Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010 Pointer/Gordon/Watts/Samuels Turkey Neg

Turkey In EU Bad: War Scenario (Extension)

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Turkey In EU Bad: War Scenario (Extension)

Unity in policymaking key to stop war

The Economist 4 (Peace in our time, http://www1.economist.com/surveys/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PTJQPGV)

Many of the European Union's most ardent supporters still see the EU as a crucial bulwark against the return of war to Europe. In pressing the case for monetary union, Mr Kohl argued that adopting the euro was ultimately a question of war and peace in Europe. When efforts to write a European constitution looked like stalling, Elmar Brok, a prominent German member of the EU's constitutional convention (and confidant of Mr Kohl), gave warning that if Europe failed to agree on a constitution, it risked sliding back into the kind of national rivalries that had led to the outbreak of the first world war. Remember the bad old days? Such arguments resonate particularly strongly among an older generation of French and German politicians, but also have wider currency. Timothy Garton Ash of St Antony's College, Oxford, one of Britain's most astute observers of European affairs, says in a recent book that the Union is needed “to prevent us falling back into the bad old ways of war and European barbarism which stalked the Balkans into the very last year of the last century.” Mr Garton Ash concedes that “we can never prove that a continent-wide collection of independent, fully sovereign European democracies would not behave in the same broadly pacific way without the existence of any European Union. Maybe they would, but would you care to risk it?Believers in the pacifying effects of the drive for European unity acknowledge the contributions to peace in post-war Europe made by American troops and by the spread of prosperity and democracy. But they argue that the EU has played the central role, by forcing European leaders to co-operate intensively and continuously, by proving that membership of the Union brings prosperity and by demanding that all EU countries adhere to basic principles of democracy, human rights and the peaceful resolution of disputes.

Turkey EU Bad: Economy (1/2)

1)Turkish ascension into the EU leads to instability

The Economist 4 (Peace in our time, http://www1.economist.com/surveys/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_PTJQPGV)

At a time when relations between the West and the Islamic world are so delicate, most EU leaders seem to feel that refusing to admit a large Islamic country into the Union would be seen as a disastrous confirmation of the “clash of civilisations”. European diplomats, for their part, hope that admitting Turkey to the EU will bring confirmation that Islam is not incompatible with western values. They point out with some pride that the prospect of EU membership has already driven forward reforms in Turkey such as increased political and civil rights for the Kurdish minority and the abolition of the death penalty. Many citizens fear that rather than exporting stability, the EU will import instability. For geo-strategic thinkers sitting in foreign ministries in London, Paris and Berlin, the arguments for using the EU to spread peace and democratic stability seem compelling. But ordinary European citizens find them much less convincing. Many fear that rather than exporting stability, the EU will import instability. In western Europe, public debate about EU enlargement has tended to concentrate on fears about competition from low-cost labour and waves of immigration. So far such fears have proved containable, and the admission of the new members from central Europe has not caused too much of a fuss. But the new central European members, though poorer than the European average, are smallish (except for Poland), and all are predominantly Christian. Turkey, which on current trends will have a larger population than any current EU member by 2020, is a different proposition. Because all EU citizens are free to live and work anywhere in the EU, there could be serious resistance to Turkish membership in France, Germany and the Netherlands, where the rapid growth of Muslim populations in the past 30 years is already a highly sensitive issue. Even without such worries, the traditional arguments for European integration as a “peace project” have anyway been losing force with the passing years. The current generation of EU leaders still has some memories of the depredations of war in Europe. Gerhard Schröder, the German chancellor, never knew his father, who was killed in the second world war; Jacques Chirac, the French president, lived through the war as a child. But for most younger Europeans, the threat of war in western Europe now seems almost unimaginably remote..

