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- Obama’s political capital is key to repeal of Jackson-Vanik
Jackson-Vanik DA1NC Jackson-Vanik DA 1/3Jackson-Vanik will be repealed now – administration is pushingErik Wasson, 5-6-2012, “Nine tasks Congress can’t avoid,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1007-other/225631-nine-tasks-congress-cant-avoid Russia is slated to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO) by July 23 and unless Congress acts, U.S. exports to Russia will face new discrimination after that date. At issue is the Jackson-Vanik amendment, enacted in the 1980s to punish the Soviet Union for preventing Jews from emigrating to Israel. The amendment technically conditions most-favored-nation trading status on congressional monitoring and approval. Under the terms of the WTO, however, MFN status must not be conditional. Unless the U.S. removes Russia from Jackson-Vanik, Russia will have the right to deny U.S. exports the lower barriers it gives other WTO members. The administration is pushing for a clean Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) bill. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) are leading a fight to tie it to a bill freezing the assets of the accused murderers of Russian whistleblower Sergei Magnitsky. Action on that bill could clear the way for PNTR passage next month. Obama’s political capital is key to repeal of Jackson-VanikCorey Boles, staff writer, 2-29-2012, “White House Pushes for Russia Trade Agreement,” WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203753704577254192095999600.html?mod=googlenews_wsj WASHINGTON—The Obama administration on Wednesday began a public push for Congress to permanently lower trade barriers with Russia, arguing the move would benefit U.S. exporters and aid a crack down on trading violations by Moscow. U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk told lawmakers on the House Ways & Means Committee that permanently granting Russia "most favored nation" status would enable the U.S. to challenge anti-competitive practices by the country, and ensure that U.S. exporters are on level footing with foreign competitors in tapping the Russian market. "We have been very plain," Mr. Kirk said at a congressional hearing on the administration's trade priorities. "This is something collaboratively we need to achieve." But the White House likely faces a tough slog in getting the Russia measure through the House and Senate later this year, with lawmaker expressing concern over Moscow's positions on Syria and Iran and its own internal political situation. "I think there'll be a lot of resistance in Congress to normalizing trading relations with Russia given their actions in Syria and Iran," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.), a leading voice on foreign policy for the Republican party. Democrats in the House and Senate agreed. "I don't think there's a real sentiment to pass a trade agreement [with Russia] this year," said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D., Ohio). Rep. Sander Levin (D., Mich.), the top Democrat on the ways & means panel, cited Russia's actions over the deteriorating situation in Syria and fears of vote fraud in Russia's March 4 presidential election as complicating factors for a Russia trade vote to pass in Congress. Russia blocked an attempt earlier this month by the U.N. Security Council to take actions against the brutal crackdown on protestors by the Syrian regime. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is expected to easily win election as president in the weekend poll, although the results will be closely watched for evidence of manipulation by his government. Russian officials have said the country won't honor WTO commitments with the U.S. if Congress doesn't repeal the trade restrictions. Officials at the Russian Embassy in Washington weren't immediately available for comment. Rep. Dan Burton (R., Ind.), chairman of the House subcommittee on Europe and Eurasia, predicted the Russia measure will nonetheless pass Congress. "If you're saying we ought to be doing business with China, how can you say we shouldn't be doing business with a huge emerging market like Russia," Mr. Burton said. Russia is set to join the World Trade Organization by August, and will be required to lower its tariffs by as much as 50% for other countries in the trade organization. The U.S. must in turn repeal a decades-old trade measure preventing Russia from benefitting from lower tariffs on its U.S. exports, or American exporters won't benefit from Russia's new WTO membership. Several leadership aides this week said there hadn't been any discussions yet about how the Russia matter might be handled in Congress. Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D., Mont.), who just returned from Moscow, called it a "no-brainer" that Congress would permanently normalize relations with Russia. Rep. Dave Camp (R., Mich.), the chairman of the Ways & Means Committee said at Wednesday's hearing that he was looking to "the administration to build confidence and provide leadership on the economic and non-economic issues." < Insert Specific Link Here – Plan Costs Political Capital >1NC Jackson-Vanik DA 2/3Russian PNTR is key to relations and prevents US-Russia warJeffrey Mankoff, Council for Foreign Relations, 9-7-2010, “Changing Course in Moscow,” Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66743/jeffrey-mankoff/changing-course-in-moscow?page=show Russia’s new course has already produced some results, most importantly in relations with the United States. In part, the warmer tone between the two countries is the result of the Obama administration’s “reset” policy, but Moscow, too, has proven more receptive to Washington’s outreach than in the last several years. In recent months, Russia and the United States signed the so-called New START nuclear arms reduction treaty, cooperated on sanctions against Iran (always a sensitive subject in Moscow), and agreed to open new supply routes for the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. In June, Medvedev traveled to Silicon Valley to drum up investment for a high-tech center the Kremlin is building outside of Moscow. His biggest success was convincing Cisco Systems to invest $1 billion in Russian technology ventures, providing a tangible vote of confidence on the part of the U.S. business community. Yet it remains too early to pronounce an end to the West’s difficulties with Russia. Although Medvedev is constitutionally responsible for steering Russian foreign policy, Putin remains powerful as prime minister, especially in light of speculation that he will return to the Kremlin in 2012. Below the offices of president and prime minister, Russia’s bureaucracy is unwieldy and resistant to change, and much of the military and security services remain overtly hostile to the West. And as the leaked Foreign Ministry document suggests, Russia has not given up its great power ambitions, even though it may desire better relations with the West. Finally, a fusion of state and corporate power in Russia has given oligarchs and managers of state corporations the ability to block initiatives that threaten their economic interests -- such as opening up the Russian economy to foreign competition. It is also impossible to separate the new direction in foreign policy from the economic downturn, which has cast doubt on Russia’s post-Soviet economic model of relying on a heavily centralized, state-dominated energy sector to the exclusion of innovation and entrepreneurship. When the Russian economy was booming, Moscow felt confident enough to ignore many of the policy preferences of the United States and the European Union. But as oil prices fell and Russia’s economy started contracting, this hubris became harder to maintain. If oil prices start climbing again and Russia’s fiscal situation improves, Moscow may well conclude that an energy-fueled status quo is preferable to the expensive and uncertain prospect of modernization. If so, the case for better relations with the West could be badly undermined -- which suggests that Western leaders have an interest in taking advantage of the current moment to emphasize they are serious about putting relations with Russia on a new foundation. How can the United States convince Moscow that it has more to gain from enhancing its cooperation with the West, regardless of oil prices? A major reason why U.S.-Russian relations have been so unpredictable is that the relationship is largely focused on hard security issues and not on economic ties. Last year, U.S.-Russian bilateral trade was only $25.3 billion (less than one-twentieth of U.S.-Chinese trade), and only four percent of foreign direct investment in Russia came from the United States. The Obama administration should do more to encourage trade with and investment in Russia, including launching a strategic economic dialogue with Moscow and making a concerted push in Congress to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment. Russia’s ascension to the WTO is particularly important, since membership would make a reversion to energy-driven mercantilism more difficult. The United States should put the ball firmly in Russia’s court, identifying as a priority Russia’s membership in the WTO by the end of the year and providing technical assistance to overcoming outstanding disputes (including addressing Georgian objections). Directory: file -> fetch fetch -> 11 th Lit Semester 1 Final Study Guide!!! fetch -> Industrial Revolution Inventors fetch -> Analysis for Galveston Hurricane of 1900 fetch -> The Illuminators (Team 2) 1900 Galveston Hurricane Cycle a team Assignment fetch -> Team csi-utb ruth Reyes Jose Ferrer fetch -> Galveston Hurricane of 1900 Cycle a-teacher as a Problem Solver fetch -> Is Climate Change Starting a New Dust Bowl? 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