Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead
Appendix G Intensity Guidance Model Errors for 2005
Download 0.64 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- Table G-1.
- Table G-2.
- Table G-3.
- Table G-4.
- Table G-5.
Appendix G
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Model ID |
Forecast Period (h) | ||||||
|
|
12 |
24 |
36 |
48 |
72 |
96 |
120 |
|
OFCL |
7.8 |
11.9 |
14.4 |
16.1 |
19.3 |
17.8 |
20.1 |
|
SHF5 |
10.8 |
17.2 |
20.6 |
21.9 |
24.9 |
26.4 |
23.8 |
|
GFDI |
9.7 |
14.1 |
16.8 |
18.0 |
21.1 |
23.6 |
24.1 |
|
SHIP |
10.2 |
15.9 |
19.0 |
19.8 |
21.6 |
22.3 |
23.6 |
|
DSHP |
9.0 |
12.9 |
15.5 |
17.7 |
20.8 |
20.2 |
23.8 |
|
FSSE |
8.6 |
12.7 |
15.4 |
17.4 |
21.2 |
23.1 |
23.0 |
|
ICON |
8.8 |
12.4 |
14.7 |
16.3 |
19.5 |
20.2 |
21.9 |
|
# Cases |
430 |
401 |
356 |
312 |
231 |
161 |
112 |
Table G-2. Homogeneous Comparison of Selected Subset of East Pacific Ocean Basin Early Intensity Guidance Model Errors (kt) for 2005
|
Model ID |
Forecast Period (h) | ||||||
|
|
12 |
24 |
36 |
48 |
72 |
96 |
120 |
|
OFCL |
6.0 |
10.2 |
13.9 |
16.5 |
18.5 |
19.0 |
19.9 |
|
SHF5 |
7.0 |
11.7 |
15.4 |
18.5 |
20.1 |
20.1 |
19.0 |
|
GFDI |
7.4 |
11.5 |
14.7 |
17.0 |
20.4 |
20.0 |
17.2 |
|
SHIP |
6.6 |
10.6 |
13.9 |
16.6 |
19.4 |
20.5 |
22.1 |
|
DSHP |
6.3 |
10.1 |
13.4 |
16.0 |
19.3 |
20.5 |
22.1 |
|
ICON |
6.3 |
9.8 |
12.5 |
14.5 |
17.7 |
17.3 |
16.5 |
|
# Cases |
247 |
220 |
190 |
165 |
129 |
102 |
85 |
Table G-3. Heterogeneous Comparison of Western North Pacific Ocean Early Intensity Guidance Models (kts) against Official (JTWC) Forecast for 2005
|
Model ID |
Forecast Period (h) | ||||||
|
|
12 |
24 |
36 |
48 |
72 |
96 |
120 |
|
JTWC |
7.2 |
11.6 |
14.8 |
17.6 |
23.4 |
25.7 |
26.6 |
|
CONW |
9.4 |
16.4 |
22.1 |
25.8 |
29.7 |
30.8 |
28.2 |
|
AFWI |
11.2 |
19.0 |
24.4 |
27.3 |
30.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
AVNI |
10.6 |
18.5 |
24.8 |
29.5 |
35.9 |
39.5 |
38.3 |
|
GFNI |
9.3 |
15.1 |
20.4 |
23.5 |
24.5 |
24.3 |
23.8 |
|
JGSI |
10.6 |
18.3 |
23.8 |
27.3 |
33.2 |
47.0 |
-- |
|
JTYI |
9.2 |
15.2 |
20.0 |
23.6 |
27.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
NGPI |
11.3 |
18.6 |
24.1 |
28.4 |
33.8 |
34.4 |
32.8 |
|
TCLI |
9.6 |
16.6 |
21.6 |
24.6 |
27.3 |
44.5 |
59.0 |
|
ST5D |
7.8 |
13.1 |
17.8 |
20.7 |
25.5 |
26.3 |
24.9 |
|
STIP |
8.2 |
14.0 |
17.8 |
20.8 |
25.5 |
28.4 |
26.6 |
|
# Cases |
543 |
503 |
452 |
403 |
312 |
176 |
119 |
Table G-4. Heterogeneous Comparison of North Indian Ocean Early Intensity Guidance Models (kts) against Official (JTWC) Forecast for 2005
