University of zimbabwe faculty of social studies department of economics
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3.2.2
Independent Variables
Total tobacco output (lnTOUT
t-1
)
Total tobacco
output in million tonnes
, lagged by one period. The inclusion of this variable is justified in the Cobweb theorem by Kaldor (1934)
which states that
, if more output is
supplied in the current period
, then current producer prices are likely to fall due to acting market forces and in realising this fall in prices farmers are likely to reduce production
and supply low quantities in
13 the next successive season. Therefore an inverse relationship between lagged tobacco output and current tobacco output is expected.
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