Future Global Ethical Issues (Excerpt from the State of the Future report)


Ethical Principles and their Spread



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6. Ethical Principles and their Spread

In the second round, respondents were also asked to judge the likely spread over time of principles which might be used in decision making and to resolve ethical issues.


The resolution principles seen as having the greatest spread were:
in 2005

Principle Number

Principle

Spread

1

Life is a divine unalterable gift.

4.138

12

Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other living and non-living things.

4.003

6

Human survival as a species is the highest priority.

3.899

22

The family in all its forms is the foundation of social values.

3.828

8

People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.

3.709

29

Precedents and tradition are important.

3.635

25

Access to education is a fundamental human right.

3.541

19

Economic progress is the most reliable path to human happiness.

3.537

16

Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.

3.451

10

Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.

3.411



in 2025:


Principle Number

Principle

Spread

25

Access to education is a fundamental human right.

4.017

6

Human survival as a species is the highest priority.

3.976

8

People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.

3.895

12

Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other living and non-living things.

3.773

1

Life is a divine unalterable gift.

3.744

16

Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.

3.737

24

The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy society.

3.728

10

Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.

3.718

11

Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request rights should be given these rights and be treated with the same respect as humans.

3.718

14

Make decisions that minimize (or preferably do no) harm.

3.694



in 2050


Principle Number

Principle

Spread

25

Access to education is a fundamental human right.

4.344

24

The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy society.

4.147

8

People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.

4.130

23

Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be considered in any policy.

4.130

6

Human survival as a species is the highest priority.

4.027

10

Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.

3.997

14

Make decisions that minimize (or preferably do no) harm.

3.997

16

Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.

3.916

28

Human beings have an obligation to mitigate suffering.

3.880

26

Treat other people the way you would like to be treated.

3.876

A review of these three tables shows that, remarkably, five of top principles in 2005 were present in all three time periods:




6

Human survival as a species is the highest priority.

8

People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.

10

Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.

16

Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.

25

Access to education is a fundamental human right.

The following graph compares the judgments about levels of acceptance in 2005 with those anticipated for 2050. All entries above the diagonal line represent spreading values.




To summarize, the principles that were seen to spread between 2005 and 2050 are: (the numbers at the end of each line represent the difference between the average assessment for 2005 and 2050):

21 World interests should prevail

over nation-state interests. 1.318
23 Protection of the environment and

biodiversity should be considered in

any policy. 1.294
3 Harmony with nature is more important

than economic progress. 1.155


13 Human space migration is part of human

evolution. 1.127


18 Care for future generations should be a major

focus of today's actions. 1.032


24 The rights of women and children are

uninfringeable and fundamental for a

healthy society. 1.023
30 Make decisions that have universal applicability. 0.847
25 Access to education is a fundamental human

right. 0.803


15 Society has the obligation to intervene in

genetic evolution to avoid its pitfalls and

cruelties. 0.738
20 Consideration of equity (e.g. distribution of

benefits) is essential in decision making. 0.708


And the principles seen to contract were:
29 Precedents and tradition are important. -0.368
22 The family in all its forms is the foundation

of social values. -0.491


11 Any artificial form of life intelligent enough

to request rights should be given these rights

and be treated with the same respect as

humans. -0.513


12 Human rights should always prevail over

the rights of other living and non-living things. -0.514


19 Economic progress is the most reliable path

to human happiness. -0.605


01 Life is a divine unalterable gift. -0.810
In order to understand the shifts envisioned by the group, the principles where divided into a number of categories, mentioned previously and as shown below.
Philosophy

Human survival as a species is the highest priority.

People must be responsible for their actions

Make decisions which do no harm.

Treat people the way you would like to be treated.

Make decisions bringing most good to most people.

Make decisions that have universal applicability.
Science

Scientific research is a more reliable path than religious faith.

Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request rights should be given these rights

Human space migration is part of human evolution.

Society has the obligation to intervene in genetic evolution to avoid its pitfalls and cruelties.

Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.


Religion

Life is a divine unalterable gift.

Compassion is required for justice.

The spiritual dimension of human life is more important then the material one.

The family is the foundation of social values.

Human beings have an obligation to mitigate suffering


Policy Imperatives

World interests should prevail over national interests.

Collective security is more important than individual freedom.

Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be considered in any policy.

Care for future generations should be a major focus of today's actions.
Operations Research

Collective judgment is generally better than individual judgment.

Fairness underlies most successful policies.

Economic progress is the most reliable path to human happiness.

Consideration of equity (e.g. distribution of benefits) is essential in decision making.
Wisdom

Harmony with nature is more important than economic progress.

Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.

Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other

living and non-living things.

The rights of women and children are uninfringeable

Access to education is a fundamental human right.

Precedents and tradition are important.

Using these divisions, the paths of evolution of the principles seen by the respondents could be traced, as shown below.


Thus, strong growth is seen for the groupings we have titled Policy Imperatives; modest growth for Philosophy, Wisdom, and Science; and relative stasis for Operations Research and Religion






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