Ask Baseball America By James Bailey
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Ashland, Mass. Even with little time played in the minors, I felt that Alex Cabrera should have been a contender for the Player of the Year. Carson Anthony Curcini Pittsburg, Calif. Just to recap, here's a look at the final Minor League Player of the Year Watch: PLAYER, POS., TEAM AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brian Cole, of, Bing./St. Lucie (Mets) .301 551 104 166 35 7 19 86 42 79 69 Joe Crede, 3b, Birmingham (White Sox) .306 533 84 163 35 0 21 94 56 111 3 Keith Ginter, 2b, Round Rock (Astros) .333 462 108 154 30 3 26 92 82 127 24 Jason Hart, 1b, Sac./Midland (Athletics) .324 564 102 183 45 3 31 125 70 119 4 Gary Johnson, of, Erie/Lake Els. (Angels) .313 524 100 164 30 6 23 118 76 122 17 Kevin Mench, of, Charlotte (Rangers) .334 491 118 164 39 9 27 121 78 72 19 Jose Ortiz, 2b, Sacramento (Athletics) .351 518 107 182 34 5 24 108 47 64 22 Carlos Pena, 1b, Tulsa (Rangers) .299 529 117 158 36 2 28 105 101 108 12 Albert Pujols, 3b, Potomac/Peo. (Cardinals) .317 476 73 151 40 7 19 94 45 45 3 Juan Silvestre, of, Lancaster (Mariners) .304 506 104 154 15 3 30 137 60 126 9 Brad Wilkerson, of, Ottawa/Harris. (Expos) .295 441 93 130 47 3 18 79 87 98 13 PITCHER, TEAM W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H BB SO -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Roy Oswalt, Round Rock/Kiss. (Astros) 15 7 2.21 27 26 2 0 175 158 33 188 Jon Rauch, Winston-Salem/Birm. (White Sox) 16 4 2.66 26 26 3 0 166 138 49 187 Tim Redding, Round Rock/Kiss. (Astros) 14 5 2.79 29 29 0 0 181 139 79 142 Bud Smith, Arkansas/Memphis (Cardinals) 17 2 2.26 27 26 3 0 163 133 42 136 Greg Wooten, New Haven (Mariners) 17 3 2.31 26 26 6 0 179 166 15 115
When we give our awards, we do it like everything else with an eye on the future. The tie goes to the prospect in many senses. And this year the choice really came down to Rauch, Smith and Astros righthander Roy Oswalt. With all respect to what Wooten did—and he had a tremendous season as we discussed in this space a couple of weeks ago—at 26 he's substantially older than those three and that was taken into consideration. I realize he's had an injury in his past that probably pushed his timetable back a couple of years, but even factoring that in, the other three come out ahead as prospects. The Mariners are definitely pleased with what Wooten did this year, but read what you want into their decision not to promote him to Triple-A at any point during the season. Cabrera didn't factor in too strongly, though what he did for two months at El Paso was truly incredible. All of his 35 homers at El Paso came in May and June. Though it's obviously not his fault that he had been assigned to Double-A, it's safe to say he didn't belong there. It's hard to really read a guy's statistics when you know he's playing below his level. He's also 28 years old and it's hard to view him in the same light as the other players who are 7-8 years his junior. The bottom line was that of the guys that were under strongest consideration at the end, it was Rauch and Oswalt, with Smith slightly behind. That's the order they stack up in, prospect-wise. We talked to an assortment of player-development people and the consensus was that Rauch was the highest-ceiling prospect of the group. And that gave him the edge. Still, it was too close to call until his final start of the season, when he struck out 14 in a complete-game shutout. That was his second two-hitter at Double-A and pushed him through the tape just ahead of the other guys. The decision was literally tabled for 24 hours earlier that day because it was too close to call. Oswalt and Rauch were in a dead heat and both pitched that night. Rauch pitched better and wound up winning. This was really a strange season for Player of the Year, because none of the preseason favorites were there at the end. That opened the floor to a lot of players who may have been overlooked early in the year and gave everyone a fairly blank slate to write their argument on. Several of them turned in strong arguments, and in a very close race we felt that Rauch made the strongest case. But we certainly can understand that some of you might have made a different call. September 14, 2000 For everyone out there who has questions on prospects, we should have plenty of answers for you real soon. Not in Ask BA, but in the league Top 10 Prospect lists, which we'll begin