|
Model ID |
Forecast Period (h) | ||||||
|
|
12 |
24 |
36 |
48 |
72 |
96 |
120 |
|
JTWC |
4.8 |
8.1 |
11.4 |
13.0 |
21.4 |
11.0 |
11.3 |
|
CONW |
7.1 |
11.6 |
12.9 |
13.5 |
14.5 |
15.3 |
5.7 |
|
AFWI |
7.7 |
14.5 |
18.5 |
21.1 |
25.6 |
-- |
-- |
|
AVNI |
7.0 |
11.5 |
14.5 |
16.7 |
14.9 |
12.4 |
9.0 |
|
GFNI |
8.2 |
13.3 |
16.0 |
16.3 |
13.2 |
16.2 |
14.0 |
|
JGSI |
8.9 |
12.9 |
17.5 |
19.7 |
26.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
JTYI |
8.0 |
15.3 |
19.5 |
22.8 |
23.5 |
-- |
-- |
|
NGPI |
7.9 |
12.7 |
13.6 |
15.3 |
15.6 |
17.4 |
7.8 |
|
TCLI |
9.0 |
13.8 |
16.6 |
19.0 |
18.5 |
-- |
-- |
|
ST5D |
6.8 |
11.6 |
12.2 |
14.5 |
13.2 |
16.6 |
9.5 |
|
STIP |
9.6 |
17.8 |
25.1 |
28.2 |
28.6 |
-- |
-- |
|
# Cases |
77 |
67 |
56 |
49 |
18 |
10 |
8 |
Table G-5. Heterogeneous Comparison of Southern Hemisphere Early Intensity Guidance Models (kts) against Official (JTWC) Forecast for 2005
(Comparison at 96 and 120 h are against CONW)
|
Model ID |
Forecast Period (h) | ||||||
|
|
12 |
24 |
36 |
48 |
72 |
96 |
120 |
|
JTWC |
9.4 |
15.7 |
21.7 |
25.5 |
32.9 |
-- |
-- |
|
CONW |
10.5 |
19.0 |
25.4 |
29.5 |
34.7 |
32.2 |
35.7 |
|
AFWI |
11.1 |
20.1 |
28.0 |
32.8 |
16.8 |
-- |
-- |
|
AVNI |
11.8 |
20.7 |
27.3 |
32.7 |
44.8 |
36.4 |
40.3 |
|
GFNI |
10.0 |
17.7 |
23.5 |
26.8 |
25.3 |
27.7 |
38.6 |
|
NGPI |
12.4 |
21.6 |
28.5 |
32.4 |
39.5 |
38.2 |
41.3 |
|
TCLI |
13.7 |
19.5 |
22.2 |
23.7 |
23.0 |
-- |
-- |
|
ST5D |
10.3 |
17.5 |
22.4 |
24.6 |
29.6 |
25.9 |
24.5 |
|
# Cases |
239 |
213 |
192 |
169 |
41 |
140 |
106 |
Directory: tcr -> draft-plan
tcr -> 1Tropical Cyclone Report
tcr -> 1Tropical Cyclone Report
tcr -> 1Tropical Cyclone Report
tcr -> 1Tropical Cyclone Report
draft-plan -> 3 Current Capabilities and Limitations
tcr -> Noaa long-term Research Initiative Attacking the Hurricane Intensity and Inland Flood Forecast Problem
tcr -> Buying a Glove
tcr -> 1Tropical Cyclone Report
tcr -> Air-Sea Interactions in Tropical Cyclones Workshop Camp Springs, dc 24-25 May 2005 Preface
tcr -> 1Tropical Cyclone Report
tcr -> 1Tropical Cyclone Report
tcr -> 1Tropical Cyclone Report
tcr -> 1Tropical Cyclone Report
draft-plan -> 3 Current Capabilities and Limitations
tcr -> Noaa long-term Research Initiative Attacking the Hurricane Intensity and Inland Flood Forecast Problem
tcr -> Buying a Glove
tcr -> 1Tropical Cyclone Report
tcr -> Air-Sea Interactions in Tropical Cyclones Workshop Camp Springs, dc 24-25 May 2005 Preface
Download 0.64 Mb.
Share with your friends: