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MGW 2011 Gonzalez-Spring-McCullough Lab

Asteroids Aff Page of

Asteroids Aff

****Supplemental section of the file (for printing purposes, starts at p. 102)****

Asteroids Aff 1

1AC – 6

1AC- Inherency 7

1AC – Harms 10

1AC – Plan 16

1AC – Solvency 17

1AC – Framework 23

A2 – Case Presses 27

A2: SQ detection solves 28

A2: Hype 34

A2: SQ Deflection Solves 36

A2 – Russia Solves Your Aff 37

A2 Russia Solves: Russia Will use NW 39

A2 – Outer Space Treaty Solves Nuclear Use 40

A2 - CPs 41

US Key – A2 International CP 42

A2 – Unilateral Policy Bad / International CP 47

A2: EU CP 48

A2 Russia CP 49

A2 – Referendum CP 54

A2 Consult 56

A2: CP use other Sats 57

A2: Ground-based CP 58

A2 Delay 62

NASA = Normal Means 64

Role of NASA and DOD 65

A2: Das & Ks 66

A2: Spending 67

A2 – Moon Base Tradeoff 68

A2 Nasa Tradeoff DA 71

A2 Zizek 72

A2 – Doomsaying K 74

A2 – Anthropocentrism K 75

Asteroids Education – T & Fwk 76

Key to solve 77

Uniqueness – Asteroid Education Low Now 79

Asteroid Communication k to policy 80

Ethics/Framework 81

High Risk of Extinction 82

Extinction FW good 87

Future Discounting 88

OW nuclear war 89

Small Asteroid OW Nuclear War 90

Nuclear War ≠ Extinction 91

Moral Obligation 94

Add-Ons 95

Add-on – Space Colonization 96

I/L – NEO Solve colonization 100

Space-Based Key to Exploration 103

Add-On Global Warming 106

Non-prolif leadership Add-on 108

Add-on – Space leadership 109

I/L – Space Leadership K2 Leadership 111

Add-On – Asteroid Mining 113

2ac – Kuiper-Belt Add-on 118

**** Supplement Starts HERE **** 121

Asteroids Coming 122

Brink – Small Asteroids 123

Brink – Apophis 124

A2: Apophis will miss us 127

Risk of NEO high 128

Global Killer Possible 133

A2 Not Imminent 134

Timeframe – Short 135

Timeframe – Overdue 136

At Least Every 100 years 139

2012 Asteroid 140

NEO in 2098 142

NEO in 2182 143

Asteroids coming all the time 144

Inh- No defense now 147

Solvency – Detection 148

Detection sucks now 149

Detection – Lead Time 151

Venus Orbit Telescope Solves 157

Solvency – Venus Satellite 162

I/L - Survey key to deflection 163

A2: No Deflection – Won’t co-operate 165

A2: Squo funding Solves 166

Deflection good – Detection Needed 168

A2: No Panic 169

A2: Deflection Dilemma (Sagan) 171

A2: Climate Change Outweighs 172

Atlas good 174

Solvency – Deflection 177

Solvency – Laundry List 178

Solvency – Must Use Multiple Deflection Methods 179

Deflection 181

Direct Push 182

Solvency – Screw Rockets / Mass Driver 183

Lasers 186

Mirrors 188

Solvency – Lasers & Mirrors 190

Gravity Tractor – Solves 191

Solvency – Kinetic Impactors 194

Paint 197

Solar Sail 198

Nets 199

Gravity Tractors 200

Mission to Asteroid 201

Apophis – Gravity Tractor 202

Apophis – Space Tug 203

Nuclear Weapons 205

NW Now 206

NWs Fail – explode on Earth 209

NW Fail - Fragmentation 211

Frag Bad – prevents deflection 215

NW Fail – Standoff blast fails 216

Asteroids = Excuse for Nuclear Weapons 218

NWs Fail – Porous NEOs 219

Impacts – Asteroid Strikes 220

Impact Calc-Err Aff 221

Probability High 224

OWs Nuclear War 226

A2 – We Can Recover / Adapt 227

Asteroid Impact – Extinction 230

Asteroid  Extinction / Short Timeframe 235

Asteroid  Extinction / Inevitable 236

Asteroid  Impact Winter 239

Asteroid Impact- Blocking Sun 240

Asteroid  Oxygen Depletion 241

Asteroid  Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions 242

Asteroid  Pole Reversal 244

Asteroid Impact- Energy 246

Asteroid  EMP 247

Asteroid Impact – Tsunami 250

Asteroid Impact- Global Firestorm 251

Asteroid Impact- Climate Change 252

Asteroid impact – Economy 253

Small Asteroids 256

Impact – Ozone 257

Ozone Depletion  Extinction 259

Small Asteroids Impact – EMP 260

Small Asteroids Impact - Economy 261

Small Asteroid  Accidental Nuclear War 263

Small Asteroid  Society Collapse 265


Asteroid Deflection Key to Comet Deflection 269

1AC Comet Impact 270

Long Period Comet – Link 271

Long Period Comet  Extinction 272

Small Comet Impact 273

A2 – Comets Key 274

A2 – Jupiter Protects: Comets 275

1AC –

1AC- Inherency

Observation One is the Status Quo- Near Earth Objects (or NEOs) will inevitably strike the planet, only early warning through detection can prevent catastrophe.

