The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict


China Building Airstrip on 3rd Artificial Island, Images Show



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China Building Airstrip on 3rd Artificial Island, Images Show


By JANE PERLEZSEPT. 15, 2015

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A satellite image of Mischief Reef taken on Sept. 8. Credit Center for Strategic and International Studies, via Reuters





BEIJING — New satellite images show that China has started construction of an airstrip on a third artificial island in the South China Sea that will strengthen Beijing’s military capacity in the contested waters, Western analysts say.

The photographs, released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, show preparation for airfields on Mischief Reef and Subi Reef, submerged reefs in the contested Spratly Islands that China has transformed into islands, according to the center.

The airstrip on Mischief Reef is about 20 miles from a small Philippine military garrison on an existing tiny island and will put the installation under great pressure, said James Hardy, Asia-Pacific editor of IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly.

That airstrip will most likely be used for turboprop patrol, but it could easily be equipped for “full military action” if needed, Mr. Hardy said. The most important function of the strip, he said, will be as yet another site for Chinese listening devices and early warning radar, much like the technology being installed on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands of the South China Sea, which are also contested. Evidence of that will probably appear soon on Mischief Reef, he said.

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Interactive Feature: What China Has Been Building in the South China Sea

China completed a 10,000-foot runway several months ago on Fiery Cross Island, one of five artificial islands it has created in a large reclamation project in the South China Sea this year.

The South China Sea is one of the top areas of disagreement between China and the United States that will be discussed during a state visit by President Xi Jinping to Washington next week.

The Obama administration has called on China to stop land reclamation, construction and militarization of South China Sea outposts, a policy that Washington calls the “three noes.”

Washington has expressed concern that the military capacity on the reclaimed islands will interfere with freedom of navigation in the area, one of the world’s busiest waterways. With these military runways, the zone of competition between the United States and China across the South China Sea has expanded significantly, experts say.

But China has rebuffed Washington, repeatedly saying that it has “indisputable sovereignty” over about 80 percent of the South China Sea and the right to build what it wants on the Spratly and Paracel archipelagoes.

In June, China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing would stop reclamation on the five artificial islands but would continue to build facilities on them. At the time of the statement, Beijing appeared to have finished much of the reclamation carried out by large flotillas of dredges.

After a speech to Chinese and Western journalists in Beijing on Tuesday, Yang Xiyu, a senior fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, said “difficulties between the United States and China on the South China Sea will continue for a long time.”

There is little chance, he said, that the sharp differences will be resolved at the meeting between Mr. Xi and President Obama. The best that can be expected is a “consensus” to manage the differences, he said.

In April, when satellite images showed that China was building the 10,000-foot runway on Fiery Cross, 170 miles west of Mischief Reef, American military analysts called the installation a strategic game changer. The size of the runway meant a fighter jet could land on the island, they said.

NYT

Warily Eyeing China, Philippines May Invite U.S. Back to Subic Bay


By JAVIER C. HERNÁNDEZSEPT. 19, 2015

Inside


Supported by

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The crew of a small fishing vessel docked in the waters of Subic Bay. Credit Jes Aznar for The New York Times

SUBIC BAY, Philippines — In a flash of anticolonialist fervor nearly a quarter-century ago, lawmakers in the Philippines expelled the United States from an enormous naval base here, then the largest overseas outpost of the American military. Promising to break free from the “shackles of dictatorship,” they declared that foreign troops would never return.

But with China forcefully pressing its claim to a vast expanse of sea west of here, the Philippines is now debating whether to welcome the United States Navy back to the deepwater docks, airstrips and craggy shores of Subic Bay, which served as a haven for bruised battleships and weary soldiers during the Vietnam War.

It is also asking Washington for hundreds of millions of dollars in new funding to strengthen its own military, one of the weakest in Asia.

The change of heart is just one sign of the shifting strategic calculations in the region as President Xi Jinping of China has sought to reinforce Beijing’s claim to almost all of the South China Sea by turning reefs into islands and putting military facilities on them. Satellite photos taken last week appear to show China preparing to build a third airstrip on one of the new islands.

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Renato Etac, 35, the boat’s captain, says Chinese vessels routinely chase and try to ram his ship. “I can’t even count the Chinese ships I see, there are so many,” he said. Credit Jes Aznar for The New York Times

United States officials have objected to the buildup in contested waters, and the dispute is expected to be high on the agenda when Mr. Xi meets President Obama in Washington on Thursday. Even as China has accelerated construction, though, the Obama administration has struggled to coordinate a response in Asia, where many leaders are not sure how hard they should push back against China, the region’s economic giant, and how much they should rely on the United States, its dominant military power.

Several nations lay claim to parts of the South China Sea, through which pass some of the world’s busiest shipping routes and which is believed to hold significant oil and natural gas deposits. But China’s push to establish the sea as its own has hit closer to home in the Philippines than almost anywhere else.

An island with a civilian Filipino population is in the disputed area, and Chinese forces have occupied reefs and shoals the Philippines once controlled. “The fight hasn’t even started yet, and it looks like the Philippines government has already surrendered,” said Renato Etac, 35, a fishing boat captain who says Chinese vessels there routinely chase and try to ram his ship. “I can’t even count the Chinese ships I see, there are so many.”

Last year, the government in Manila signed a 10-year agreement that would let the United States station troops, weapons and matériel at bases across the Philippines, setting the stage for an American return to several facilities, including Subic Bay and the sprawling Clark Air Base nearby. But the pact has been tied up by a legal challenge.

Filipinos, by a wide margin, hold favorable views of the United States, polls show. There is ambivalence, however, about allowing American troops to be stationed in the country — a concern amplified by the Philippines’ history as an American territory from 1898 to 1946 — and anxiety over how China might respond.

