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SECTION 4: Class Schedule



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SECTION 4: Class Schedule
Please note that the schedule below may change in small respects – in terms of the sequence and possibly timing of certain classes – to accommodate guest speakers or exciting opportunities as they arise. We will do our best to give you plenty of advance notice.


Class

Date

Topic

Main Questions


Assignment


UNIT 1: ENERGY AS A DETERMINANT OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AND SECURITY

1

Friday

January 23



Shopping Day: Introduction; Overview of Course and Requirements

What is the “geopolitics of energy”? How has the idea of energy security evolved?

Two sessions will be held during the 2:40-3:55pm slot. L230




2

Monday

January 26



Energy as a Determinant of International Politics and Security

How have energy transitions transpired in the past? What is a strategic commodity? How has energy, as a strategic commodity shaped the international system in the past? To what extent has energy determined alliances, the outcomes of wars, the pace of development, and the rise and fall of empires?

Be prepared to discuss readings in class.



3

Wednesday

January 28



The Global Energy Landscape: Demand, Supply, and Price

What are the factors influencing global energy markets and the major trends on today’s energy landscape? What factors are driving the fundamentals (demand, supply, and price)? What are the projections for demand and supply – what challenges do they portend? To what extent does supply and demand depend on geopolitical factors? What is the role of governments in moving away from oil and gas toward alternative energies today and in the future?



Be prepared to discuss readings in class.



4

Monday

February 2



The Unconventional Revolution in Oil and Gas in North America

What accounts for the massive uptick in production of shale gas and tight oil in the United States? What are the uncertainties surrounding the trajectory of this revolution – environmental, geological, political? Through what mechanisms will this unconventional revolution affect geopolitics?



Be prepared to discuss readings in class.



5

Wednesday

February 4



The Potential for the Unconventional Revolution to Go Global

What was the perhaps unique set of factors – beyond technology and geology – that led to the explosive growth in production in the United States? How likely is it that other countries will enjoy the same benefits from their unconventional resources?



Take a Position Option 1: The revolution in unconventional energy in the United States will not be replicated abroad.





Wednesday February 4 5:00-6:30 PM

Class Happy Hour

Location TBC

Come join your classmates, Scott, Jaffar, and me in an informal setting!




6

Monday

February 9



Guest Speaker






UNIT 2: RESOURCE REALITIES

7

Wednesday

February 11



POLICY MEMO

The Resource Curse

What are the components of the alleged “resource curse? How does the discovery and exploitation of resources affect the development of a country’s political institutions? Is the resource course inevitable? What policy advice would you give President Ernest Bai Koroma of Sierra Leone, President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, or President Ollanta Humala of Peru – leaders of three countries who recently discovered potentially significant amounts of natural resources?





Policy Memo Option 1: What advice would you give one of the presidents of Sierra Leone, Afghanistan, or Peru about how to develop his country’s natural resources?




Monday

February 16



HOLIDAY:

PRESIDENT’S DAY







8

Wednesday

February 18



POLICY MEMO

Resource Nationalism: The Case of Latin America

What has given rise to national oil companies and what are the implications for their control over vast amounts of reserves? What roles do NOCs often play in the development of a country? How have some countries sought to reform their NOCs and introduce greater competition? How does the unconventional revolution in energy create new incentives or disincentives for resource nationalism and NOCs?





Policy Memo Option 2: What advice would you, as the energy advisor to Mexican President Pena Nieto, give your boss about successfully reforming Pemex, the Mexican national oil company?


9

Monday

February 23





Resource Endowments and the Nature of the State: what is the relationship between democracy and oil?

How does the discovery and exploitation of resources affect the development of a country’s political institutions? Will a decline in the price of oil help or hinder political reform? Have the revolutions in the Arab world told us anything about the resilience of regimes reliant on oil revenues?





Take a Position Option 2: There is no relationship between oil and democracy.

UNIT 3: ENERGY AS A MEANS OF NATIONAL POWER: Using Energy to Project Power

10

Wednesday

February 25




Consumer Leverage and the Use of Sanctions: The Case of Iran

What sort of leverage do consumers of energy have? Under what circumstances have consumer countries been able to use energy as a weapon? When are sanctions most likely to succeed? What has been the cost of sanctions on energy producing states? How are current U.S., UN, and international sanctions on Iran affecting energy interests?




