (i.e. between the solar activity cycles and the lunisolar tides) and possibly the Rossby and Kelvin waves.
Total solar impact is also modulated by two other processes, the Earth’s reflectance (also known as albedo), and cosmic rays.
There is increasing evidence of climate change consequences of the gravitational effects of the other planets on the Sun, Earth, and Moon system. Although tidal effects of the other planets on the Earth are very small, the planets can modify the shape of the orbits of the Earth and the Moon and this has climate consequences.
These processes are separate from the interaction between the orbits of the planets and the orbit of the Sun around the center of mass of the solar system, which is discussed below, beginning on page 33.
In addition, ever present in the background is the gradual, subtle, and complex change in the structure of the Earth/Sun geometry, giving rise to the Milankovitch processes. All of these processes affect the Earth and its dynamo core in different ways.

Solar variability and climate dynamics: overview of specific processes


Rottman (2006) explained that the output from solar activity is the dominant energy input into the Earth’s climate system. The atmosphere absorbs about 20% of solar radiation (globally averaged), establishing its structure, composition and temperature. About 30% is scattered and reflected back into space. The remaining 50% is absorbed at the surface, warming the land and the oceans and sustaining life. Changes in solar output have direct and indirect effects on the Earth’s climate system. According to Rottman (2006), implications of a solar role in the climate system are evident in most climate records.

The Sun’s electromagnetic radiation originates in the Sun’s toroidal (i.e. latitudinal) magnetic fields, whereas the matter produced by the Sun originates in its poloidal (i.e. longitudinal magnetic fields. These are necessarily connected as they are parts of the solar dynamo that drives solar activity. However, they have significant differences, which, in turn, have significant climate consequences.




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