Coordination of Monitoring and Evaluation

Chapter 8: Risk and sustainability measures

This chapter identifies the primary risks to the Multisectoral Tourism Development Programme and suggests ways to increase the sustainability and resilience of the programme. It considers risks associated with the environment, climate change, financing, life of the projects after initial inception, human capacity and ownership.

Figure 8.1 Possible Risks in Tourism Projects

Risk	Potential Impact	Mitigation/Adaptation
Environmental Risk	Pollution	Following of environmental procedures Monitoring of environmental risks Establish risk management plans
Climate change risk	Increasing concentration of CO2 in atmosphere with subsequent impacts to climate and weather patterns	Improvement of air transport management systems and processes Climate Change Policy Framework Strengthening of institutional and legal frameworks Monitoring, mitigation and adaption packages
Financial risk	Discontinuity of funding Government experiencing financial problems	Secure required funding before the programme starts
Life span	Unforeseen problems during project execution Getting competent management and enough funding	Make available all inputs and critical success factors Recruit managers and other staff based on skills and experience
Security risk	Unpredictability and volatility in the political environment Political instability-terrorism, riots, coups, civil war, insurrection etc.	Measures within the MTDP to improve security conditions Public communications strategy
Ownership risk	Sharing of the jurisdiction of the project	Adopting ownership by agency - ministry, departmental or community levels
Human capacity risk	Lack of competent work force with skills and knowhow	Make training needs assessment of tourist sector Establishment of new programmes to cater for the industry

8.1 Environment

Environment risks are a part of many tourism and related projects, particularly construction, as materials and chemicals that are used during the construction and operation periods can pollute the surrounding area. This can lead to fines for company that is involved in the construction, which can be incredibly expensive and at times cause the entire project to shut down. Properly following environmental procedures will help protect the project from these risks. They can also be prevented with good management. A thorough environmental impact assessment can avoid most problems. Careful selection of the contractor with necessary certification and experience can do the same.

8.2 Climate Change

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  Rise of sea levels - Low-lying islands will be submerged and tourism development in these and coastal areas is under threat.‎
  
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  Seawater intrusion - the rise of sea levels in turn causes intrusion, making water along the coast very saline and unsuitable for domestic consumption. The Zanzibar First President’s Office has already identified more than 76 areas experiencing this problem.
  
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  Desertification and the scarcity of water – this makes regions less hospitable for both local communities and tourists.
  
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  Deforestation and the deterioration of biodiversity – affecting both the ecosystem and directly reducing the global carbon sink, while also discouraging demand for such destinations.
  
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  Bleaching of the coral reef: Coral reefs are major attractions in Zanzibar, not only attracting ‘sea lovers’ but also importantly being home to many creatures. However, the increasing of temperatures and seawater pollution destroys the coral.
  

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  Put in place a Climate Change Policy Framework
  
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  Abiding the international procedures and standards and industrial initiatives
  
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  Reviewing of the transport taxes and charges
  
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  Strengthening of an institutional and legal frameworks
  
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  Publishing and disseminating educational material to the general public who are most vulnerable.
  

3. Financial risk

8.4 Life span period

At the initial and execution stages projects may find a safe haven by having the financial backing of donors but problems may rise when this financial source is exhausted. It is therefore of extreme importance to ensure that all the projects and programmes exist beyond the initial financial backing.

One thing that can help the projects and programmes survive is the careful appointment of its office bearers. It should also include a risk analysis and a definition of criteria for the successful completion of each deliverable. Frequent reporting to stakeholders may also help the efficiency and accountability of the programme. As the executing stage proceeds the programme must be well monitored and evaluated so that adjustments can be made.

8.5 Human capacity risk

Local residents have already shown some grievances arguing that they are employed in cheap and lower cadres and not in the managerial positions.

8.6 Security Risk

These risks or constraints fall into three main categories namely "transfer risk", concerning risk to capital payments; "operational risk", with threats over local source or content; and "ownership control risk", highlighting possibilities of expropriation or confiscation. Others are the political instability-terrorism, riots, coups, civil war, and insurrection. The last group mainly affect the safety and security of the tourists and their properties as the tourists are very sensitive to them. If security problems worsen, despite the projects aimed at improving the situation within the MTDP, tourists will be put off coming to Zanzibar and targets will not be met.

8.7 Ownership Risk

Where state ownership (public) assets are owned by the state or certain state agency and has jurisdiction over its use, in common ownership assets and property are held in common by all members of society. In collective ownership however, assets and property belong to a collective body of people who control their use, collect and control their operation.

As all projects are intended to create a conducive tourism environment and not business for its excellence the Government may adopt ownership by its agency be it the ministerial, departmental or community levels.

8.8 Sustainability

In responding to these demands, tour operators now carbon offset to compensate for the energy used in travel, for example. These companies also invest in the local economy, and encourage their patrons to do the same, promoting visits to local businesses, native craftspeople and so forth, to ensure that more funds reach the local community. They organise briefings before trips to address such issues as religious beliefs, cultural traditions, and other issues that tourists may encounter with aim allowing people to witness and participate in traditional cultures without altering them.

It also involves an active contribution to the community. Tourists might volunteer with local organisations and help provide health care, housing, and other services to needy people in the community. Others might participate in environmental cleanups or donate to nonprofits and charities that serve the area.

Further, it is supporting the integrity of local cultures by favouring businesses which conserve cultural heritage and traditional values, supporting local economies by purchasing local goods and participating with small, local businesses, contributing to intercultural understanding and tolerance.