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HSBC: “difficult” year ahead, but growth coming from China’s recovery (The FT Beyond BRICs Blog)



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HSBC: “difficult” year ahead, but growth coming from China’s recovery (The FT Beyond BRICs Blog)


Mar 4, 2013

by Stefan Wagstyl

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/03/04/hsbc-falls-short-but-lifts-dividend/#axzz2MbujOIGE
HSBC, the giant of emerging markets’ banking, disappointed investors with a 6 per cent drop in pre-tax profits to $20.6bn compared to forecasts of a 5 per cent gain to around $23bn.
But with the biggest surprise coming from a $5.2bn accounting adjustment on the value of HSBC’s own debt, Monday’s results weren’t too much of a shock. Nonetheless, the shares fell 2.5 per cent, dragged down not only by the numbers but also by China property market fears.
HSBC itself put a brave face on things, emphasising the fact that that on its own preferred measure – underlying profit before tax – it saw an 18 per cent increase to $16.4bn. It boasted of its progress with chief executive Stuart Gulliver’s streamlining programme, raised dividends and pledged a further increase in 2013.
The bank passed quickly over the “notable items” that “included $1.9bn of fines and penalties paid as part of the settlement with US authorities and the FSA, and additional provisions of $1.4bn in respect of UK customer redress in 2012.” And it had almost nothing to say on the potentially-damaging official investigation into the alleged manipulation of interest rates.
Looking forward to 2013, despite all the regulatory and legal challenges in the US, the UK and elsewhere, the bank is striving to keep focused on growth, including growth in EMs. As Gulliver said in a webcast:
Clearly there is work still to do. However, we have achieved a great deal in 2012. Looking ahead, while the operating environment remains difficult our core business will continue to reap the benefit of recovering economic growth in mainland China in 2013 and its positive impact on other faster-growing regions. We are on the right track and remain fully committed to achieving our goal of being the world’s leading international bank.
Here are the facts and figures, as set out in HSBC’s statement:
· Core tier 1 capital ratio 12.3%, up from 10.1% in December 2011;

· Estimated Basel III end point common equity tier 1 ratio (‘CET1′) 10.3% post-2013 management actions (9.0% at end 2012), providing strong capacity for organic growth;

· Dividends declared in respect of 2012 US$0.45 per ordinary share, up 10% on 2011, with a fourth interim dividend for 2012 of US$0.18 per ordinary share. Total dividends US$8.3bn;

· First three interim dividends for 2013 planned to be US$0.10 per ordinary share, up 11%;

· Announced disposal/closure of 26 businesses and non-core investments in 2012, 4 in 2013, 47 since beginning of 2011;

· Earnings per share US$0.74, down 20% on 2011


Here is the key chart from the EM point of view:
(See Chart)
The overwhelming value of Hong Kong shines through. So do the good gains recorded in mainland China and India and the spectacular advances in some smaller markets, including Indonesia, Mexico and crisis-hit Egypt. But EMs aren’t all plain-sailing: witness the 23 per cent decline in Vietnam.
Investors are broadly satisfied with the bank’s course, even if it is clouded by its legal headaches. While the shares slipped on Monday, they are up around 40 per cent since the start of 2012.


China: property curbs hit stocks (The FT Beyond BRICs Blog)


Mar 4, 2013

by Stefan Wagstyl

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/03/04/china-property-curbs-hit-stocks/#axzz2MbujOIGE
A blunt reminder on Monday on how fragile is the recent recovery in Chinese equities and how vulnerable it is to worries in the property market.
China’s stocks plunged after the state council late on Friday announced increases in downpayments and borrowing rates for buyers of second homes in cities, dragging down the CSI 300 Index by the most in two years, after the government ordered more measures to cool property prices and growth in the nation’s services industries slowed.
China’s State Council announced late on Friday an increase in downpayments and loan rates for buyers of second homes in cities where prices have risen particularly fast. The news drove down property stocks by as much as 10 per cent, and the Shanghai Composite index closed 3.7 per cent down in its biggest daily loss since November 2010.
China’s plunge pulled down stocks across Asia, with the MSCI index of Asia excluding Japan falling 1.7 per cent.
China Vanke, the biggest property developer, fell 9.3 per cent before recovering to close 6.1 per cent lower. Sany Heavy Industry, a leading heavy engineering equipment manufacturer, lost 9.3 per cent.
The latest drop means that the Shanghai composite is now almost back to where it was at the year, with the sell-off over the past month virtually cancelling out the previous gains. At one point it had stood 24 per cent up on its three-year low level hit on December 3.
The latest property market curbs did not come as a complete surprise, given repeated hints about cooling prices given from officials, not least premier Wen Jiabao. But it seems that investors were still shocked to see the state council come out with specific and precise measure.
Investors will be anxiously watching this week’s National People’s Congress in Beijing for more policy indications as the leadership struggles to boost domestic demand while trying to control inflation and the housing market.


China Search Engine Market Share in 2012 (chinainternetwatch.com)


by AMANDA on MARCH 4, 2013

http://www.chinainternetwatch.com/1972/china-search-engine-market-share-in-2012/


According to China search engine market quarterly data in 2012 released by EnfoDesk, the China search engine leader Baidu accounted for 78.6% of the total search engine market, Google for 15.6%, while Sogou 3.1%.
In 2012, Baidu had about 78% of the search engine market share. Its growth tended to slow down since the second quarter of 2012, but kept its share to 78.6%.
Google China in the mainland market, mainly relied on export trade for its search revenue. It’s a good effective channel of the oversea marketing and promotion for China’s domestic advertisers, which also added to Google’s revenue.
Sogou’s market share kept stably increasing, and the impact of the new competitors was low. The “Chinese language input software – Brower – Search Engine” strategy proved to be successful. Sogou Input took its free platform advantage,bringing a huge amount of users together, and drove the brower download and search engine usage. Although in the latter part of the year, Qihoo 360 entered the search engine market, however not affecting the traffic of Sogou search.




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