Met 614 Tropical Cyclones Spring 2013
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| MET 614 - Tropical Cyclones Spring 2013
meeting time: Tuesday and Thursday 9:00 to 10:15 place: HIG 309 and sometimes 310 to access the internet Profs.: Gary M. Barnes HIG 335, 956-2565, gbarnes@hawaii.edu Yuqing Wang, POST 409G, 956-5609, yuqing@hawaii.edu Overview: Tropical cyclones (TCs) have the dubious distinction of being one of the more dangerous and destructive natural phenomena in the world (Southern 1979). Today, the United States dedicates considerable resources to the monitoring, prediction, and research of these intense, long-lived vortices. This course will look at the meteorological, climatological, and a few societal aspects of TCs. We will be reading a great deal of papers from the refereed journals. These can be obtained via the web for the most part. Figures that I discuss in class will be handed out or made available electronically. I realize that the reading list is daunting – we’ll probably modify (read shorten) the list as we proceed. Gary’s choices are based on their long term standing in the community, or they are digestible without an inordinate amount of background. Yes, there are more recent papers, but our goal is to work on the foundation material first. Yuqing has identified his list of papers, and it is likely that the list will be reduced due to time constraints. Gary will set the stage describing TC basics including the synoptic, mesoscale and convective scale phenomena, fundamental processes and some basics about genesis. Yuqing will focus on dynamics including intensity change, maximum potential intensity, and the role of vortex Rossby waves and eddies in TC evolution and intensity. Requirements: Open to undergraduate and graduate students. Undergraduates must have completed MET302, MET303, MET402 and MET406. Graduate students should have completed MET610 or gain permission of the instructor. Class responsibilities: There will be a 15- 20 minute class presentation (25% grade) in the style of an AMS Conference presentation and 2 quizzes, each worth 25%. Class participation (25%) is de rigueur, so if you want to sit quietly then don’t take the course. We want to hear your ideas. The presentation will essentially be a discussion of a topic of the student’s choice, but it must present both the pros and cons of a particular argument. Examples are: SST does or does not control TC intensity, the eyewall and eye do or do not mix, rainbands are or are not factors in TC intensity, easterly waves are or are not important in TC genesis in the East Pacific. We do not want you to simply review a single paper; rather we want you to dig into a particular idea of your choosing. Approximate topics and order – Gary’s portion L1: importance of tropical cyclones: world wide counts, tragedies, role in history - divine wind, Halsey’s fleet, Bangladesh, Galveston, Andrew, costs through the years, the 1938 Hurricane. Roger A. Pielke Jr. and Christopher W. Landsea. 1998: Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925–95. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 621–631. L2, 3: synoptic scale structure of a TC, vortex scale features William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone I. Storm Structure. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1119–1135. L4, 5: angular momentum budget William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone II. Dynamics and Energetics. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1136–1150. L6, 7: mesoscale structure - the eyewall David P. Jorgensen. 1984: Mesoscale and Convective-Scale Characteristics of Mature Hurricanes. Part II. Inner Core Structure of Hurricane Allen (1980). Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 41, No. 8, pp. 1287–1311. L8, 9: mesoscale structure - rainbands G.M. Barnes, E.J. Zipser, D. Jorgensen and F. Marks Jr. 1983: Mesoscale and Convective Structure of a Hurricane Rainband. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 40, No. 9, pp. 2125–2137. L10: vortex scale structure, wind profiles, approximations to the flow, size and strength, heat and momentum sources. Willoughby, 1995, CH2 in Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, ed. By R. Elsberry. (avail. from gary) L11: precipitation field in a TC Frank Marks, 1985: Evolution of the structure of precipitation in Hurricane Allen (1980) Monthly Weather Review, 113, 909-930. Manuel Lonfat, Frank Marks, and Shuyi Chen, 2004: Precipitation distribution in TCs using the TRMM microwave imager: A global perspective. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 1645-1660.
Richard Rotunno and Kerry A. Emanuel. 1987: An Air–Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary Study Using a Nonhydrostatic Axisymmetric Numerical Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 542–561. L14: Genesis –necessary but not sufficient ingredients developing versus non-developing systems – (Gray 1968, McBride 1981 JAS 1117, 1152) John L. McBride and Raymond Zehr. 1981: Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Part II: Comparison of Non-Developing versus Developing Systems. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 1132–1151.
