The Rate Debate Slowing
Yes Real - Geological Data
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Yes Real - Geological DataWarming true - geological data McGuire 12 (Bill McGuire, professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College of London, 7/10/12, "Climate change is not science fiction, Jeremy Clarkson," The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/jul/10/climate-change-science-fiction-jeremy-clarkson) The bottom line is that rapid climate change drives a hazardous response from the Earth's crust – fact! The idea is not new and – in scientific circles – is not even controversial. We have a huge amount of data gleaned from the 20,000 years that has elapsed since the end of the last ice age, which saw one of the most dramatic transformations in our planet's history; from frigid wasteland to the broadly clement world we are familiar with today. The changes in stress and strain in the crust that resulted from melting of the 3km-thick continental ice sheets and a 130m rise in global sea levels, saw Lapland wracked by massive quakes associated today with places like the Pacific "ring of fire", while volcanic outbursts on Iceland increased 30 times. There is plenty of evidence too, for seismic shakings and volcanic rumblings, during this period, right across the planet. With the climate once again changing at least as rapidly as during post-glacial times, we are already seeing a seismic response to the loss of ice mass in Alaska, and a rise in the frequency of giant landslides as a reaction to heat waves across mountainous regions. How widespread and obvious the future response of the Earth beneath our feet will be to continued planetary warming, remains uncertain. Clearly, however, the potential exists for unmitigated climate change to bring about a significant and hazardous riposte. Yes Real - Sea Level RiseSea level rise is real Lemonick 12 (Michael Lemonick, senior staff writer at Climate Central, former senior staff writer for Time, 7/12/12, "Climate Change: It Could Be Worse Than We Think," Climate Central, http://www.climatecentral.org/news/sea-level-rise-it-could-be-worse-than-we-think/) A new analysis released Thursday in the journal Science implies that the seas could rise dramatically higher over the next few centuries than scientists previously thought — somewhere between 18-to-29 feet above current levels, rather than the 13-to-20 feet they were talking about just a few years ago. The increase in sea level would largely come from the partial melting of giant ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica, which have remained largely intact since the end of the last ice age, nearly 20,000 years ago. But rising global temperatures, thanks to human greenhouse-gas emissions, have already begun to melt that ancient ice, sending sea level up 8 inches since 1880 alone, with as much as 6 feet or so of additional increase projected by 2100. That’s not enough to inundate major population centers by itself, but coupled with storm surges, it could threaten millions of Americans long before the century ends. Around the world, sea level rise will put trillions in property at risk within the next few decades. West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Twenty-nine feet of sea-level rise, by contrast, or even 18, would put hundreds coastal cities around the globe entirely under water, displacing many hundreds of millions of people and destroying untold trillions in property. It would, in short, be a disaster of unimaginable proportions. Yes Real - Tree RingsWarming is real - tree rings Speidel & Li 11 (Gisela Spidel, Outreach Specialist, International Pacific Research Center AND Jinbao Li, QIT, 5/9/2011, "Researchers discover tree rings tell a 1,100-year history of El Nino," University of Hawaii at Manoa) An international team of climate scientists from the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa recently found that annually resolved tree-ring records from North America, particularly from the U.S. Southwest, give a continuous representation of the intensity of El Niño events over the past 1,100 years and can be used to improve El Niño predictions. The study, spearheaded by postdoctoral fellow Jinbao Li and co-authored by meteorology professor Shang-Ping Xie of the International Pacific Research Center, was published in the May 6 issue of Nature Climate Change. Tree rings in the U.S. Southwest, the team found, agree well with the 150-year instrumental sea surface temperature records in the tropical Pacific. During El Niño, the unusually warm surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific lead to changes in the atmospheric circulation, causing unusually wetter winters in the U.S. Southwest, and thus wider tree rings; unusually cold eastern Pacific temperatures during La Niña lead to drought and narrower rings. The tree-ring records, furthermore, match well existing reconstructions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and correlate highly, for instance, with d18O isotope concentrations of both living corals and corals that lived hundreds of years ago around Palmyra in the central Pacific. “Our work revealed that the towering trees on the mountain slopes of the U.S. Southwest and the colorful corals in the tropical Pacific both listen to the music of El Niño, which shows its signature in their yearly growth rings,” explained Li. “The coral records, however, are brief, whereas the tree-ring records from North America supply us with a continuous El Niño record reaching back 1,100 years.” The tree rings reveal that the intensity of El Niño has been highly variable, with decades of strong El Niño events and decades of little activity. The weakest El Niño activity happened during the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the 11th century, whereas the strongest activity has been since the 18th century. 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