posting on the site at the end of the month. We'll kick things off with the Rookie-level Arizona and Gulf Coast leagues, then work our way through Triple-A a couple at a time. The best news for folks who love those lists is that this year they'll be twice as long as before. That's right, you'll get 20 names per league. Check back at the end of September for the big prospect smorgasbord. As for today, we've got five questions on young players, at least one of which should appear on a list. (You figure out which one.) What happened now to Royals prospect Kyle Snyder? I heard he was going to pitch for Class A Wilmington in the playoffs, but I never saw him. George Van Buren Woodbridge, Va. Snyder is hot on Paul Wilson's trail as the unluckiest man on the mound. While Wilson seems to have shaken his bad fortune, Snyder has a long road ahead of him. After missing virtually the entire 2000 season, he's already done for 2001 as well. Snyder first began experiencing problems in spring training, with numbness in the fingers of his right hand. It took a while for the problem to be diagnosed properly, and eventually he had surgery to relieve a nerve irritation in his elbow. Once healthy, he returned to action in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, where he looked terrific in a two-inning stint in late August. Three days later he took the mound for Wilmington--and his comeback came to a quick end. Five pitches into that start he blew out his elbow. Snyder had Tommy John surgery earlier this month and he'll be rehabbing for the next 12 months or so. It's possible he could return to pitching by the end of next season, but unlikely. Snyder was the No. 3 prospect in the Royals organization entering this season. Last year, in his debut after being selected in the first round out of North Carolina, he was named the top prospect in the short-season Northwest League. Unfortunately, he's got a long road to get back to that point now. I saw that the Indians claimed Eric DuBose off waivers from the Athletics. I remember him being a first-round pick in 1997. He had a solid season in '98 but he took a major step backward last year. This year the A's moved him to the bullpen, but I think he had some arm trouble. Is he currently injured and do you think he can fulfill some of the promise he showed two years ago? T.J. Obringer Lawrence, Kan. DuBose finished the season healthy, throwing 28 1/3 innings for Double-A Midland. A starter for the most part in the first three years of his career, DuBose pitched solely as a reliever this season. I wouldn't completely dismiss DuBose at this point, but if the A's were willing to let him go, they must not have been seeing what they wanted to out of him these days. They looked at him as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter until he was hurt in 1999. Perhaps they thought the bullpen would be easier on his arm, but either way, there must have been a significant change in his stuff for them to give up on him. I saw that the ChiSox brought up Joe Borchard all the way to Double-A Birmingham for the playoffs, where he hit respectably in the four hole behind Joe Crede. Where will Borchard play next year? Will the Chisox bring him to the majors as an extra outfielder in the next few years, or only as a starter (one would think in place of Singleton)? They sure paid him big bucks! Bob LeLacheur Reading, Mass. The fact that the White Sox have so much invested in Borchard really argues more in favor of a slower advancement than a hasty one. I don't think it makes any sense to move a guy quickly to justify a large contract. And most teams never would bring a prospect like Borchard to the big leagues as an extra. He shouldn't come up, and most likely won't come up, until he's ready to play every day. I'd guess he'll return to Birmingham for the start of the 2001 season. He'll get a little more experience this fall out in the Arizona Fall League, and might even be up to the challenge of Triple-A next spring. But there's not that much sense to jump him that far, when he's only got less than half a season under his belt. Please give me your opinion of a local kid on the Rockies' Class A Asheville team, lefthander Colin Young. He put up great numbers this year in a setup role, but I would have thought he would have progressed through the system during the year, given his age. Don Jay Andover, Mass. Young had an outstanding season for Asheville, there's no doubt about that. In 