Other possible topics are, and may be substituted if interest demands: L: inflow boundary layer, isothermal expansion, energy budgets, role of spray bulk aerodynamic equations, Bonnie and Gilbert inflow studies Peter G. Black and Greg J. Holland. 1995: The Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclone Kerry (1979). Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 123, No. 7, pp. 2007–2028.
Jorgensen et al. (1985, JAS, 839), Barnes et al. (1991, MWR, 776), Molinari et al (1999, MWR, 520), Black and Willoughby (1992, MWR, 947) E. W. McCaul Jr. 1991: Buoyancy and Shear Characteristics of Hurricane-Tornado Environments. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 119, No. 8, pp. 1954–1978. L: Annual variability forecasting and the bumper crop in 1995 in the Atlantic. William M. Gray, Christopher W. Landsea, Paul W. Mielke Jr. and Kenneth J. Berry. 1993: Predicting Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 August. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 73–86. Christopher W. Landsea, Gerald D. Bell, William M. Gray and Stanley B. Goldenberg. 1998: The Extremely Active 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Environmental Conditions and Verification of Seasonal Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 126, No. 5, pp. 1174–1193. Overview: In this second half of 614, I will focus on some basic dynamics of tropical cyclones and use them to explain both structure and intensity and their changes. Since there is no suitable textbook for the course, I will use some journal papers that are fundamental and updated to the topics we will discuss. I will also briefly discuss modeling and prediction of tropical cyclones with advanced numerical models. The reference papers listed below are tentative.
Governing equations in cylindrical coordinates; axisymmteric balanced model (Eliassen balanced model), asymmetric balanced (AB) model. Shapiro, LJ, and HE Willoughby, 1982: The response of balanced hurricanes to local sources of heat and momentum. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 378-394. Schubert, WH, and JJ Hack, 1982: Inertial stability and tropical cyclone development. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 16871697. Hack, JJ, and WH Schubert, 1986: Nonlinear response of atmospheric vortices to heating by organized cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 15591573. Shapiro LJ, and MT Montgomery, 1993: Three-dimensional balance theory for rapidly rotating vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 3322-3355.
PV concept, eddy processes, and PV mixing in tropical cyclone inner-core region. Schubert WH, et al. 1999: Polygonal eyewalls, asymmetric eye contraction, and potential vorticity mixing in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2196-2209.
Rossby-wave energy dispersion, beta-induced asymmetries, and beta drift of tropical cyclones. Chan, JCL, and RT Williams, 1987: Analytical and numerical studies of the beta-effect in tropical cyclone motion. Part I: Zero mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1257-1265. Fiorino, M., and RL Elsberry, 1989: Some aspects of vortex structure related to tropical cyclone motion. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 975-990. Wang Y. and GJ Holland, 1996: The beta drift of baroclinic vortice. Part I: Adiabatic vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 411-427. Wang Y., and G.J. Holland, 1996: The beta drift of baroclinic vortices. Part II: Diabatic vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3737-3756.
Gravity, and inertia-gravity waves, and vortex Rossby waves in tropical cyclones. Willoughby HE, 1977: Inertia-buoyancy waves in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 1028-1039. Montgomery MT, and RJ Kallenbach, 1997: A theory for vortex Rossby-waves and its application to spiral bands and intensity changes in hurricanes. Quart. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 435-465. Wang, Y., 2002: Vortex Rossby waves in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone. Part I: Overall structure, potential vorticity and kinetic energy budgets. J. Atmos. Sci. 59, 1213-1238.
Concepts of maximum potential intensity, two MPI theories and applications. Emanuel KA, 1986: An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 585-604. Emanuel, KA, 1999: Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature, 401, 665-669. Holland GJ, 1997: The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 2519-2541. Persing J., and MT Montgomery, 2003: Hurricane superintensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2349-2371.
Eyewall cycle, interaction between eyewall and rainbands, PV mixing Wang, Y., 2002: 2002: Vortex Rossby waves in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone. Part II: The role in tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes. J. Atmos. Sci. 59, 1239-1262. Willoughby HE, JA Clos, and MG Shoreibah, 1982: Concentric eyewalls, secondary wind maxima, and the evolution of the hurricane vortex. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 395-411.
