Simulation and Prediction of Storm Surges, Waves, and Morphological Changes due to Tropical Cyclones by Using a pc-based Integrated Coastal Process Model

Yan Ding¹, Yaoxin Zhang²,Yafei Jia³, and Mustafa S. Altinakar⁴,

1. National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering (NCCHE), The University of Mississippi, University, MS 38677-1848. Phone: (662) 915-8969, Fax: (662) 915-7796, Email: ding@ncche.olemiss.edu

2. NCCHE, The University of Mississippi, University, MS 38677-1848.

3. NCCHE, The University of Mississippi, University, MS 38677-1848.

4. NCCHE, The University of Mississippi, University, MS 38677-1848.

Fast and accurate assessment of flooding, inundation, and shoreline erosion induced by hurricane is a challenging task due to the complexity of tropical cyclone wind structures and the large- and multi-scale processes of coastal and ocean waters and sediment transport driven by dynamic forcing of astronomical tides, wind waves, storm surges and river inflows. Usually, simulation of wave deformation and transformation in a large regional area from deep ocean water to shallow water in surf zone is much more time-consuming than the effort to simulate storm surges only driven by cyclonic wind forcing. Most existing storm-surge models for hurricane simulations heavily rely on high performance computers which are expensive. Real-time predictions of morphological changes such as shoreline erosions, levee breaching, and barrier island breaching are even more difficult due to lack of scientific knowledge on sediment transport and morphodynamics driven by high waves in a hurricane season.

This presentation highlights NCCHE’s research on development and application of CCHE2D-Coast, a PC-based integrated coastal process modeling system, for simulating and predicting storm surges, waves, sediment transport, and morphological changes (shoreline erosions) during hurricane events. A brief description on the framework of mathematical theories and numerical technologies will be given. Model validations by hindcasting surface water levels and waves of Hurricane Gustav (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico and Hurricane Sandy (2012) in the Atlantic Ocean will be presented. A real-time prediction capability of the model will be demonstrated by forecasting flooding risk of Hurricane Isaac (2012) in the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The applicability of the morphodynamic modeling will be also demonstrated by presenting a case study of a river estuary. This presentation will further give an engineering application of this modeling system for seeking solutions of coastal flood protection in the low-lying area in New Jersey by considering the combined condition of tropical cyclone and sea level rise due to climate change.

Dr. Yan Ding is a Research Associate Professor at the National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering in the University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS. His research interests focus on the study of flood and inundation mitigation, erosion protection, environmental impact assessment using integrated process modeling, and simulation-based optimization for control of flood and sediment transport. He is the primary model developer of CCHE2D-Coast, an integrated coastal/estuarine/ocean/riverine process modeling system. He has published 7 book chapters, and more than 100 peer-reviewed journal papers and conference articles. His memberships in professional societies include the ASCE - COPR and the ASCE - EWRI.