Take a Position Option 3:

Uncont’l

revolution in oil and gas opens the possibility of the more vigorous use of sanctions.

11

Monday

March 2



GROUP EXERCISE

OPEC Today: How to meet the challenge of unconventional supply?

Students will be assigned a country to represent and an “OPEC group” of which to be part. On the day of class, you will break into your OPEC groups and seek to come up with a common assessment and strategy for dealing with the extra supply generated from the unconventional revolution, if one is needed at all.





Post Exercise Task: Groups should collectively submit an email to Adam before end of the day on Wednesday explaining the key elements of your approach. One page is sufficient.

12

Wednesday

March 4


Cartelization: OPEC and the GECF

To what extent does the formation of cartels produce strategic advantage to its participants? How has OPEC wielded political influence over the decades – and are the constraints on OPEC internal or external? Is OPEC still a force to be reckoned with today? Should consumer countries hope for OPEC’s collapse?





Take a Position Option 4: Consumers should be careful what they wish for: a collapse of OPEC would not bring the benefits commonly perceived.

13

Monday

March 9


Russia and Europe


MAYBE DO SOMETHING ON SOUTHERN CORRIDOR DECISION?

What is the energy relationship between Russia and Europe? Is European reliance on Russian natural gas a threat to European prosperity or security? If so, what has been or could be done to mitigate this threat and what is the role of diplomacy in realizing such outcomes? How, if at all, has the unconventional revolution affected the European-Russian relationship thus far? What might be the affect of it in the future?






Policy Memo Option 3: Write a memo to President Putin or Gazprom chief Alexey Miller explaining the possible implications of the unconventional revolution for Russia and how Russia might respond to them.



14

Wednesday

March 11



PRODUCER CASE STUDY

The Implications of Iraq’s Energy Strategy


How can Iraq translate its energy wealth into domestic prosperity and influence in the region? What is the energy strategy of Iraq, a strategic producer country, and what are the geopolitical implications of this strategy?

Policy Memo Option 4: Write to the Iraqi National Security Advisor giving him advice on how Baghdad might overcome its dispute with the Kurds over oil revenues.

Spring Break March16-20-2015


UNIT 4: ENERGY AS AN END TO FOREIGN POLICY AND SECURITY

STRATEGIES:

The Use of Power to Protect and Secure Energy

15

Monday

March 23


Guest Speaker







16

Wednesday

March 25



CASE EXERCISE

The Geopolitical Implications of Pakistan’s National Energy Strategy

Students will be assigned roles and groups representing key members of the Pakistani cabinet. They will be provided with a simple computer model, which will facilitate group discussion regarding what is the link between energy and security in Pakistan? What strategy should Pakistan adopt to address its immediate and long term energy needs? What choices does Pakistan have in seeking to address its energy challenges – and what are the various geopolitical implications of these choices?






Post Exercise Task: Groups should collectively submit an email to Scott and Jaffar before end of the day on Wednesday explaining the rationale behind their choices for Pakistan. One page is sufficient.


17

Monday

March 30


POLICY MEMO

Resource Mercantilism; China in Africa

What forms does energy mercantilism take? How has China sought to secure the energy it needs to develop? What are the implications of China’s strategy for Africa? For the United States? What new power alliances could or are emerging as a result of the trend toward energy mercantilism?





Policy Memo Option 5: Write a memo to the U.S. national security advisor on the implications of China’s quest for energy resources abroad and implications for U.S. policy. (See case prompt distributed in class.)


18

Wednesday

April 1



China’s Rise and Thirst for Energy: Is great power conflict inevitable?

What are the connections between energy and politics in China? What are the projections for growth in Chinese energy demand and how does China expect to meet these needs? What implications does this quest for energy have for Chinese foreign policy and, more specifically, how might it create friction with the United States or China’s more immediate neighbors? How might the development of China’s unconventional energy resources change this picture?






Take a Position Option 5: China’s rise and thirst for energy will eventually lead to international military conflict.

19

Monday


April 6


POLICY MEMO

The United States in the Gulf

What is the “true” cost of oil in the United States? Why does the United States maintain a military presence in the Gulf? How valid are claims that the 1991 and 2003 wars against Iraq were about oil? How does the fact that the United States will no longer need to import Middle Eastern oil affect U.S. foreign policy toward that region of the world?