Vertical shear effect, SST, translation, etc. Wang Y. and GJ Holland, 1996: Tropical cyclone motion and evolution in vertical shear. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 3313-3332. Frank WM, and EA Ritchie, 1999: Effects of environmental flow upon tropical cyclone structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2044-2061. Jones SC., 1995: The evolution of vortices in vertical shear. Part I: Initially barotropic vortices. Quart. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 821-851. Reasor PD, MT Montgomery, and LD Grasso, 2004: A new look at the problem of tropical cyclones in vertical shear: Vortex resiliency. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 3-22.
Cooperative growing of cumulus convection and synoptic scale vortices, linear and nonlinear CISK, wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) Emanuel, KA, 1989: The finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclogenesis, J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3431-3456. Ooyama, V., 1982: Conceptual evolution of the theory and modeling of the tropical cyclones. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, 369-380.
Highlight the nonlinear behavior of balanced vortices to diabatic heating and the inertial stability of the vortex core. Hack, JJ, and WH Schubert, 1986: Nonlinear response of atmospheric vortices to heating by organized cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 15591573. Schubert, WH, and JJ Hack, 1982: Inertial stability and tropical cyclone development. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 16871697.
Review the history of numerical modeling of tropical cyclones, and the current progress in using advanced models. Ooyama, K., 1969: Numerical simulation of the life-cycle of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 3-40. Liu YB, DL Zhang, and MK Yau, 1997: A multiscale numerical study of hurricane Andrew (1992). Part I: Explicit simulation and verification, Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3073-3093. Wang, Y., 2001: An explicit simulation of tropical cyclones with a triply nested movable mesh primitive equations model–TCM3. Part I: Model description and control experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 1370-1394. Order of topics {approximate # of classes for the topic} *Caution papers subject to change, key papers denoted with a *. course goals, syllabus, expectations and grading {.5} I. Importance of TC - CH1, G.R. Foley {~1} importance of tropical cyclones: world wide counts, tragedies, role in history - divine wind, Halsey’s fleet, Bangladesh, Galveston, Andrew, costs through the years, readings about the 1938 Hurricane. * Roger A. Pielke Jr. and Christopher W. Landsea. 1998: Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925–95. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 621–631. II. Structure of a mature TC - CH2, H. E. Willoughby {10} equation of motion, divergence and vorticity, swirling wind, wind profiles, concentric rings, approximations to the wind, intensity, strength, and size, D-value, modified Rankine vortex, warm core, eyewalls and rainbands, reflectivity structure, equivalent potential temperature, energy fluxes. synoptic scale structure of a TC and angular momentum budget * William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone I. Storm Structure. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1119–1135. *William M. Frank. 1977: The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone II. Dynamics and Energetics. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 105, No. 9, pp. 1136–1150.
*Frank D. Marks Jr., Robert A. Houze Jr. and John F. Gamache. 1992: Dual-Aircraft Investigation of the Inner Core of Hurricane Norbert. Part I: Kinematic Structure. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 49, No. 11, pp. 919–942. eyewalls - Jorgensen (1984a, JAS, 1268) * David P. Jorgensen. 1984: Mesoscale and Convective-Scale Characteristics of Mature Hurricanes. Part II. Inner Core Structure of Hurricane Allen (1980). Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 41, No. 8, pp. 1287–1311. rainbands - Powell (1990a, MWR, 891) * G.M. Barnes, E.J. Zipser, D. Jorgensen and F. Marks Jr.. 1983: Mesoscale and Convective Structure of a Hurricane Rainband. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 40, No. 9, pp. 2125–2137. convective cells – Jorgensen et al. (1985, JAS, 839), Barnes et al. (1991, MWR, 776), Molinari et al (1999, MWR,520), Black and Willoughby (1992, MWR, 947)
*Richard Rotunno and Kerry A. Emanuel. 1987: An Air–Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary Study Using a Nonhydrostatic Axisymmetric Numerical Model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 542–561. * William M. Frank and Elizabeth A. Ritchie. 2001: Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on the Intensity and Structure of Numerically Simulated Hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 129, No. 9, pp. 2249–2269.
