10nfl1-Nukes-Cover

10NFL1-Nuclear Weapons Page 1 of 199 www.victorybriefs.com
TOPIC ANALYSIS BY RYAN HAMILTON
11
TOPIC ANALYSIS BY TARA NORRIS
16
TOPIC ANALYSIS BY CHRISTIAN KEIL
22
TOPIC ANALYSIS BY TODD RAINEY
30
TOPIC ANALYSIS BY CAMERON BAGHAI
37
TOPIC ANALYSIS BY SAAD ASAD
49
AFFIRMATIVE EVIDENCE
54
D
ETERRENCE FAILS

54
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
ARE
NOT
GUARANTEED
TO
DETER
NON-NUCLEAR
STATES
IN
CRISES
54
NUCLEAR
ADVANTAGES
DO
NOT
PROVIDE
A
COERCION
BENEFIT
VIS-À-VIS
OTHER
NUCLEAR
STATES
54
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
DO
NOT
DETER
OTHER
WMD
55
ANY
ACCIDENTAL
USE
OF
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
WILL
BREAK
DOWN
DETERRENCE
55
DETERRENCE
FAILS
DUE
TO
THE
POTENTIAL
IRRATIONALITY
OF
STATE
LEADERS
55
GROUPTHINK
MAY
COMPROMISE
LEADERSHIP
RATIONALITY
56
DETERRENCE
FAILS
DUE
TO
THE
RISK
OF
UNAUTHORIZED
USE
56
NUCLEAR
DETERRENCE
STILL
ENCOURAGES
PHYSICAL
COERCION
BETWEEN
NUCLEAR
STATES.
57
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
ARE
INSUFFICIENT
TO
STOP
WAR
BETWEEN
NUCLEAR
AND
NON-NUCLEAR
STATES.
57
NUCLEAR
DETERRENCE
IS
COUNTERINTUITIVE
TO
CREATING
PEACE.
57
NUCLEAR
DETERRENCE
IS
BASED
UPON
THE
IMAGE
OF
ARMAGEDDON
EVENTUALLY
LEADING
US
TO
DESTRUCTION.
58
NUKES
HAVENʼT
BEEN
USED
BECAUSE
OF
LACK
OF
STRATEGICITY
AS
OPPOSED
TO
DETERRENCE.
58
A
COMMITMENT
TO
DETERRENCE
IS
A
COMMITMENT
TO
PROLIFERATION.
58
NUKES
ARENʼT
ABLE
TO
ADEQUATE
SECURE
A
COUNTRY
LIKE
CONVENTIONAL
MILITARY
FORCES.
59
NUCLEAR
WAR
ISNʼT
IRRATIONAL
–
IT
JUST
SEEMS
SO
BECAUSE
THE
STAKES
ARE
SO
HIGH.
59
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
DECREASE
GLOBAL
SECURITY
AND
INTERNATIONAL
INSTABILITY
60
D
ETERRENCE IMMORAL

61
DETERRENCE
IS
IMMORAL.
61
DETERRENCE
IS
NOT
MADE
MORAL
BASED
ON
THE
CONDITIONAL
ACTIONS
OF
OTHER
COUNTRIES.
61
INTENDING
TO
USE
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
CONDITIONALLY
CAN
BE
MORALLY
OBJECTIONABLE,
EVEN
IF
THEY
ARE
NEVER
USED
62

