Forecasting Landscape Change: Toward a System of Prediction and Monitoring Issues/Problems
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USGS Integrated Science Paper 3/26/2004 Forecasting Landscape Change: Toward a System of Prediction and Monitoring Issues/Problems Landscapes and their associated ecosystems are shaped by complex and interrelated biological, geological, and hydrological responses to both natural and cultural influences. The response and resiliency of landscapes is affected by factors that vary over space and time. Slow changes in local habitat and population eventually exceed thresholds that may bring on rapid changes in regional aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Increasing and competing pressures for land-use, demands for water use, rapid spreading of invasive species and wildfires are causing dramatic and perhaps irreversible changes to our public lands. These changes can be either muted or magnified by natural climate variability, or anthropogenically-driven climate change. Understanding the sensitivity of landscapes to change, and forecasting the rates, types, and outcomes of such change, pose important integrative scientific problems of direct societal relevance. Improvements in modeling and forecasting landscape change are needed to inform better decisions in resource and land management. Stakeholders: The seven DOI Bureaus are the stakeholders and collaborators most supportive of a Forecasting Landscape Change research effort. USGS science is also critical to EPA, Corps of Engineers, Dept of Agriculture (including USFS and NRCS), Department of Energy, several DOD branches, and other principal land management or regulatory agencies. Finally, our science is important to the management and regulatory agencies for the States, local communities, NGOs, private landholders and regional watershed management entities; and finally the academic community. Opportunities for Integration Predicting landscape change requires new integrated science aimed at understanding complex interactions of natural systems. This integrative scientific niche, including complex systems modeling, should be a focus of USGS programs. Notable USGS capabilities with integrative potential are natural hazards, land-use change, habitat integrity, biodiversity and non-indigenous invasive species, fire fuels, sedimentation and stream-flow histories, and investigations into global climate change. Additionally, cross-Bureau capabilities span the scientific fields of environmental isotope chemistry, remote sensing, biogeochemical/nutrient cycling, vegetation and geologic mapping, ground-water and surface water modeling, sediment transport modeling, animal and vegetation population modeling, and other biological, hydrological, geological and social science endeavors. Scientific support includes analytical labs, database management, GIS science, remote-sensing data analysis, visualization techniques, and science policy analysis. Approach Landscape forecasting can be used to solve many land and resource management issues. Whereas some management issues can be resolved at local or regional scales, others will require information across a range of scales. As scales change, the data required to develop landscape forecast models will change, as will the type of answers available from these models. The following examples illustrate this point: Small watershed scale Example problem: The road access to a major feature in a national park goes through a riparian area, crossing a stream at multiple points . Some user groups want the road closed to protect habitat, others want it improved. The park manager needs to understand the implications of each of these actions. Data needs: Site level data (e.g., vegetative cover; stream chemistry, temperature, and biota; hydrologic regimes, (times and amounts of water flow) and surficial geology) and how these are altered by vehicle traffic and road type (e.g., wildlife response, flooding regimes; water chemistry), records of past changes in the watershed Model outputs: How vehicles and roads affect selected indicators (e.g., effect of timing and number of vehicles on wildlife; effect of road type on land surface stability and sediment production) Landscape scale Example problem: The state has transplanted elk onto USFS lands. The elk move onto BLM lands and appear to compete for forage with livestock, trample soils, and drive deer down into the adjacent national park lands. Data needs: Landscape level data (e.g., vegetation distribution in the watershed relative to geology; movement and forage utilization patterns of elk, deer, and livestock; stream sediment load throughout the watershed and response of aquatic invertebrates), maps of biological soil crusts and other stabilizing features, climate model, records of past changes such as quantitatively compared remotely sensed images Model outputs: How the presence and numbers of elk affect selected indicators (e.g., soil erosion, vegetation, livestock performance); and how changes in browse might affect their distribution in the future due to climate variations Regional scale Example problem. Sage grouse, which depend on certain native grasses, are declining throughout the western U.S. Data needs: Regional level data for species and habitat management (e.g., distribution of sagebrush types and native grasses and their condition throughout the West relative to geomorphic surfaces and soil types, definition of high quality habitat for sage grouse and mapping of these qualities, information on invasive species that compete with grass, sources of surface water, land ownership and use, road network) Model output: How much high quality sage grouse habitat is left? Where is it located? What threatens it in the short and long-terms? How will it change with time under future climate scenarios and land-use scenarios? Alternative regional scaleExample problem: Urban, suburban, and exurban expansion is increasing into fire-adapted forests and riparian valley bottoms throughout the western US. Development initiates a host of natural resource consequences, from increased sediment and runoff into streams from road and homesite development, to reduction of native species from predation by house pets, habitat alteration and fragmentation, opportunities for non-native species encroachment, and increased local emissions of air pollutants. Data needs: Maps of fire fuels, fire frequency and vegetation and land cover along the urban-wildlife interface are needed. Socio-economic data on changing demographics including cultural and economic drivers are needed Model output: Outputs include predictions of urban/suburban expansion, predictions of plant and animal changes, and the projected rate and intensity of fire based on a suite of climate/weather and land use scenarios. Urban growth contagion-type models that show where development is most likely to occur (useful for local and regional planners), hydrologic runoff models that show potential impacts to streams from development (also useful a priori for planners and developers), ecological models of species and population dynamics to show potential change with land use change, and decision-support models that can be used with decision-makers to optimize various development plans.