*Peter G. Black and Greg J. Holland. 1995: The Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclone Kerry (1979). Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 123, No. 7, pp. 2007–2028. potential vorticity and hurricanes - Molinari et al. (1995, JAS, 3593) and (1997, MWR, 2699) Hanley et al. (2001, MWR, 2570) *Lloyd J. Shapiro and James L. Franklin. 1999: Potential Vorticity Asymmetries and Tropical Cyclone Motion. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 127, No. 1, pp. 124–131. Hanley TC rainfall, an overview of the problem, shear and rain patterns – Rodgers et al. (2003, MWR, 1577) *Eyad H. Atallah and Lance F. Bosart. 2003: The Extratropical Transition and Precipitation Distribution of Hurricane Floyd (1999). Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 131, No. 6, pp. 1063–1081. III. TC formation - CH3, McBride {~5} genesis - necessary but not sufficient ingredients, vorticity spin up demands, climatologies in the various basins, mean conditions for various basins (Sadler atlas), genesis parameter, SOI and genesis, upper level interactions, role of shear, CISK, WISHE - Smith (1997, QJRMS, 407) developing versus non-developing systems – ( Gray 1968, McBride 1981 JAS 1117, 1152) *John L. McBride and Raymond Zehr. 1981: Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Part II: Comparison of Non-Developing versus Developing Systems. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 1132–1151. Carnot heat engine and maximum potential intensity Emanuel (1995, JAS, 3969;1997, JAS 1014) Holland (1997, JAS, 2519) *Kerry A. Emanuel. 1986: An Air-Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Steady-State Maintenance. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 43, No. 6, pp. 585–605. rapid intensification - Bosart et al. (2000, MWR, 322), Shay et al. (2000) * Lance F. Bosart, Christopher S. Velden, W. Edward Bracken, John Molinari and Peter G. Black. 2000: Environmental Influences on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Opal (1995) over the Gulf of Mexico. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 128, No. 2, pp. 322–352. maximum intensity and SST - DeMaria and Kaplan (1994, JCli,1324), Evans (1993, JCli, 1133) IV. Climatic variability {~3} ENSO and genesis - brief review and patterns Gray’s attempts at predicting the Atlantic Basin season climatic variability of hurricanes - Shapiro (1982a,b, MWR, 1007, 1014) *William M. Gray, Christopher W. Landsea, Paul W. Mielke Jr. and Kenneth J. Berry. 1993: Predicting Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 August. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 73–86.
*Christopher W. Landsea, Gerald D. Bell, William M. Gray and Stanley B. Goldenberg. 1998: The Extremely Active 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Environmental Conditions and Verification of Seasonal Forecasts. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 126, No. 5, pp. 1174–1193. V. TC motion - CH4, Elsberry {4} tracks based on climatologies, seasonal variations, steering, Beta effect, baroclinic effects, diabatic influences, TC prediction, statistical and dynamical models, forecast errors Harr and Elsberry (1991, MWR, 1448), Beta effect (Wang (1998) *Greg J. Holland. 1984: Tropical Cyclone Motion. A Comparison of Theory and Observation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 68–75.
Felix over the Bermuda mooring - Dickey et al. (1998, MWR, 1195), Price (1981, JPO, 153) SLOSH *Lynn K. Shay, Gustavo J. Goni and Peter G. Black. 2000: Effects of a Warm Oceanic Feature on Hurricane Opal. Monthly Weather Review: Vol. 128, No. 5, pp. 1366–1383. *S. Daniel Jacob, Lynn K. Shay, Arthur J. Mariano and Peter G. Black. 