12 ln(TOUT
t
)=β
0
+β
1
ln(TOUT
t-1
)+β
2
ln(PT
t-1
)+β
3
ln(MP
t-1
)+β
4
ln(ATG
t
)+β
5
SQ
t-
1
+β
6
T+β
7
T
2
+µ
t
…………………………………………………………………………….....(3.2) where β
0
= regression intercept β
1
to β
7
= regression coefficients ln(TOUTt)= natural log of total tobacco output in tonnes ln(TOUT
t-1
)= log of lagged total tobacco output ln(PT
t-1
)= natural log of lagged tobacco price ln(MP
t-1
)= natural
log of lagged maize price, expressed in US dollar terms per tonne ln(ATG
t
) = natural log of annual population
of active tobacco growers SQt-1
= dummy variable for the years with sales quota taking the value of 1 in years in which sales quota applies and 0, otherwise T simple time trend (t for 1980 tot for 2015); T quadratic time trend (t for 1980 tot fort random error term with zero mean and constant variance.
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