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The 2010 Hurricane Season for the Atlantic Basin (North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) will start officially this Tuesday, June 1 and end on November 30, 2010.
For the 2009 Hurricane Season, nine (9) named storms developed of which three (3) developed into Hurricanes and six (6) into Tropical Storms. The seasonal average, calculated from the 1950-2000 seasons, in comparison is 11 named storms, with six (6) Hurricanes and two (2) major Hurricanes, category 3 or higher. It was a near normal season with respect to named storms and major Hurricanes. However in terms of Hurricanes, the season was well below normal. The season also produced the lowest number of named storms since 1997. The strongest storm for the season was Bill with peak winds of 135 mph. The season tied 1997, 1994, 1987, 1983, 1972, 1962, 1957 and 1946 for the second lowest number of hurricanes, for a season, for the period 1944 – 2009.
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Antigua and Barbuda experienced the most significant storm effect from Tropical Storm Erika. Erika moved across the islands on September 2nd and 3rd with storm force gusts experienced early on September 3rd. The disturbance initially forecast to pass north of the islands, eventually passed over Guadeloupe on September 2nd with wind speeds of 30 knots, gusting to 38 knots. It also produced occasionally heavy showers and thunderstorms which resulted in minor flooding in flood prone and low-lying areas. Only minor damages were reported.
According to Drs Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, of the Colorado State University, in their April 2010 release, the 2010 Hurricane Season is predicted to be more active than normal. For this season, they have predicted 15 named storms, 8 Hurricanes and 4 major Hurricanes. The above normal projection is mainly due to the weakening El Nino episode, forecast to weaken to a neutral state by June or a mild La Nina into the second half of 2010. These conditions are conducive to a more active 2010 season. The forecast by no means indicate exact locations where systems will develop, how they will move or where they will strike. Local authorities and the general public are therefore urged to prepare in advance and to take the necessary precautions in case watches and warnings are issued.
This year, Hurricane watches and warnings will be timed to provide 48 and 36 hours notice, respectively, before the onset of tropical storm force winds. Changes in lead time are as follows:
(i) Watches will be issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are expected within the specified area of the watch within 48 hours;
(ii) Warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours;
As usual, Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services will monitor the development of all systems and other inclement weather situations which threaten the Leeward and British Virgin Islands and if necessary, issue watches or warnings. We will also coordinate with disaster management authorities in Antigua and Barbuda, the other Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands to sensitize the general public to the threats and hazards likely with the passage of storm systems and the need to monitor and prepare as necessary.
The names prepared for this hurricane season are: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter.
Remember, awareness and good preparedness are essential to limiting loss of life and property.
......................................................... Keithley Meade Director Meteorological Services
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