2000: The 3D Oceanic Mixed Layer Response to Hurricane Gilbert. Journal of Physical Oceanography: Vol. 30, No. 6, pp. 1407–1429. VII. Class presentations {~2} VIII. quizzes {~2} A. structure 1. basic elements: eye, eyewall, moat, rainbands 2. intensity, strength (inner and outer), size 3. asymmetrical and concentric storms 4. horizontal wind - Atlantic and Pacific approximations, modified Rankine Vortex, 5. vertical wind 6. angular momentum - not conserved 7. temperature - anomalies and their interpretation 8. moisture content - specific humidity, dew point depression a. dry and moist static energy b. equivalent potential temperature c. enthalpy 10. reflectivity - horizontal and vertical, rain rates, rain amounts 11. eyewall and rainband specifics - convective and stratiform 12. immature systems - asymmetry and apparent development, wind profiles 13. landfall wind fields - shear, gust factors 14. tornadogenesis, supercells in the cyclone environment 15. potential vorticity - interaction with troughs 16. rates of intensification and decay 17. electrification - outer band maximum 18. diurnal variation - upper level destabilization or deep convective response 19. ocean response -SST cooling, waves, evidence of frictional loss 20. MJO and patterns in the northeast Pacific 21. Interaction with synoptic scale features - Rossby waves and TUTTs 22. triggering mechanisms - easterly waves, monsoon trough, MCS vortices B. fundamental physics 1. latent heat release - heating versus warming 2. net warming - a balance of latent heating and adiabatic cooling 3. energy fluxes at the sea surface a. bulk aerodynamic equations b. transfer coefficients c. role of sea spray 4. isothermal expansion 5. the hurricane as an air-sea instability 6. conservation of angular momentum 8. minimum surface pressure and equivalent potential temperature 9. ventilation of exhaust products 10. radiation budget - Gray’s arguments 11. eyewall replacement 12. CISK and WISHE 13. Carnot heat engine approach C. track 1. typical tracks in each basin 2. seasonal behavior patterns 3. Beta effect - Bin Wang guest lectures 4. synoptic scale forcing - Elsberry’s recent results 5. models used for guidance - CLIPER, SANDBAR, VICBAR, NOGAPS, GFDL, BAMS 6. well-behaved vs. erratic tracks 7. satellites - Dvorak method D. social, economic issues 1. wind, rain, storm surge 2. examples - Camille, Frederic, Andrew, Iniki, Tracy 3. 1900 Galveston , 1984 Alicia 4. recent examples - Iniki, Hugo, Andrew 5. Halsey’s typhoon 6. costs of storms 7. watches and warnings - cost per mile of coast 8. building issues 9. barrier islands 10.evacuation times 11. attempts to modify - Stormfury, flux interference E. instrumentation used to sample TC 1. Surface observations 2. radar a. reflectivity b. Doppler 3. Aircraft sensors - in-situ and remote 4. GPS sonde 5. Satellite a. infrared b. visible c. quickscat
texts and papers Elsberry ed.: Tropical Cyclones Riehl and Malkus Hawkins - Inez Jorgensen Allen and other ew Barnes et al. - rainbands Powell -rainbands Norbert eyewall studies Jorgensen, LeMone, Zipser - w in the cyclone Emanuel Rotunno and Emanuel Yanai - development of a disturbance Barnes and Powell - energy fluxes into the inflow McCaul - tornadoes, Bogner and Barnes Willoughby -SBC Bosart - rains at landfall Frank - synoptic env, budgets McBride and Zehr - dev and non-dev. Large and Pond Betts and Simpson Wu - spray Pielke Jr. - public issues Shay - SST Marks - radar structure Franklin - tracks and ODWs Shapiro - waves, PV, QBO Ooyama -69 Charney
L8: convective scale motions: hot tower, moist static energy and thetae profiles Simpson L9: convective scale observations: Raymond, Norbert and Daisy, statistics from Jorgensen, Willis, Burpee L10: genesis - necessary but not sufficient conditions, McBride findings L11: genesis - Yanai's case study, Isabel L12: physical processes in TC: basic equations and diabatic heating, heating vs warming L13: boundary layer stoking up, heat and moisture flux, angular mometum budget L14: wind structure in the PBL, estimating surface damage L15: warm core creation, P - thetae relationship L16: intensity and SST L17: simulation of a TC: Yamasaki and Rosenthal L18: more simulations: Anthes, Kurihara and Tuleya, Krishnamurti L19: TC forecasting: track, beta effect, deep layer mean, interaction with a trough L20: models to forecast track: VICBAR, SANBAR L21: theories of hurricane development: CISK, air sea interaction L22: oceanic response to TC: surge, upwelling and downwelling L23-26: presentations by class, 30-45 min in length sources 1- texts: Elsberry 1 and 2, Anthes, Riehl 1 and 2 2- refereed papers Yamasaki
Anthes Emanuel
Charney and Eliassen Emanuel and Rotunno Ooyama Willoughby Shapiro Jorgensen Barnes
Marks Yanai
Holland Frank
McBride Fiorino
Riehl and Malkus Molinari
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