Policy Memo Option 6: Write a memo to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia about whether you, his ambassador to Washington DC, believe that the United States will withdraw its forces from the Gulf in the wake of the U.S. boom in unconventional oil and gas.



UNIT 5: ALTERNATIVE, RENEWABLE, AND NEW ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICS


20

Wednesday

April 8



National Security, the Unconventional Revolution, and Climate Change

What are the implications of climate change for national security? What are the direct and indirect mechanisms through which climate change can affect energy security? To what extent are efforts to manage climate change and energy security complementary or in conflict?




Be prepared to discuss readings in class.

21

Monday


April 13



Geopolitical Consequences of a Shift to Nuclear Power

What would it take to make nuclear power more viable as an alternative to fossil fuels? What would be the geopolitical repercussions if these obstacles were surmounted? Is nuclear power a viable option in the Middle East and North Africa?






22

Wednesday

April 15



Student Presentations on the Geopolitical Implications of Alternative Energies




Be prepared to discuss readings in class.



23

Monday

April 20



CASE STUDY

Geopolitical Consequences of Wind and Solar Energy: The Case of DESERTEC


What is the potential for solar in solving some of the energy dilemmas of Europe and North Africa? What geopolitical issues come into play when one considers the development and export of solar-powered electricity? Are their similarities and differences than the issues associated with oil and gas? What obstacles need to be surmounted for DESERTEC to be realized?



Take a Position Option 6: Renewable energies such as solar and wind are subject to the same geopolitical complications as oil and gas.

24

Wednesday

April 22



Geo-Engineering and International Institutions

Guest Speaker: Professor David Keith

What happens if the world fails to meet the challenge of changing its behavior sufficiently to prevent potentially catastrophic climate change? Does science have any other options to offer? What are some of the politically complicated realities around geo-engineering? Are current international institutions well suited to managing its use?




Be prepared to discuss readings in class.

25

Monday

April 27



Student Presentations on the Geopolitical Implications of Alternative Energies



Be prepared to discuss readings in class.




UNIT 6: CONCLUSIONS AND FINAL THOUGHTS


26

Wednesday

April 29



CLASS WRAP UP





Assignment for class preparation will be given in Monday’s class.






SECTION 5: Required Texts and Reading List
Required Texts:


  • Daniel Yergin, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World, (New York: Penguin Press), 2011.







  • Andreas Goldthau (eds.), The Handbook of Global Energy Policy (John Wiley & Sons, 2013). – Harvard students can access the e-book with their Harvard ID and pin at http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:hul.ebook:WOB_9781118326275 ; Cross-registrants can access the e-book through guest computers in the HKS Library (and MIT cross-registrants should also be able to access the e-book through their MIT online catalogue). Please consult an HKS Librarian for additional guidance.


Optional Texts:


  • Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (Free Press), 2008.


Copies of the required books and all of the readings not available online will be held on reserve in the HKS Library.


UNIT 1: ENERGY AS A DETERMINANT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM




Class 1: Friday January 23

Topic: Shopping Day


Required:

  • (2 pages) “From the Editor: Energy Geopolitics in the 21st Century,” Journal of Energy Security, April 2012. (http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=350:energy-geopolitics-in-the-21st-century&catid=122:fromtheditor&Itemid=389).

  • (17 pages) Gal Luft and Anne Korin, “Energy Security: In the Eyes of the Beholder,” in Energy Security Challenges for the 21st Century (Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger Security International), 2009, Chapter 1 - pp. 1-17.



Class 2: Monday, January 26

Topic: Energy as a Determinant of the International System


Required:


  • Be sure to have read the required readings from January 23 (above).




  • (14 pages) Meghan O’Sullivan, “The Entanglement of Energy, Grand Strategy, and International Security,” in Andreas Goldthau (eds.), The Handbook of Global Energy Policy (John Wiley & Sons, 2013), Chapter 2, pp. 30-43.




  • (17 pages) Daniel Yergin, “Energy Security and Markets,” in Jan H. Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn (eds.), Energy and Security: Strategies for a World in Transition (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013), Chapter 2, pp. 69-85.



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