The U.S. military is firm in its belief that the J-10 is derived from the Lavi, as demonstrated in the unclassified report "Worldwide Challenges to Naval Strike Warfare" by the Office of Naval Intelligence. In the report, ONI said:
The design has been undertaken with substantial direct external assistance, primarily from Israel and Russia, with indirect assistance through access to U.S. technologies.
As more information seeps out (or is leaked) from Chinese sources, there are growing expectations that the J-10 will go into quantity production. Several main systems, notably the engine and radar, are apparently still to be decided. Of all the Chinese aircraft under development, however, this desi gn has the best balance of improved performance, suitability for likely requirements and the ability to be manufactured with a reasonable expenditure of resources.
The J-10 may have been produced based on a single F-16 provided by Pakistan and then included additional technology from the Lavi program, as reported on Dec. 4, 2002, in the Asia Times. The article said the J-10's radar system will be the Israeli ELM-2021, which can simultaneously track six airborne targets while locking on to the four most threatening targets.
Chinese contracts with Russia to license-build versions of the Su-27 Flanker (designated the J-11 in Chinese service) may indicate a lack of faith in the J-10 design. However, China also concluded a deal with Russian engine maker SRPC Salyut for AL-31F engines for the J-10 program.
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