10NFL1-Nuclear Weapons Page 2 of 199 www.victorybriefs.com
NUCLEAR
DETERRENCE
VIOLATES
THE
JUS
IN
BELLO
CONDITIONS
OF
JUST
WAR
DOCTRINE
62
NUCLEAR
RETALIATION
WOULD
BE
AN
IMMORAL
RESPONSE
TO
A
NUCLEAR
ATTACK
63
DETERRENCE
VIOLATES
THE
WRONGFUL
INTENTIONS
PRINCIPLE
63
THE
CONDITIONAL
NATURE
OF
DETERRENCE
THREATS
DOES
NOT
EXONERATE
THEM
FROM
THE
WRONGFUL
INTENTIONS
PRINCIPLE
64
THE
TECHNOLOGY
INVOLVED
WITH
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
RISKS
USING
THEM
AGAINST
STATES
WHO
ARE
NOT
CULPABLE
FOR
ANY
HARM
64
THE
USE
OF
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
WILL
NECESSARILY
HARM
INNOCENTS
65
THE
PRINCIPLE
OF
PROPORTIONALITY
IS
SHORT-CIRCUITED
BY
A
LACK
OF
NEGOTIATION
TIME
65
NON-COMBATANT
IMMUNITY
MUST
BE
MAINTAINED.
HARM
TO
CIVILIANS
CANNOT
BE
“MINIMIZED.”
66
MCMAHANʼS
DEONTOLOGICAL
CRITICISM
OF
NUCLEAR
DETERRENCE
66
BENEFITS
OF
MCMAHANʼS
APPROACH
VERSUS
THE
DEONTOLOGISTʼS
ARGUMENT
67
DETERRENCE
“BLUFFS”
RESULT
IN
LYING
TO
THE
PUBLIC
67
NUCLEAR
DECISIONS
LACK
ANY
FORM
OF
DEMOCRATIC
CHECKS
67
NUCLEAR
DETERRENCE
IS
ABSOLUTELY
IMMORAL.
68
NUCLEAR
DETERRENCE
IS
AN
IMMORAL
AND
PARADOXICAL
THREAT.
68
NUCLEAR
DETERRENCE
IS
USELESS
AND
IMMORAL
ONCE
A
WAR
STARTS.
69
NUCLEAR
WAR
WILL
KILL
CHILDREN
AND
THAT
IS
UNMISTAKEABLY
IMMORAL. 70
THE
MERE
POSSESSION
OF
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
IS
A
THREAT
TO
THE
PEACE 70
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
ARE
INTRINSICALLY
ILLEGITIMATE,
DISARMAMENT
IS
THE
ONLY
SOLUTION
71
THE
POSSESSION
OF
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
CONSTITUTES
A
GRAVE
THREAT
TO
THE
WORLD.
71
N
UCLEAR ACCIDENT RISK

72
THE
PURSUIT
OF
DETERRENCE
IS
MAKING
THE
RISK
OF
ACCIDENTAL
LAUNCH
HIGHER
72
NUCLEAR
DETERRENCE
CONTRIBUTES
TO
A
POSSIBILITY
OF
ACCIDENTAL
LAUNCH.
72
PROLIFERATION
MAKES
ACCIDENTAL
LAUNCH
LIKELY
72
WEAPONS
ARE
CURRENTLY
ON
HAIR-TRIGGER
ALERT-
THE
LIKELIHOOD
OF
AN
ACCIDENT
IS
HIGH.
73
N
UCLEAR THEFT
/
TERRORISM

74
THERE
IS
ALWAYS
A
RISK
OF
NUCLEAR
THEFT.
74
THEFT
IS
ALWAYS
POSSIBLE,
AS
ADVERSARIES
CAN
ADAPT
TO
CHANGES
IN
SECURITY.
74
THEFT
IS
AN
EMPIRICALLY
VERIFIED
POSSIBILITY
–
THERE
HAVE
BEEN
AT
LEAST
18
CASES.
74
THE
SOLUTION
TO
NUCLEAR
TERRORISM
HAS
TO
BE
PREEMPTIVE
–
ONCE
THEY
GET
NUKES,
ITʼS
OVER.
75
GUARDING
BORDERS
DOESNʼT
SOLVE
NUCLEAR
TERRORISM.
75
THE
USA
NO
BUENO
AT
SECURING
ITS
OWN
NUKES.
76
EACH
NEW
PROLIFERATOR
INCREASES
THE
RISK
OF
NUCLEAR
TERRORISM
76
TERRORISTS
CAN
GET
NUKES
FROM
STATES
LIKE
PAKISTAN
77
THE
ODDS
OF
A
NUCLEAR
TERRORIST
ATTACK
ARE
HIGH
78