Turkey EU Bad: Economy (2/2)

2. Member unity key to solve the econ crisis

Tucker 10 (James, journalist specializing in int’l econ, AFP, Global Elites Struggle to Keep EU, http://www.prisonplanet.com/global-elites-struggle-to-keep-eu-euro-intact.html) BAF

Bilderberg members pushed hard in a frantic attempt to save the euro during the recent weekend-long economic summit in Toronto, but this action was ignored by the major media, which is under control of the secret group of international financiers and political czars. “As the euro faces a challenge like none before, the question is whether it will last,” wrote Neil Irwin of the Bilderberg-controlled Washington Post way over in Frankfurt, Germany, as heads of state were gathering in Ontario, Canada’s largest city. “The debt crisis that began in Greece and menaces half a dozen other European nations has caused the euro to lose 15 percent of its value relative to the dollar since January,” he wrote. “Some economists consider it obvious that the currency union will not survive in its present form, that one or more southern European nations could end up reverting to liras, pesetas and drachmas.” What Irwin failed to write is that this is what was being said inside the Toronto G-20 summit. As we go about our busy lives, the future of the euro and the European Union itself is being addressed in Toronto and Paris, with most leaders acting in unison in an effort to save the euro—which was high on the Bilderberg agenda in early June at their secretive meeting in Spain Saving the euro appears to be critical to Bilderberg’s overall plans. Their shadowy schemes have been seriously set back in recent years, to maintain the European Union’s role as a single superstate and to create a parallel “American Union” that also would use a continental currency, the “amero.” In a glass skyscraper in Paris, a Bilderberg-connected banker named Jean-Claude Trichet and his 16,000 employees are struggling to save the euro and promote the “amero.” The European Central Bank is under heavy pressure to save the euro. So Trichet’s bank is buying billions of euros worth of government bonds in an effort to stabilize markets. But this has generated new tensions as Germany objects, saying it is a violation of the central bank’s rules. Unlike Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank must strictly monitor inflation and is limited in the amount of euros it can loan into circulation. As the economy fizzled further, Trichet decided that the goal of European unity was more important than the law and presented a compromise: They would buy bonds on the open market, not directly from governments, ducking the prohibition on funding government debt. At the same time, they would take other steps to avoid increasing the money supply to ease inflationary pressures. In Toronto, Bilderberg-linked participants strongly supported Trichet’s money plan. “It’s the only way to save the euro, and without the euro, the European Union falls apart and the American Union never comes into existence” said one, echoing the agony expressed at Bilderberg’s meeting in Spain. “We can’t let that happen, ever.” “Euro-area governments have effectively thrown away the rule book,” moaned Volker Wieland, an economist at Goethe University Frankfurt. “It’s a complete regime change. No bailouts and individual fiscal responsibility have been replaced with mutual guarantees” for government debt. Bilderberg also is reportedly supporting strong international regulations on banks, as a step toward creating a world treasury department, which gained much approval in Toronto. “The stakes are so high, I think the incentives are high to sort it out,” Wieland said.
3. Unstable EU market leads to world economic downturn\

Schneider and Irwin 10 (Howard and Neil, Stony Brook University prof of journalism, Washington Post, One false move in Europe could set off global chain reaction, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/23/AR2010052304170_pf.html)BAF

But the knife-edge psychology currently governing global markets has put the future of the U.S. economic recovery in the hands of politicians in an assortment of European capitals. If one or more fail to make the expected progress on cutting budgets, restructuring economies or boosting growth, it could drain confidence in a broad and unsettling way. Credit markets worldwide could lock up and throw the global economy back into recession. For the average American, that seemingly distant sequence of events could translate into another hit on the 401(k) plan, a lost factory shift if exports to Europe decline and another shock to the banking system that might make it harder to borrow. "If what happened in Greece were to happen in a large country, it could fundamentally mark our times," Angelos Pangratis, head of the European Union delegation to the United States, said Friday after a panel discussion on the crisis in Greece sponsored by the Greater Washington Board of Trade. That local economic development boards are sponsoring panels on government debt in Greece is perhaps proof enough that Europe's problems are the world's. That the dominoes can tumble fast was shown Thursday when a new and narrowly drawn stock-trading policy in Germany helped trigger a sell-off on Wall Street. It marks a change, Barclays Capital chief European economist Julian Callow wrote in a Friday analysis, from a situation in which the bonds of European countries were considered to carry virtually zero risk to a "brave new world" where sovereign default in one of the world's core economic areas is a tangible threat. Bank holdings of European debt are now being studied with the same focus given to holdings of U.S. mortgage-backed securities as the global financial crisis unfolded in 2008 -- and with the same suspicion that problems in one part of the world could wreck others. The most vulnerable European countries -- Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland -- may represent only about 4 percent of world economic activity, but "the debt crisis and its ripple effects are bad news for all corners of the world," said Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad.

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