Ubern report 9/02/2006
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- Granger causality of North Atlantic SSTs on the occurrence of temperature extremes
| igure 1. Lagged SST (up to six months) influence on the NAO calculated over all months. Shown is the p-value of the Omega statistic Granger causality test.
Figure 2 presents the areas where prior values of the NAO have a significant influence on north Atlantic SSTs. F  igure 2. Lagged NAO (up to six months) influence on SST calculated over all months. Shown is the p-value of the Omega statistic Granger causality test. Granger causality of North Atlantic SSTs on the occurrence of temperature extremes Here we use the same VAR model to investigate the influence of SSTs on the occurrence of the monthly frequency of temperatures above the long-term 90th percentile (index name; tx90) at two selected stations, Central England Temperature (CET) and Bern, Switzerland. Figures 3 and 4 show the areas of lagged (up to thee months) SST which are statistically related to the occurrence of temperatures above the 90th percentile at CET and Bern, respectively. The results presented here represent the mean relationship over all months, no account for the seasonal variation has been made. For CET tx90 we see that a large area of SSTs surrounding the British Isles extending southward and westward into the Azores region are areas where we can expect some predictability (red in colour) of extreme temperatures. F  igure 3. Lagged SST (up to three months) influence on the CET tx90 series calculated over all months. Shown is the p-value of the Omega statistic Granger causality test. The area of lagged SSTs that may provide some predictability for extreme temperatures in Bern, Switzerland is somewhat different from those for CET. For example, SSTs in the Mediterranean as w  ell as SSTs in the central north Atlantic west of the Iberian Peninsula (Figure 4, read and yellow areas) appear to have some influence on Bern extreme temperatures. Directory: projects projects -> H1N1 Pandemic 21-393 Fall 2009 projects -> Terminal Decision Support Tool Systems Engineering Graduate Capstone Course Aiman Al Gingihy Danielle Murray Sara Ataya projects -> Rajinder Sachar Committee projects -> Cape Lookout National Seashore Historic Resource Study By projects -> Cape Lookout National Seashore Historic Resource Study By projects -> Revolutionizing Climate Modeling – Project Athena: a multi-Institutional, International Collaboration projects -> What is a Hurricane? projects -> General Information projects -> Press Information projects -> 1 Introduction 3 2 Designing an Embedded System 4 Download 0.97 Mb. Share with your friends:
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