Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead


Appendix G Intensity Guidance Model Errors for 2005



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Appendix G
Intensity Guidance Model Errors for 2005


Although not computed operationally, included for reference in tables G-1 and G-2 is a simple intensity consensus model (ICON) that is an average of GFDI and DSHP. In each table, The number of cases (“# Cases” at bottom of each table) indicates the number of JTWC forecasts represented in the error computation.
Table G-1. Homogeneous Comparison of Selected Subset of Atlantic Basin Early Intensity Guidance Model Errors (kt) for 2005

Model ID

Forecast Period (h)




12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

7.8

11.9

14.4

16.1

19.3

17.8

20.1

SHF5

10.8

17.2

20.6

21.9

24.9

26.4

23.8

GFDI

9.7

14.1

16.8

18.0

21.1

23.6

24.1

SHIP

10.2

15.9

19.0

19.8

21.6

22.3

23.6

DSHP

9.0

12.9

15.5

17.7

20.8

20.2

23.8

FSSE

8.6

12.7

15.4

17.4

21.2

23.1

23.0

ICON

8.8

12.4

14.7

16.3

19.5

20.2

21.9

# Cases

430

401

356

312

231

161

112


Table G-2. Homogeneous Comparison of Selected Subset of East Pacific Ocean Basin Early Intensity Guidance Model Errors (kt) for 2005

Model ID

Forecast Period (h)




12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

6.0

10.2

13.9

16.5

18.5

19.0

19.9

SHF5

7.0

11.7

15.4

18.5

20.1

20.1

19.0

GFDI

7.4

11.5

14.7

17.0

20.4

20.0

17.2

SHIP

6.6

10.6

13.9

16.6

19.4

20.5

22.1

DSHP

6.3

10.1

13.4

16.0

19.3

20.5

22.1

ICON

6.3

9.8

12.5

14.5

17.7

17.3

16.5

# Cases

247

220

190

165

129

102

85



Table G-3. Heterogeneous Comparison of Western North Pacific Ocean Early Intensity Guidance Models (kts) against Official (JTWC) Forecast for 2005

Model ID

Forecast Period (h)




12

24

36

48

72

96

120

JTWC

7.2

11.6

14.8

17.6

23.4

25.7

26.6

CONW

9.4

16.4

22.1

25.8

29.7

30.8

28.2

AFWI

11.2

19.0

24.4

27.3

30.0

--

--

AVNI

10.6

18.5

24.8

29.5

35.9

39.5

38.3

GFNI

9.3

15.1

20.4

23.5

24.5

24.3

23.8

JGSI

10.6

18.3

23.8

27.3

33.2

47.0

--

JTYI

9.2

15.2

20.0

23.6

27.0

--

--

NGPI

11.3

18.6

24.1

28.4

33.8

34.4

32.8

TCLI

9.6

16.6

21.6

24.6

27.3

44.5

59.0

ST5D

7.8

13.1

17.8

20.7

25.5

26.3

24.9

STIP

8.2

14.0

17.8

20.8

25.5

28.4

26.6

# Cases

543

503

452

403

312

176

119



Table G-4. Heterogeneous Comparison of North Indian Ocean Early Intensity Guidance Models (kts) against Official (JTWC) Forecast for 2005

Model ID

Forecast Period (h)




12

24

36

48

72

96

120

JTWC

4.8

8.1

11.4

13.0

21.4

11.0

11.3

CONW

7.1

11.6

12.9

13.5

14.5

15.3

5.7

AFWI

7.7

14.5

18.5

21.1

25.6

--

--

AVNI

7.0

11.5

14.5

16.7

14.9

12.4

9.0

GFNI

8.2

13.3

16.0

16.3

13.2

16.2

14.0

JGSI

8.9

12.9

17.5

19.7

26.0

--

--

JTYI

8.0

15.3

19.5

22.8

23.5

--

--

NGPI

7.9

12.7

13.6

15.3

15.6

17.4

7.8

TCLI

9.0

13.8

16.6

19.0

18.5

--

--

ST5D

6.8

11.6

12.2

14.5

13.2

16.6

9.5

STIP

9.6

17.8

25.1

28.2

28.6

--

--

# Cases

77

67

56

49

18

10

8



Table G-5. Heterogeneous Comparison of Southern Hemisphere Early Intensity Guidance Models (kts) against Official (JTWC) Forecast for 2005

(Comparison at 96 and 120 h are against CONW)



Model ID

Forecast Period (h)




12

24

36

48

72

96

120

JTWC

9.4

15.7

21.7

25.5

32.9

--

--

CONW

10.5

19.0

25.4

29.5

34.7

32.2

35.7

AFWI

11.1

20.1

28.0

32.8

16.8

--

--

AVNI

11.8

20.7

27.3

32.7

44.8

36.4

40.3

GFNI

10.0

17.7

23.5

26.8

25.3

27.7

38.6

NGPI

12.4

21.6

28.5

32.4

39.5

38.2

41.3

TCLI

13.7

19.5

22.2

23.7

23.0

--

--

ST5D

10.3

17.5

22.4

24.6

29.6

25.9

24.5

# Cases

239

213

192

169

41

140

106




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