10NFL1-Nuclear Weapons Page 3 of 199 www.victorybriefs.com
THE
RISK
OF
NUCLEAR
TERRORISM
IS
HIGH
–
TERRORISTS
HAVE
THE
MEANS
TO
ACQUIRE
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
79
TERRORISTS
COULD
EASILY
ACQUIRE
AND
TRANSPORT
A
NUCLEAR
WEAPON 80
THE
LIKELIHOOD
OF
A
NUCLEAR
TERRORIST
ATTACK
IS
HIGH-
SUCH
AN
ATTACK
WOULD
GUARANTEE
MASSIVE
DESTRUCTION.
80
STOPPING
PROLIFERATION
IS
KEY-
THE
MORE
COUNTRIES
WITH
NUKES,
THE
GREATER
THE
LIKELIHOOD
OF
A
NUCLEAR
TERRORIST
ATTACK.
81
NOT
ALL
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
ARE
SECURE-
IT
ONLY
TAKES
ONE
TO
ALLOW
FOR
A
NUCLEAR
ATTACK.
81
NATIONS
LIKE
RUSSIA
AND
PAKISTAN
HAVE
THE
PERFECT
CONDITIONS
FOR
LOOSE
NUKES
TO
GET
INTO
THE
WRONG
HANDS.
82
PAKISTAN
IS
A
MAJOR
SECURITY
CONCERN-THE
NEW
COMMAND
SYSTEM,
TERRORIST
PRESENCE,
AND
UNCLEAR
REGULATIONS
MEANS
TERRORISTS
CAN
GET
A
HOLD
OF
VALUABLE
INFORMATION.
82
RUSSIA
IS
VULNERABLE
TO
THEFT
OF
NUCLEAR
MATERIAL.
83
UNEMPLOYED
NUCLEAR
EXPERTS
GUARANTEES
INFORMATION
WILL
FALL
INTO
THE
WRONG
HANDS.
84
P
ROLIFERATION RISKS

85
UNLESS
WE
ALL
DISARM,
EVERY
STATE
WILL
EVENTUALLY
HAVE
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS.
85
TONS
OF
KNOWLEDGE
ON
HOW
TO
CREATE
NUKES
EXISTS-
COMBINED
WITH
TONS
OF
NUCLEAR
MATERIAL,
THERE
IS
A
LARGE
LIKELIHOOD
OF
A
NUCLEAR
ATTACK.
85
NEW
PROLIFERATION
WILL
TRIGGER
A
NUCLEAR
ARMS
RACE
86
PROLIFERATION
MAGNIFIES
THE
RISK
OF
EVERY
IMPACT
87
NUCLEAR
SPREAD
WILL
CAUSE
GLOBAL
NUCLEAR
WAR
89
PROLIFERATION
MEANS
THAT
EVERY
MAJOR
CONFLICT
WILL
INEVITABLY
GO
NUCLEAR
90
PROLIFERATION
INCREASES
INSTABILITY
92
N
UCLEAR WAR IMPACTS

93
A
NUCLEAR
BOMB
WILL
FLATTEN
A
CITY.
93
A
NUCLAR
BOMB
WILL
PRODUCE
A
MASSIVE
FIREBALL
INCINERATING
INHABITANTS
OF
A
CITY.
93
NUCLEAR
WAR
WILL
DESTROY
ALL
LIFE.
93
NUKES
CANNOT
DIFFERENTIATE
BETWEEN
SCHOOLS
AND
HOSPITALS
FROM
ENEMY
COMBATANTS
LIKE
SOLDIERS
CAN.
94
NUCLEAR
WAR
WILL
KILL
1
BILLION
PEOPLE.
94
NUCLEAR
WAR
WILL
ALTER
THE
OZONE
LAYER.
94
NUCLEAR
FALLOUT
WILL
STARVE
THE
PLANET.
95
THE
REMAINING
RADIATION
WILL
BE
ENOUGH
TO
KILL
THOSE
WHO
SURVIVE
THE
BLAST.
95
MODERN
CIVILIZATION
AS
WE
KNOW
IT
WOULD
BE
DESTROYED.
PREPARE
FOR
MASSIVE
EPIDEMICS
AS
THE
BODIES
BEGIN
TO
THAW.
95
NUCLEAR
WAR
WOULD
BLOCK
OUT
THE
SUN.
96
NUCLEAR
WAR
WILL
ACCELERATE
CLIMATE
CHANGE.
96
ECONOMICALLY,
POLITICALLY,
AND
SOCIALLY
NUCLEAR
WAR
WILL
UPEND
SOCIAL
STRUCTURES
OF
COUNTRIES.
96
SOME
OF
THE
EFFECTS
OF
NUCLEAR
WAR
ARE
UNKNOWN;
WORSE
EFFECTS
MAY
ARISE
FROM
THEM.
97

