The Emerging Electrical Markets for Copper
Download 10.26 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- Non-Automotive Traction Applications
- The Renewable Energy Market
- Miscellaneous Applications
- Figure 122: Forecast Power Electronics Market (constant US$ million)
- Market Forecasts by Sector
- Figure 123: Forecast Power Electronics Market (kt Cu)
Power ElectronicsAlternative Technical and Market Solutions Power electronics is the application of solid-state electronics for the control and conversion of electric power. This is a rapidly growing area, as electronic control creates the opportunity for increased energy efficiency, and product functionality, compared to electrical or mechanical control. The technology comprises of semiconductor devices used mainly as switches or rectifiers, usually in integrated circuits (“ICs”, or “modules”), which in turn are connected to PCBs that fulfil the powered function. Some common power devices are the power diode, thyristor, power MOSFET and IGBT. As part of a module design, there is a normally a heat flux path separate from the electric path, incorporating a heat sink. The power module section of the power electronics market has been estimated at US$2.1 billion in 2007, with a two digit annual growth rate40. The market can be split by function as follows: Bipolar modules US$270 million (containing Rectifiers and Thyristors), IGBT Modules US$900 million, Integrated Modules US$200 million (containing rectifier and inverter function), and Intelligent Power Modules US$780 million. The total market size is larger (around US$3.8 billion in 2010), including discrete semiconductor devices. Variable Speed Drives: From an application point of view, more than half of the market (56 %) is in motor drives, in particular industrial motor drives. Power electronics are, therefore, the active component in the Variable Speed Drives (VSDs), an essential part of modern efficient motor driven systems (see Section 4.3.2). For this market, it is very important for module manufacturers to cover a wide power range with a one-module technology platform, as the market itself is modular. VSDs are not new, but they are rapidly gaining penetration in industry. To date, the main applications have been alongside industrial pumps and fans, although compressor systems are also important. VSDs are used with motor driven systems that have a variable load. Before the advent of VSDs it was normal to operate a pump or fan at full speed, and the desired rate of flow of liquid or gas being achieved by ‘throttling’ the output by means of valves, vanes or other mechanical devices. By matching output to load electronically with a VSD can lead to energy savings of up to 50%. Where once used mainly alongside large industrial motors, VSDs are now finding applications in with small industrial machines, in commercial and residential premises, and with quite small equipment such as room air conditioners. But, the depth of penetration of this technology is still quite limited. It is estimated that at present only around 10% of motor driven systems with variable loads are used with a VSD. Non-Automotive Traction Applications: The next larger application for power electronics is for traction, associated with trains and other rail systems, commercial and military vehicles. This sector has an estimated 8% market share. For this application, the highest reliability and long term availability through multiple sources are key factors. The Consumer Market: The consumer market has a share of 10%. Here, intelligent power modules are favoured. In the low horse power range, fully integrated power modules are offered in single-in-line or dual-in-line packages. The Automotive Market: This is a small but fast growing segment of the power electronics business, with an estimated 5% share but an annual growth rate approaching 20% p.a. A large portion of this market, and the main growth area is for high voltage systems associated with hybrid and electric vehicles. This is a technically demanding market, with high ambient temperatures and a high number of thermal cycles. More details of this sector are provided in Section 2 of this Report. The Renewable Energy Market: This is also a small but fast growing segment of the power electronics business, with an estimated 6% share but an annual growth rate over 20% p.a. Both wind power and solar PV power, the two main growth areas in renewable energy, are power electronics intensive. Power modules for wind power have similar requirements to modules for traction applications. A very high intermittent operating lifetime, long term availability, high reliability, and suitability for harsh environments are prerequisites. More details of this sector are provided in Section 3 of this Report. Miscellaneous Applications: Applications other than those specified above account for around 15% of the power electronics market. The other applications include a significant power electronics in the electricity grid associated with DC/AC and AC/DC high voltage inverters. Technology Trends: Progress in power chips and ever increasing requirements for lower cost, higher quality and reliability and reduced size drive the technical evolution of the power electronics business. The same issues of ensuring interconnectivity and thermal management that apply to electronics in general apply to power electronics (see Section 4.3.5). We are seeing a trend to replace solder contacts by sintering for higher temperature and more reliable devices. Also, wire bonds are being replaced by welded contacts, while modules are being designed to mechanically integrate more functions, even where there is higher power throughput. To fulfil the greater demands placed on the power model, new packaging concepts, such as SKiN, are being developed. An alternative approach, most suitable for rugged constructions in a high temperature environment, is to un-pack power modules into their separate components. Highly integrated power electronic systems can be constructed without the use of power modules, starting the assembly from mounting substrates to a heat sink and to stack power and control layers on top. This is the option now being employed in the emerging automotive market. Figure 122: Forecast Power Electronics Market (constant US$ million) 
Market Forecasts by Sector In Figure 122 we present forecasts of the power electronics market by value. The figures are based on consensus views as to the likely growth of the power electronics industry and specific developments by sector. In particular, we identify particularly rapid growth in the automotive sector, which is almost entirely related to high voltage systems in hybrid and electric vehicles. Renewable energy generation, mainly from wind power and solar PV generation, will also be a major contributor to growth. The Impact on Copper Copper content figures are based on our estimates of the copper to value ratio in each market segment. We believe that these ratios are likely to be fairly constant, forces pulling the copper content down in relation to value (downsizing, substitution by cheaper materials) being fully balanced by forces working in the opposite direction (necessity of using copper for heat dissipation and other reasons, reduction in supplier margins over time). Figure 123: Forecast Power Electronics Market (kt Cu) 
Overall, power electronics is expected to show strong growth, increasing by more than 150% as a market for copper between 2010 and 2020 to reach 165 ktpy. As this is already a substantial market, power electronics as a whole does not meet the criteria for a new market, as defined in this report. Two submarkets, do meet the criteria, however. The automotive market for power electronics is expected to rise from around 5 kt in 2010 to 41 kt in 2020. Taking the market for power electronics in hybrids and electric vehicles alone, this market is expected to rise from around 2 ktpy to 35 ktpy globally. Europe’s share of the automotive market for power electronics is expected to rise, reaching around one-fifth of the global total in 2020. The renewable market for power electronics may also be regarded as a new market. Globally, this is forecast to expand from 4 kt in 2010 to 14 kt in 2020. Europe’s share is expected to decline from around 40% to 25%. Power electronics is mainly a market for copper in the form of strip and foil, although some rod and bar, and wire products, is also used. Directory: wordpress -> wp-content -> uploads -> 2017 uploads -> Professor rona s beattie and dr david bamaung glasgow caledonian university email for corresponding author uploads -> Best Offensive Players: qb #19 keenan reynolds, N, ’16. Lg #57 E. K. Binns, N, ’16 uploads -> Smart Supervision Research Partner Orientation Course fy13 and fy14 Grantees September 29- october 1, 2015/San Antonio, tx uploads -> Autonomous Control for a Reliable Internet of Services (across) 2017 -> 6 Thai Market Analysis 2017 -> Birchwood intermediate school 2017 -> Operation corporate 2017 -> This document is written for the amateur radio operator that will be using the PiGate as an emergency communications device in a disaster situation Download 10.26 Mb. Share with your friends:
|