Yemeni Report Explores Al-Qa'ida's 'New Strategy' in Southern Yemen

A resident of Jaar told Xinhua that a military plane was flying low over the central area of Jaar city since early Sunday morning.

A local source told Xinhua on Friday that AQAP announced through Abyan Radio Station that they warned the government army to rapidly withdraw from all lands of their "Islamic Emirate" in Abyan or they would by killed by AQAP's ready suicide squads.

Abyan, some 480 km south of the capital Sanaa, is a key stronghold of resurgent al-Qaida wing which has carried out frequent attacks against the Yemeni security and military personnel since 2009.

Yemen has witnessed weeks-long anti-government protests demanding an immediate end to the 33-year rule of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The political crisis recently resulted in deterioration of security and stability after the government pulled the police out from some towns of major provinces under pretext of avoiding friction with protesters.

[Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency)]

Yemeni Papers Carry Reports on Clashes in Ja'ar Between Army, Gunmen

GMP20110408195002 Yemen -- OSC Summary in Arabic 08 Apr 11

On 8 April, Al-Masdar Online and Ma'rib Press carry two reports on clashes in Ja'ar, Abyan Governorate. Following is a summary of these reports:

Sanaa Al-Masdar Online in Arabic (Website of independent weekly newspaper, critical of government policies; URL: http://www.al-masdar.com/) carries a 300-word report saying that "violent clashes broke out today in the outskirts of the city of Ja'ar in Abyan Governorate, southern Yemen, between gunmen and the Army Forces which sent a military campaign in an attempt to take control of Ja'ar."

The report cites Al-Masdar Online correspondent Ziyad al-Mihwari as saying that a "military campaign was mobilized since early morning from the 25th Mechanized Brigade located southeastern Zinjibar, capital of the governorate, with tanks, artillery, and dozens of military units."

Al-Mihwari is further cited as adding that "clashes erupted between the gunmen and the Army Forces in the village of Al-Makhzan three kilometers from Ja'ar, where gun and heavy artillery fire was heard."

The report cites local sources as saying that "armed men from the residents of the city of Ja'ar and neighboring regions had seized control of the city after security forces withdrew and handed them the headquarters of the security forces about two weeks ago."

The report further says that "there were blackouts in some areas in Abyan after some high-tension cables were cut amid the clashes."

The report further says that "opposition forces accused President Salih of ordering the withdrawal of security forces for the sake of allowing radical gunmen to take control of some regions. The objective of this move was to 'scare' the international community with the threat posed by Al-Qa'ida which is active in Yemen. "

Ma'rib Ma'rib Press in Arabic (Independent news website focusing on Yemeni affairs; URL: http://www.marebpress.net/) carries a 200-word report, saying: "Today, Army units shelled areas where Jihadist groups had been stationed in Ja'ar, Abyan Governorate."

The report adds that "since morning, army forces, using tanks, artillery, and machineguns, have been shelling locations believed to host groups affiliated with Al-Qa'ida. Thus far, there has been no information as to the damage caused by the shelling except material damage to the building of the Malaria Institute and the home of a resident in the region of Al-Makhzan."

The report cites unnamed eyewitnesses in Ja'ar as saying that they saw "some shells explode in the air, the shrapnel of which fell on homes without causing any injuries worth mentioning." The eyewitnesses are further cited as saying that "the local Abyan radio station, which had fallen under the control of the mujahidin, repeatedly warned residents in Ja'ar, Al-Makhzan, and neighboring villages against approaching areas where the army and its weapons were located. They said in their statements that they had cars loaded with explosives which they were planning to detonate at any moment."

The report adds that "power has been completely cut off from the city of Zinjibar since 1000 [ 0700 GMT] because of the damage caused to the power lines by the shelling."

Report Says Yemeni Opposition Assures US To Fight Al-Qa ida After Regime Quits

GMP20110408825001 London Al-Hayah Online in Arabic 08 Apr 11

[Report by Khalid al-Haruji from Sanaa: "Yemeni Opposition Gives Americans Guarantees To Combat Al-Qa'ida If Regime Changes"]

Unlike what both deposed Egyptian President Husni Mubarak and Tunisian President Zine Elabidine Ben Ali Yemeni have done, Yemeni President Ali Abdallah Salih has not yielded to the continuing protests demanding that he step down. As he wages a battle for survival against opposition political parties and hundreds of thousands of youths staging sit-ins at the Al-Taghyir [change] Square and at the Al-Hurriyah [freedom] Square in Sanaa, and in most Yemeni governorates, he has opted to use numerous cards that may earn him domestic tribal sympathy as well as regional and international support. He has primarily aspired to garner Arabian Gulf and US support. However, the sympathy and support that he had received at previous times failed him this time.