“When the elephants brawl, ants should be spared,” said Rene Augusto V. Saguisag, one of a group of former senators who voted to expel American troops in 1991 and has petitioned the Philippines Supreme Court to block the military agreement. “The U.S. and China should leave us alone and not involve us in the quarrels of the strong.”

Washington has expressed frustration with the delay in carrying out the agreement, which President Obama announced with fanfare during a visit to Manila last year. The case is not expected to be decided in the Philippines Supreme Court until later this fall at the earliest.

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If it goes forward, the pact would give the United States the ability to operate a stronghold on the shores of the South China Sea, less than 500 miles from the new islands built by the Chinese. Currently, American forces in the region rely largely on bases more than 1,500 miles away, in Japan and the United States territory of Guam, for repairs.

The Philippines, prized for its deep, sheltered waters, is a linchpin in the Pentagon’s effort to shift resources toward Asia. The Subic Bay base, roughly the size of Singapore, played a role in virtually every American conflict of the 20th century. United States and Japanese forces battled to control it in World War II, and millions of American personnel passed through it every year during the Vietnam War.

The base was reborn as an economic development zone after the American withdrawal in 1992. Luxury villas were erected atop former ammunition bunkers, and a marine park was built along the shore. Outside the local government here, a statue of a woman holding a dove celebrates the American withdrawal and a plaque reads: “Unchain us now.”

In addition to the legacy of American rule of the Philippines, another hurdle to military cooperation is the decrepit state of the Philippine armed forces, which have long suffered from waste and corruption.

Despite a recent effort to modernize its military, the Philippines still lacks basic equipment, including submarines and fighter jets. The most famous vessel in its fleet may be the Sierra Madre, a decaying World War II-era ship that the government ran aground nearly two decades ago to protect a contested reef. American military aid to the Philippines has increased significantly in recent years, more than doubling last year to $50 million. But that is less than the hundreds of millions the United States provided during the Cold War, when the Philippines was used to counterbalance Soviet support of Vietnam.

In private talks, the government of President Benigno S. Aquino III has pressed the United States for up to $300 million in aid this year, arguing that it needs a substantial buildup of planes and ships to deter Chinese expansionism, according to a senior Philippine official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because United States officials have asked to keep the talks confidential.

But the Obama administration has so far rebuffed the request because it worries about corruption and the Philippines’ capacity to handle such an influx of resources. A spokeswoman for the State Department noted that the Philippines was already the largest recipient of American military aid in Southeast Asia.

“The issue of the West Philippines Sea is a shared responsibility of the Philippines and the United States,” said Fernando I. Manalo, a Philippine defense official, who used the local term for the South China Sea in arguing for joint investments in military upgrades.

But Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska, a Republican member of the Armed Services Committee, said it would take time to rebuild trust between the two countries.

“If you look at what happened in Subic Bay, that was a pretty abrupt turnaround by the Philippines,” he said, referring to the American expulsion in 1992. “I think memory probably lingers in both the Philippines and the United States.”

On Pag-asa island, home to about 100 residents in territory claimed by the Chinese, Mayor Eugenio B. Bito-onon Jr. has promised to resist what he calls the “Chinese invasion.”

“This is a question of preserving our existence,” he said during a visit to Puerto Princesa, a nearby city, pointing to a wall-sized map that he uses to track the advances of Chinese ships and construction work.

Mr. Bito-onon, 59, said he was worried that the Philippines was too weak to stand up to China, and that allies like the United States were too timid. “We seem to have lots of leaders and allies with no strong direction,” he said.

The Philippines has deployed coast guard ships in an effort to protect reefs and shoals from Chinese advances, and it has announced plans to station fighter jets and frigates at Subic Bay next year. It has also lodged a complaint before an international tribunal at The Hague, arguing that China’s claim to almost the entire 1.4 million square miles of the South China Sea violates international law. Chinese officials have said they will ignore the court’s ruling, contending that territorial disputes should be resolved through direct negotiations between the two countries.

In Manila last month, the top United States commander in the Pacific, Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., told Philippine officials that the United States did not want to take any military action that might distract from the case at The Hague, according to an individual briefed on the talks. But Admiral Harris also said that the United States planned to conduct more patrols in the South China Sea, the individual said.

Some Filipinos are worried that relying on the United States will delay efforts by the Philippines to build its own military. Others are concerned that the United States, despite its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, is too distracted by its fight against terrorism in the Middle East to help them.

“We can’t simply trust that others will come to save the day,” said Maria Turco, 42, a teacher in Subic Bay. “We have to take ownership.”



Directory: tlairson -> china
china -> The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol 11, Issue 21, No. 3, May 27, 2013. Much Ado over Small Islands: The Sino-Japanese Confrontation over Senkaku/Diaoyu
china -> Nyt amid Tension, China Blocks Crucial Exports to Japan By keith bradsher published: September 22, 2010
china -> China Alters Its Strategy in Diplomatic Crisis With Japan By jane perlez
tlairson -> Chapter IX power, Wealth and Interdependence in an Era of Advanced Globalization
tlairson -> Nyt india's Future Rests With the Markets By manu joseph published: March 27, 2013
tlairson -> Developmental State
china -> The Economist Singapore The Singapore exception To continue to flourish in its second half-century, South-East Asia’s miracle city-state will need to change its ways, argues Simon Long
tlairson -> History of the Microprocessor and the Personal Computer, Part 2
china -> The Economist The Pacific Age Under American leadership the Pacific has become the engine room of world trade. But the balance of power is shifting, writes Henry Tricks

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