36 appearances, he went 3-1 with a 1.41 ERA. He struck out 91 and walked 22 in 64 innings, while allowing just 37 hits. That's pretty darn impressive, and it seems like he should have been ready for a move to high Class A Salem somewhere along the line. Young, 22, made 19 appearances of two innings or more, including seven three-inning stints. He consistently performed well for Asheville, allowing two runs or more just twice all season. From May through July, he allowed just two runs--in three months. That's just mind boggling. A ninth-round pick out of Fordham last year, Young was a two-way star in college, ranking fourth in the Atlantic-10 in ERA in 1999 (6-4, 3.44) and eighth in hitting (.374-6-35 in 179 at-bats). That combination could come in handy in Coors Field. Would you give me your thoughts on Chad Ricketts in the Dodgers organization. He played this year for Albuquerque of the PCL. I've been a big fan of his since he started with the Cubs. Stat-wise I think he had a good year but the Dodgers didn't call him up either during the year or after the Dukes lost out in the playoffs. With all the pitching problems the Dodgers had, I would have thought they would have at least given him a shot. Dale Walters Indianapolis Ricketts, who moved from the Cubs to the Dodgers in the Eric Young trade last December, finished with a 6-2, 3.46 record for Albuquerque, with 75 strikeouts in 68 innings. He throws a low-90s sinking fastball and a solid breaking ball. The Dodgers seemed excited about him at the time of the trade. Ricketts had a solid season, but it wasn't so overwhelming that you can't figure why the Dodgers wouldn't give him a shot in September. You can only fit so many guys on a 40-man roster before someone has to come off. There are a lot of other players out there in the same boat. Too bad for him that Canada didn't qualify for the Olympics. Ricketts, who lives in Ontario, was the closer on Team Canada in the Pan Am Games last year, and would have been a likely choice to play for them again. September 12, 2000 I knew it would happen, that I'd miss a more-wins-than-walks guy in recent years. But I didn't figure it would be from last season. But yes indeed, as Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus fame pointed out to me, Marlins prospect Scott Comer won nine games and walked five batters last season for Class A Brevard County. Thanks to Rany for picking me up on that one. If you haven't ever seen Baseball Prospectus, you might want to check out their site at www.baseballprospectus.com. You'll certainly find something interesting there to chew on for a while. Now what have we got in store for today? Let's start off with a draft/signing question. Can you end the suspense in the East Bay and tell us if Xavier Nady is coming back to Cal? Has he attended classes yet? Or is he still trying to get the deal he wants with the Padres? I would really find it hard to believe that he would return for his senior year, but the suspense is killing me! Go Bears! Michael Pendleton Oakland, CA It looks at this point like Nady will be returning to Cal, but it's not official yet because he's yet to attend classes. The Padres offered him a $2.5 million major league deal, but the money was spread over five years. That doesn't seem like such a great deal to me. If he can reach the big leagues quickly he could make substantially more than that over a five-year period. That's what's baffling to me about David Espinosa signing an eight-year deal with the Reds. By 2008, he could be making a lot more money if he weren't locked in to such a contract. Not that it's all about the money, but if a player holds out all summer, you have to think he's looking for the best deal he can get, and that doesn't seem like it. It doesn't sound like X will be satisfied with the deal the Padres are offering unless there are some substantial changes to it soon. What was up with the Hector Carrasco trade? Are the Red Sox so desperate for bullpen help that they trade promising young outfielder Lew Ford to the Twins for Carrasco? I can't remember how old Lew is, but he put up some great numbers in Augusta this year so I thought that he would be a top 15 prospect with the Red Sox if he wasn't too old for A ball. I see this trade as the Red Sox becoming desperate and having to part with a good prospect in Lew Ford. I think the Twins make off fantastic with this trade. What do you think? Craig Burrows I like Lew Ford, but he's 24 years