Over the past two months, President Salih, who appeared alone in the battle, has held dozens of meetings and delivered numerous speeches. From early February up to the first week of March, he held more than 30 meetings, including a meeting with the professors and students of the Sanaa University; a second meeting with the ruling General People's Congress Party's Standing Committee; a third with both the National Assembly and the Consultative Council; a forth with the commanders of the armed forces and of the security agencies, as well as a meeting with loyalist youths. In the same period, he held more than 25 meetings with Yemeni tribesmen who were brought to Sanaa from various governorates.

In the current confrontation, President Salih focuses his efforts on gaining the support of Yemeni tribes. His attention to tribes comes at the expense of other social factions, notably the educated elite, politicians, youths, and even army and security personnel, whom he does not trust. He focuses on the tribes because of the great role they play and the influence they wield in political life in Yemen. In addition, tribes can be easily influenced and persuaded by the justifications he constantly repeats, particularly because most of the tribesmen, who are brought to meet with him to declare their support, rely mainly for information on Yemeni affairs on the reports that are carried by the official television, which reflects the viewpoint of the Yemeni authorities.

Observers say that the dozens of speeches that President Salih delivered in the past eight weeks carried the same theme. They say that in all his speeches, President Salih was keen on sending two key messages: One to the Yemeni people and another to the regional and international audience. In his message to the Yemeni people, he has sought to raise their fear of the growing protests, of responding positively to the demands of the opposition political parties, and of the youths staging sit-ins. He says those demands are aimed at disrupting security, destabilizing the country, kindling a destructive civil war, paving the way for the separation of south Yemen from north Yemen, enabling the Huthists to seize control of Sa'dah Governorate in the north, and establishing a state based on the former imamate regime, which ruled Yemen before the September Revolution of 1962. He went so far as to accuse the opposition political parties of creating the crisis of butane gas shortages on the markets and the hikes in the prices of foodstuffs.

In his message to the regional and international audiences, President Salih seeks to raise their fear of the prospect of the Islamic trend's seizing control of Yemen in the event his regime is ousted. He warns of the effects that Yemen will have on regional countries if his regime collapses. He mainly focuses on the great danger posed by Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula [AQAP] to Western, particularly US, interests, in the region and beyond. He seeks to capitalize on the US fears, which have grown over the past few years, fears that US officials have constantly expressed. The US Administration's fears have grown as a result of the current political crisis in Yemen, because it is very concerned about having a role in any political settlement in Yemen.

As the situation in Yemen has continued to deteriorate over the past few weeks, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates voiced his fears that the disturbances in Yemen might deflect the country's attention from fighting AQAP, which, in the eyes of Gates, is regarded "the most active and most violent wing of Al-Qa'ida, and which uses Yemen as a launch pad." In an interview with the US network ABC late in March, Secretary Gates said that the ouster of the Yemeni president will create a real problem for the United States in the fight against Al-Qa'ida. The United States, which cooperates with President Salih and with Yemeni security agencies in combating terrorism, fears the prospect that the regime that will succeed President Salih may not cooperate with the United States in combating terrorism. This is particularly true because the current Yemeni authorities permit the US forces to carry out military operations against Al-Qa'ida elements in Yemeni territories while claiming responsibility for these operations on behalf of the United States. In addition, President Salih permitted the US Administration to open four centers manned by US cadres in Ma'rib, Shabwah, Abyan, and Hadramaut for fighting terrorists.

According to Yemeni legal sources, the Yemeni authorities cooperate with the United States in the so-called "war on terrorism" away from the Yemeni constitutional institutions. These sources asserted to Al-Hayah that President Salih's permission to the United States to open centers for hunting down Al-Qa'ida elements in Yemeni territories and his approval for US spy planes to carry out direct attacks on Al-Qa'ida elements deep into Yemeni territories were all on his direct instructions and without the approval of the concerned institutions in the country, notably the National Assembly. They said President Salih's conduct constitutes a flagrant violation of national sovereignty. The US-Yemeni cooperation in this field is linked to President Salih and to those who receive instructions directly from him without any regard to putting Yemeni civilians in harm's way.

Yemeni politicians are of the view that President Salih was keen on continuing Yemeni-US cooperation in the war on terrorism in this manner, first in order not to restrict himself to procedures that may reveal the reality and level of the danger that Al-Qa'ida organization represents and, second, to continue to brandish this card now and then in the face of the United States either to get more financial or political support. With these two goals in mind, President Salih attached no importance or regard to such issues as sovereignty and danger to civilians. He thus facilitated the US Administration's missions and operations in Yemen.

