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Relations bad – Asia instability
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Relations bad – Asia instabilityUS-China alliance will increase tensions with East Asian allies who rely on US to deter ChinaLohaus 16 (Phillip Lohaus, former Department of Defense analyst, currently a research fellow with the Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. June 9, 2016. “China Plays By Its Own Rules,” US NEWS, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-06-09/chinas-actions-require-more-us-cooperation-with-pacific-allies) Every year, the top decision-makers of the international security world – and those who follow them – meet for the Shangri-La Dialogue, named after the Singapore hotel at which the conference is typically held, to discuss Asian security issues. These dialogues are usually genteel and formal, the kind of meeting where one is more likely to hear bromides than to exchange barbs. But this year's conference was different. China's increased assertiveness – especially in the waters of the South China Sea, through which $1.2 trillion of American trade flows, and the East China Sea, which borders Japan and Taiwan – was at the forefront of everyone's mind. Fortunately, recent developments in Asian capitals have created an opportunity for the U.S. to take a lead on constraining China's advances, but whether the U.S. government is up to the task remains to be seen. Why is China's behavior a concern? China has been improving its strategic position for decades. It's hardly news that China's tolerance for risk has correspondingly increased, and that its military has modernized at an alarming clip. For years, many chose to look past these facts, hoping that as China rose, it would behave in ways that were in line with the rules-based international order. But its recent activities suggest that it is more interested in playing by its own rules. Beijing likely rejects the American position, for example, that the Law of Armed Conflict should be applied to cyberspace, and recently reorganized its military to better compete in this realm. Through its openly published "three warfares" strategy, it has pursued activities aimed at wearing down the populations of its adversaries, at manipulating information to suit its interests and at exploiting loopholes in international law for its own advantage. Actions such as the building of artificial islands in the South China Sea or the unilateral declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea in 2013 are just parts of an incremental strategy to expand control. America's response to Chinese provocations has been insufficient. Although the "pivot to Asia" is commonly thought of as a tool to create a counterbalance to Chinese power in the region, the administration's public position toward China has been one of increased cooperation. The implementation of "the pivot" has hardly curtailed Chinese aggression; if anything, its anemic implementation may have worsened the situation. The declining readiness of America's navy and the reduction of its regional maritime presence to "photo ops" signaled to Beijing that a window of opportunity had opened for it to assert its ambitions more quickly and with more aplomb. Deterring China from acting counter to U.S. interests will take more than a "pivot," it will take persistence and presence, in the maritime domain, yes, but also in the realms of information, cyber and space. But because deterring China is also in the interest of the nations that surround it, America won't have to deter China alone, and now is a particularly auspicious time for the U.S. to deepen cooperation with its Pacific allies and partners. Take Japan. In addition to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's internal reforms to Japan's national security infrastructure, such as establishing a National Security Council to coordinate responses to threats, his government recently implemented an initiative that expands Japan's ability to cooperate with the U.S. and other allies on defense issues. In 2014, Japan overturned a ban on defense exports, which makes available one more tool to cement relations between Japan and countries that share a similar outlook on security issues. Furthermore, the recently revised security cooperation guidelines between the U.S. and Japan specifically call for enhanced cooperation on a number of issues, including in the realms of cyberspace and outer space, where Chinese actions have been of particular concern. Or take Taiwan. Former President Ma Ying-jeou sought to expand economic ties to mainland China, and made history by meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in January of this year. But the recent election of President Tsai Ing-wen, from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, has cooled relations between the two capitals. Tsai has already shown that she is far less risk-averse than her predecessors when it comes to relations with the mainland, marking an opportunity for the U.S. to expand its ties with Taipei. Expanding military-to-military cooperation with Taiwan will better deter China from launching an attack against the island, which the U.S. is bound by treaty to defend. Allies in other parts of Asia are also increasingly willing to work together and with the U.S. to curtail the Chinese threat. The Philippines recently agreed to allow U.S. troops to position there on a rotational basis, for example, and the recent souring of relations between South Korea and China, coupled with the rapprochement between Seoul and Tokyo on the "comfort women" issue, signals an opportunity for enhanced trilateral cooperation between Japan, South Korea and the United States. As evidenced by the recent lifting of a decades-old weapons embargo, the U.S. is in the process of turning Vietnam, a prior enemy, into a security partner, and further to the south, America's staunch ally, Singapore, is increasing its cooperation with another U.S. ally, Australia. Download 357.18 Kb. Share with your friends:
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