old and spent the entire season in low Class A, so he doesn't exactly fall into the category of untouchable prospect. Then again, it's not his fault that the Red Sox wouldn't move him up. Ford, a 12th-round pick out of Dallas Baptist last year, hit .315 with 35 doubles, 11 triples, nine homers and 74 RBIs at Augusta this season. He has great speed and stole 52 bases and led the South Atlantic League with 122 runs scored. It would be nice to see the Twins skip him up to Double-A to start the 2001 season and give him a chance against some older competition. They've shown in recent years that they're willing to move players who perform, so this could be a good trade for Ford. This deal could prove to be a nifty pickup for the Twins down the road, but it's not really such a lopsided deal. If the Red Sox are to have any hope of winning the wild card they had to do something after losing a few pitchers to injury in recent days. The Bryce Florie injury came on the heels of Rich Garces and Hipolito Pichardo going down and the Sox have a tough schedule to finish out the season. They had to do something and Carrasco provides some depth to their pitching staff, even though he's not eligible for postseason play if the Red Sox should make it that far. I was wondering why I have not heard much about Daytona righthander Juan Cruz? From the little I have read he seems to be a rising prospect with great strikeout potential. What are your opinions of him and what do you predict for his future? Jacob Esquivel San Antonio, Texas Cruz is definitely an emerging prospect. You should expect to find his name somewhere high on the Midwest League Top 10 Prospects list when we release it later this month. In 96 innings for Class A Lansing, Cruz struck out 106 while walking 60 and allowing just 75 hits. He went 5-5 with a 3.28 ERA in that time. Not bad for a 19-year-old kid. Then he moved up to Daytona in the high Class A Florida State League and went 3-0, 3.25 in eight appearances. For Daytona he struck out 54 and walked 18 in 44 innings, while allowing just 30 hits. Cruz, who is in his third pro season, throws in the mid-90s with a good slider and changeup. Who is Julio DePaula and why do you like him as a (shudder) Colorado Rockies pitching prospect? Thanks, Tom McCullough York, PA
John Wooten In 1994, Bret Saberhagen won 14 games for the Mets while walking just 13 batters and striking out 143 in 177 innings. Saberhagen nearly matched the feat last year with the Red Sox, winning 10 and walking 11. According to the Red Sox' 2000 media guide, Saberhagen was the third major leaguer to record more wins than walks in 1994. Hall-of-Famer Christy Mathewson did it twice, winning 25 and walking 21 in 1913 and winning 24 and walking 23 in 1914. Cincinnati pitcher Slim Sallee won 21 and walked 20 for the Reds in 1919. I've combed back through a few recent seasons in search of others, and found a couple of near misses. Vladimir Nunez won 10 and walked 10 in 14 games in 1996 for Rookie-level Lethbridge in the Pioneer League. And in 1992, Fernando DaSilva won 10 and walked 10 in 12 games for the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League Expos. Batavia closer Brett Black won three games and walked two in 1997. That doesn't really count, but he should get honorable mention for striking out 66 in 41 innings and posting a 33-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I'm sure it must have happened a handful of times in the minor leagues over the past 100 years, but a season like that is pretty darn rare. Wooten's campaign was easily the best of his career, blowing away his 1996 season, when he was named organizational pitcher of the year by the Mariners after going 15-5, 3.19 at two stops. That was his first pro season, and it propelled him to No. 6 on the Mariners Top 10 the next offseason. A third-round pick out of Portland State in 1995, he climbed as high as No. 6 on the Mariners Top 10 list (1997) before slipping temporarily out of the picture due to elbow problems. An 11-10, 4.47 season at Double-A Memphis in '97 foretold his elbow condition and by the time he finished the Arizona Fall League season with an 0-3, 8.50 record it was obvious something was wrong. He had Tommy John surgery in August 1998 and returned to action last June at Class A Lancaster. The 6-foot-7 Wooten, who throws a sinking fastball, changeup, forkball and slider, has obviously put his injury troubles behind him. This season Wooten, 26, looked