10NFL1-Nuclear Weapons Page 4 of 199 www.victorybriefs.com
THE
ENVIRONMENT
IS
KEY
TO
HUMAN
SURVIVAL
–
NUCLEAR
WINTER
FINISHES
OFF
HUMANITY.
97
A
USE
OF
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
TODAY
WOULD
DEVASTATE
DEMOCRACIES
98
NUCLEAR
WAR
IMMEDIATELY
KILLS
400-500
MILLION
PEOPLE.
98
THE
RADIATION
AND
NUCLEAR
WINTER
RESULTING
FROM
NUCLEAR
WAR
ENDS
HUMANITY.
99
NUCLEAR
WAR
ESCALATES
TOO
QUICKLY
TO
BE
STOPPED
BEFORE
EXTINCTION.
100
ONE
NUCLEAR
WEAPON
HAS
AWFUL
IMPACTS
ON
BIODIVERSITY,
THREATENING
TO
ANNIHILATE
THE
WORLD
100
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
HAVE
SUCH
HORRIBLE
EFFECTS,
THAT
EVERY
EFFORT
MUST
BE
MADE
TO
STOP
THEM
100
NUCLEAR
WAR
IS
NEVER
ANYTHING
LESS
THAN
GENOCIDE
101
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS
DO
NOT
RECOGNIZE
INTERNATIONAL
BORDERS.
101
THERE
WILL
BE
A
SYSTEMATIC
FAILURE
OF
TECHNOLOGY
101
DEEP
CUTS
ARE
NECESSARY
TO
ESCAPE
THE
THREAT
OF
NUCLEAR
WINTER.102
I
RAN

103
WAR
IN
IRAN
WILL
GO
GLOBAL
–
PREVENTING
ESCALATION
IS
IMPOSSIBLE. 103
IRAN
IS
THE
KEY
TEST
FOR
NON-PROLIFERATION
-
FAILURE
MEANS
THE
ENTIRE
MIDDLE
EAST
GOES
NUCLEAR,
ENSURING
ESCALATORY
REGIONAL
WAR
104
IRAN
IS
KEY
TO
NON
PROLIFERATION
EFFORTS
IN
THE
MIDDLE
EAST.
105
C
HINA

106
CHINA
IS
A
THREAT
TO
THE
ENTIRETY
OF
ASIA.
WILL
CATALYZE
SOUTHEAST
ASIAN
PROLIFERATION.
106
CHINA
IS
QUICKLY
STRIVING
TO
BECOME
A
DOMINANT
GLOBAL
POWER
BOTH
WITH
CONVENTIONAL
AND
NUCLEAR
WEAPONS.
106
CHINESE
READINESS
IS
HIGH,
THEY
CANʼT
BE
DETERRED.
107
CHINA
COULD
DESTROY
THE
UNITED
STATES
107
NPT
FAILS

108
THE
NPT
IS
TOO
OLD
TO
HANDLE
THE
PERILS
OF
THE
MODERN
AGE,
IT
IS
OUTDATED.
108
THE
NPT
IS
FUELING
ANTI-WESTERN
SENTIMENTS
108
THE
NPT
HAS
NO
CREDIBILITY,
IT
CANʼT
STOP
PROLIFERATION
108
THE
NPT
INCREASES
PROLIFERATION
AND
UNCERTAINTY.
109
INTERNATIONAL
AGREEMENTS
ON
PROLIFERATION
DONʼT
SOLVE
109
NPT
INCREASES
ACCESS
TO
NUCLEAR
WEAPON
TECHNOLOGY
MEAN
AN
INCREASE
IN
PROLIF
110
THE
NPT
IS
A
LOST
CAUSE
110
THE
NPT
WORSENS
PROLIFERATION
ABROAD
111
M
ISSILE DEFENSE FAILS

112
BECAUSE
OF
EXTENSIVE
DELAYS,
THE
BMD
IS
UNTESTED
AND
NOT
RELIABLE
112
BECAUSE
IT
IS
UNTESTED,
THE
BMD
HAS
NO
DETERRENCE
VALUE
TO
POTENTIAL
ENEMIES
112
BALLISTIC
MISSILE
DEFENSE
DOES
NOT
WORK;
IT
IS
NO
PROTECTION
AGAINST
A
FIRST-STRIKE
113