Western diplomatic sources in Sanaa said that Washington is well aware of the danger that Al-Qa'ida organization posse in Yemen, but its interests were in conformity with President Salih's. They pointed out that achieving these interests required both parties to exaggerate the danger of Al-Qa'ida organization. They told Al-Hayah that President Salih exaggerated the size and danger of Al-Qa'ida in order to get financial and political support, and the United States helped to achieve its goals of having a foothold in Yemeni territories through its intelligence personnel and forces, which are stationed in the Gulf of Aden and at Bab el Mandeb. So both parties have used Al-Qa'ida as s scarecrow to achieve their interests

According to these Western diplomatic sources, the United States has recently become convinced that the regime of President Salih is no longer useful, and that he is incapable of introducing any kind of reform. They said that Washington recently received confirmed information through its intelligence downplaying the danger of Al-Qa'ida and, at the same time, raising the possibility of establishing close and fruitful cooperation with the party that will take power from President Salih. As a result, the US Administration sees the violence that the Yemeni security forces are using against protesters, who are peacefully demanding the downfall of the President Salih's regime, as a favorable opportunity to pressure Salih to hand over power peacefully, particularly after a large number of Yemeni protesters have been killed.

In addition to the assurances that the US Administration has received from the Yemeni opposition parties in the JMP regarding Al-Qa'ida, Muhammad Qahtan, official spokesman for the JMP asserted that any regime that will take power after Salih's ouster will be a serious and effective partner in the combat against terrorism and Al-Qa'ida. In a press statement, he accused Presidents Salih's regime of exploiting the danger of Al-Qa'ida to blackmail the international community. According to observers, all President Salih's attempts to pressure the United States by using the issue of Al-Qa'ida to garner its political support against those demanding that he step down have failed. This however does not mean that the United States will ignore Al-Qa'ida or believe that it poses no danger the United States as much as ushering the beginning of a new phase in the confrontation with that organization in cooperation with the future regime in Yemen.

[Description of Source: London Al-Hayah Online in Arabic -- Website of influential Saudi-owned London pan-Arab daily. URL: http://www.daralhayat.com]

Analysis: AQAP Moves Toward Greater Engagement in Yemeni Politics

FEA20110518017979 - OSC Feature - Jihadist Websites -- OSC Analysis 18 May 11

Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) appears to be making its first entry into conventional Yemeni politics, apparently seeking to capitalize on Yemen's political unrest. The group now uses the name Ansar al-Shari'ah when acting as a political organization in areas it claims are, at least partially, under its control. Ansar al-Shari'ah's first statement, observed on 16 May, a month after AQAP announced its creation, strongly differs from AQAP rhetoric and does not bear markings from Al-Qa'ida's Al-Fajr Media Center or AQAP's media arm, Al-Malahim.

AQAP Shari'ah official Adil al-Abbab was the first AQAP leader to publicly acknowledge AQAP's use of the Ansar al-Shari'ah Movement title in areas of Yemen under presumed AQAP control. In a live interview on the Internet chat service PalTalk, Al-Abbab enumerated such areas, saying that more resources would enable the group to "have a more open presence" in these regions (19 April).

# Al-Abbab introduced Ansar al-Shari'ah as "a title we carry in the areas under our control so as to make people understand the purpose of our struggle."[ 1] He listed Sa'dah, Abyan, Al-Jawf, Ma'rib, and Al-Aj'aar as areas under at least partial AQAP control, adding that "there are also cells in Sanaa preparing to work." [ 2]

# Noting the impact of the group's resource limitations, Al-Abbab claimed that "what is keeping us from coming out in the open more completely is that we lack many administrative personnel and the money with which to offer services to the people." [ 3]

Ansar Al-Shar'ah Statement Differs From AQAP Rhetoric

Unlike AQAP's standard rethoric, Ansar al-Shari'ah's first statement, undated but observed on 16 May on the Ansar al-Mujahidin Network, laid out specific, democratic-sounding political goals and measures to uphold Islamic moral code. The statement avoided standard references to "jihad" or "mujahidin," as well as Al-Qa'ida watermarks or symbols.

# Aligning itself with the protesters, the movement declared: "We have raised the banner of monotheism at the sit-in square in Sanaa in the name of Ansar al-Shari'ah." The group called for a "revolutionary high council," wherein "each district...will publicly and transparently select a member to represent it."[ 4]

# Ansar al-Shari'ah also promised to "hold accountable all of the corrupt and influential figures who achieved their...wealth at the expense of the people" and to "close down dance clubs, prohibit alcohol, music, and places that deal in vice." [ 5]

Xinhua: Al-Qaida Militants Attack Yemen's Southern City

CPP20110520968209 Beijing Xinhua in English 1443 GMT 20 May 11

[Xinhua: "Al-Qaida Militants Attack Yemen's Southern City"]

[Computer selected and disseminated without OSC editorial intervention]

SANAA, May 20 (Xinhua) -- Al-Qaida militants launched a fierce attack on government forces in Yemen's provincial capital of the southern troubled province of Abyan on Friday, killing at least one citizen and injuring several security forces, a local security official told Xinhua.

Abyan, some 480 km south of the capital Sanaa, is a key stronghold of resurgent AQAP which has carried out frequent attacks against the Yemeni security and military personnel since 2009.