once more like one of the top pitchers in the Mariners system. He finished the season at Double-A New Haven with a 17-3 record and 2.31 ERA in 26 starts. He struck out 115 and allowed just 166 hits in 179 1/3 innings. The Mariners are suddenly awash in pitching prospects, and it might be tough for Wooten to break into the rotation, considering that Brett Tomko and Ryan Anderson are already in line ahead of him. I was wondering if you could give me any information on Yuji Nerei in the Montreal Expos system. I know due to his age he really isn't considered a prospect, but he has progressed from A-ball to Triple-A this year. Do the Expos have plans for him in the big leagues? Also, is he a pioneer as a Japanese position player in American baseball? I can't recall any other Japanese position players to play Triple-A or major league ball. Is that the case or am I overlooking somebody? Ryan Brecker Rochester, N.Y. Nerei is an interesting story. He's 26, but had never played professional baseball until this year. Some sources have his age as 22, but those have to be wrong according to a story we ran on him earlier this summer. He came to the United States in the early '90s after finishing high school in Tokyo and stayed for three years. During that time he tried out with the Blue Jays, but they didn't sign him. He returned to Japan and graduated from Hosei University in Tokyo last year. The Expos signed him in January and he began his pro career this season, starting with a .294-3-8 showing in 34 at-bats at Class A Cape Fear. He moved up to Double-A Harrisburg, where he hit .250 with one RBI in 24 at-bats, then finally to Triple-A Ottawa, where he finished the year hitting .247-2-16 in 162 at-bats. Nerei is 5-foot-10, 200 pounds and supposedly has a little power. He's not really a prospect, but he's living out a dream and who knows when a hot streak might net a guy a cup of coffee. As for him being a pioneer, there have been other Japanese position players in the States before. In fact, the Red Sox have one right now. Kenichiro Kawabata, 21, signed with Boston in January 1998 and has played three seasons in the Sox organization. He split this season between high Class A Sarasota (.223-2-6 in 94 at-bats) and low Class A Augusta (.125-0-2 in 25 at-bats). Kawabata doesn't seem likely to become the first Japanese position player to break into the big leagues. My money is still on Ichiro for that one. If Orix tries to post (auction) him this winter, he could be in the big leagues as soon as next year. Otherwise he'll probably come when he reaches free agency after the 2002 season. I noticed that Matt Roney, the Rockies' 1998 first-round draft choice, was 6-1 in his last 10 starts with a 1.02 ERA at Portland. I also saw where he broke the Portland Rockies' club record for strikeouts with 85. He's coming off surgery last year. What can you tell me about what the Rockies think about his future in the organization? Matt Peters Edmond, Okla. I have to think the Rockies are pretty excited about Roney's future in the organization after he came back like he did. Roney went 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA overall for Portland this season, striking out 85 and walking 44 in 80 1/3 innings while allowing 75 hits. Roney, the 28th overall selection in the 1998 draft, missed the entire '99 season due to a torn labrum in his right shoulder. But he's back as good as new and you can throw his name onto the list of Rockies pitching prospects. It's a decent list now, though it would look a lot better if Colorado were to sign righthanders Matt Harrington and Jason Young from this year's draft. Add those two to Chin-hui Tsao, Jason Jennings, Roney, Randey Dorame, Chuck Crowder, Julio DePaula and Ryan Cameron, and you'd have to think the Rockies might finally start producing some pitchers. September 5, 2000 Not sure how things are around the rest of the country, but around here it seems like minor league season ended at just the right time, if not a few days late. The weather has suddenly turned to football weather, with wind, rain and significantly cooler temperatures. It actually spurred me to watch some football this weekend. Well, at least I tried. I really did. But I just didn't care about any of the games and the announcers said such stupid stuff over and over that I had to keep turning off the television. I even spent several hours reading a book (a what?). 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