Data needs: Continental and global land cover maps, remotely-sensed species-specific vegetation cover (ideally as a time series), definition of animal species habitat needs, maps of plant and animal species distributions, climate, water and air quality data (including long-term records), forest and rangeland management history, road network, land ownership and use, assessments (or indicators) of current environmental condition in order to measure future change. Model outputs: Predictions of broad-scale changes associated with climate and human impacts that can be used to drive regional and watershed understandings of the changes.
Linking managers, planners and decision makers with scientists in settings that allow for two-way education, problem setting and problem solving. Linking models of hydrology, biology, geology and socio-economy to expand the scope of our understanding of complex factors influencing changes in the landscape, and to cost share in data acquisition, analysis and reporting. Development of indicators of change. The drivers of landscape change and their effects must be assigned probabilities, and effective monitoring and modeling tools put in place. Not all impacts are equally likely to occur and their effects may vary. Indicators allow scientists to focus on specific criteria and develop effective tools for tracking these indicators. There is a need for comprehensive forecasting, that involves developing and implementing appropriate methods for sampling, analyzing and reporting on the full suite of science issues: human and biologic health, water quantity and quality, soil, and natural and human-induced hazards. Annual Program Direction Recent guidance from OMB suggests high-level support for USGS science in the support of DOI Bureaus, such as NPS, FWS, BOR, and BLM. Science that can contribute to resolution of conflicts between multiple or competing interests Select Geographic Opportunities at all scales: Small watershed Ecosystem degradation related to mountaintop mining Habitat fragmentation studies - Highlands Stewardship, New Jersey Pine Barrens, and Chesapeake Bay Impacts of Urban growth on critical habitats and cultural resources- the I-95 National Park and Battlefields' corridor Landscape Urban Earth: Southern California or Pacific Northwest Urban Dynamics: Front Range of the Rockies Mojave and Sonoran Desert – Vulnerable Desert Ecosystems The Arctic Coastal Plain and Foothills Ecoregions Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana (coalbed methane) Evolution of and impacts on estuarine habitats, Florida and Biscayne Bays, the mid-Atlantic and the Gulf of Maine Region Central and Southern Rockies- Ongoing drought, resetting of woodlands and forests by wildfires and insect outbreaks, and associated ecological and hydrological changes Great Basin and Colorado Plateau US/Mexico Borderlands – competing water issues; fragile habitats; health; Decreasing water quantity and quality and environmental impacts related to sediment flux, sea-level rise and population growth along the Atlantic Seaboard Great Lakes Coastal Ecosystems Continent The Arctic Ecoregion Tropical Rainforest Ecosystem – Amazon Antarctic Ecosystem Habitat fragmentation – Human and animal migration Global
Desertification Protected area planning Soil and water conservation Human Health Global Change Conclusions and Recommendations Forecasting Landscape Change is an evolving priority focus of US Geological Survey. To achieve a successful program, there are significant challenges including how to prioritize changes that will have a significant impact, determine our ability to monitor these changes, develop an effective sampling frame and strategy with all of the necessary statistically-sound sampling and reporting mechanisms. More importantly, how might we unite our activities to actually achieve meaningful forecasting? What might be the one achievable action that we could undertake as a group that would have a tangible impact? Based on our assessment, Forecasting Landscape Change requires some infusion of resources and programmatic support to enable this inter-disciplinary team to develop an operational program to undertake the mission that we have outlined. Forecasting Landscape Change should be an important priority of the US Geological Survey. There are significant scientific as well as social challenges to developing effective forecasting capability, but there are also significant opportunities to provide input to very real complex environmental issues. Challenges include determining how to prioritize changes that will have a significant impact, and how to best monitor and interpret these changes. More importantly, how might we unite our activities to actually achieve meaningful forecasting? Opportunities abound for applying integrated scientific understanding to local to global scale problems ranging from species interactions to disruption of major biogeochemical cycles. Forecasting Landscape Change will require an infusion of resources and programmatic support to enable this inter-disciplinary team to develop an operational program to undertake the mission that we have outlined. Directory: geog spt -> files files -> Introduction Section I – Integrated Science Directions for fy 2005 files -> Eastern Region Science Plan Introduction Download 23.08 Kb. Share with your friends:
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