Scenario # 2: increased modern MMX (pills, condoms, spermicides) and increased public sector source mix (pills, spermicides)
As part of the reconciliation process, we examined some of the NRHO data. It appears that they have been issuing approximately 25,000 pill cycles per year to the Rayons (to be distributed further). This number is consistent with the forecast in Scenario #1.
The NRHO data for IUDs is not consistent with this forecast. This forecast estimates approximately 25,000 IUDs required each year. UNFPA’s CCM forecast estimates a requirement of 14,000 IUDs for 2007. However, the NRHO data indicates that they have issued approximately 2,200 IUDs per year. This could represent a rationing by NRHO as UNFPA only donated a total of 120,000 IUDs since 1998. However, anectodally, we saw an overstock of IUDs in at least 2 sites with the stock expected to expire this month.
For condoms, this forecast estimates approximately 180,000 units (scenario #1) and 220,000 units (scenario #2). According to NRHO data, they have issued approximately 250,000 condoms per year. The CCM forecast is 2.16 million condoms for 2007 and 2.88million for 2008. Given the significant reliance on the private sector for condoms, this number seems extremely high.
Spermicides: NRHO does not capture this info. --- should be a recommendation. CCM: 120,000 for 2007 and 120,000 for 2008.
Based on this analysis and the input from key stakeholders, we recommend that Scenario #2 be adopted and we will base estimated costs on this scenario.
Unit costs associated with this forecast are based on USAID Contraceptive Price List for 2007. The following unit costs, which represent Free on Board (FOB), were applied:
If USAID opts for procuring contraceptives based on the estimated forecast, Pipeline software must be used to complete the calculations and a CPT must be prepared and submitted and approved by USAID’s Contraceptive Security and Logistics Management Division (CSL) before orders can be placed. In addition, the Mission must ensure that the proposed products are properly registered by the appropriate regulatory authorities for use in-country. Included in Appendix X is a draft Pipeline report, CPT and memo for USAID CSL. However, if USAID elects to procure these commodities, these documents will have to be modified to reflect specific needs (air vs. sea shipment, timing and consolidation of shipments, etc)