The Australian Magazine, 2009, October 17, 2009, “'Roid rage - SCIENCE WATCH”, Lexis, 6/27/11, CF

It may sound like the plot of a bad science-fiction movie from the 1990s (think Deep Impact or Armageddon) but there is a one in ten chance Earth will be struck by a dangerous object from space sometime this century, according to a report just published in New Scientist. Advances in telescope technology over the past decade have enabled astronomers to identify at least 20,000 asteroids and comets that pose a risk to our planet. So real is the threat that, for the first time, the US air force recently assembled a team of scientists, military and emergency-response officials to assess the nation's ability to cope should an asteroid or comet strike. Because they're travelling at such great speed (something like 20km a second) asteroids don't have to be huge to do a lot of damage. In 1908 an asteroid estimated to have been 60m across - a mere rock by cosmic standards - exploded as it hit the lower atmosphere over Tunguska, Siberia, flattening hundreds of square kilometres of forest. And a year ago an asteroid the size of a car broke up over Sudan; a telescope observer spotted it just 20 hours before impact. If an asteroid or comet does strike, let's hope it hits land rather than sea: a two-km-wide object hitting an ocean would trigger tsunamis that would turn many of the world's coastal cities into mudflats. Earth has suffered at least 130 major impacts that scientists know of, and at least a handful have been ELEs - "extinction level events", wiping out more than 80 per cent of life on the planet. The greatest threat are from "rogue" comets dislodged by gravity from their orbits in the Oort Cloud, on the outer edge of our solar system. If one of these icy stumps were to hurtle towards Earth millions of us could be at risk. So if a killer asteroid was on a collision course with Earth, what could be done about it? Detonating a nuclear device on it, as in Armageddon, isn't a realistic option. To deflect an asteroid sufficiently from its trajectory, force would need to be applied years in advance, reports New Scientist. The best we can hope for is an early warning system that would allow us to predict the time and location of the impact. Then what? Run like hell.

Unfortunately, NASA is drastically underprepared for the inevitable NEO strike – NASA doesn’t have adequate detection to provide early warming.

Mercury, 2009 Hobart Mercury, August 14, 2009, Nationwide News Pty Limited, “Lack of funds hampers killer asteroid hunt”, Lexis Nexis, 6/21/11, CF

Top of Form

NASA is supposed to seek out almost all the asteroids that threaten Earth, but lacks the money to do the job. That's because even though US Congress gave the space agency this mission four years ago, it never gave NASA money to build the necessary telescopes, says a report released this week by the National Academy of Sciences. Specifically, NASA has been ordered to spot 90 per cent of potentially deadly rocks hurtling through space by 2020. Even without the money, NASA says it has completed about one-third of its assignment with its current telescope system. The agency estimates about 20,000 asteroids and comets in Earth's solar system bigger than 140m in diameter are potential threats to the planet. So far, scientists know where about 6000 of the objects are. Rocks between 140m and 1000m in diameter can devastate an entire region but not the whole planet, said Lindley Johnson, NASA's manager of the near-Earth objects program. Objects bigger than that are even more threatening. Just last month, astronomers were surprised when an object of unknown size and origin bashed into Jupiter and created an Earth-sized bruise that is still spreading. Jupiter gets slammed more often than Earth because of its immense gravity, enormous size and location. Near misses in previous years have alerted people to the threat. But when it comes to doing something about monitoring the threat, the academy concluded: ``There has been relatively little effort by the US Government.'' And the US Government is practically the only government doing anything at all, the report found. ``It shows we have a problem we're not addressing,'' said Louis Friedman, executive director of the Planetary Society, an advocacy group.

And, the current NASA mission only allows for ground-based NEO detection, which will fail. Only Space-based detection can adequately solve.

National Academies, 10 [ Over many decades, the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council have earned a solid reputation as the nation's premier source of independent, expert advice on scientific, engineering, and medical issues, “Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies”]
Congress has established for NASA two mandates addressing near-Earth object (NEO) detection. The first mandate, now known as the Spaceguard Survey, directed the agency to detect 90 percent of near-Earth objects 1 kilometer in diameter or greater by 2008. By 2009, the agency was close to meeting that goal. Although the estimate of this population is continually revised, as astronomers gather additional data about all NEOs (and asteroids and comets in general), these revisions are expected to remain. The 2009 discovery of asteroid 2009 HC82, a 2- to 3-kilometer-diameter NEO in a retrograde (“backwards”) orbit, is, however, a reminder that some NEOs 1 kilometer or greater in diameter remain undetected. The second mandate, the George E. Brown, Jr. Near-Earth Object Survey section of the NASA Authorization Act of 2005 (Public Law 109-155), directed that NASA detect 90 percent of near-Earth objects 140 meters in diameter or greater by 2020. However, what the surveys actually focus on is not all NEOs but the potentially hazardous NEOs. It is possible for an NEO to come close to Earth but never to intersect Earth’s orbit and therefore not be potentially hazardous. The surveys are primarily interested in the potentially hazardous NEOs, and that is the population that is the focus of this chapter. Significant new equipment (i.e., ground-based and/or space-based telescopes) will be required to achieve the latter mandate. The administration did not budget and Congress did not approve new funding for NASA to achieve this goal, and little progress on reaching it has been made during the past 5 years. The criteria for the assessment of the success of an NEO detection mandate rely heavily on estimates that could be in error, such as the size of the NEO population and the average reflectivity properties of an object’s surface. For many years, the average albedo (fraction of incident visible light reflected from an object’s surface) of NEOs was taken to be 0.11. More recent studies (Stuart and Binzel, 2004) determined that the average albedo was more than 25 percent higher, or 0.14, with significant variation in albedo present among the NEOs. The variation among albedos within the NEO population also contributes to the uncertainties in estimates of the expected hazardous NEO population. This difference implies that, on average, NEOs have diameters at least 10 percent smaller than previously thought, changing scientists’ understanding of the distribution of the NEO population by size. Ground-based telescopes have difficulty observing NEOs coming toward Earth from near the Sun’s direction because their close proximity to the Sun—as viewed from Earth—causes sunlight scattered by Earth’s atmosphere to be a problem and also poses risks to the telescopes when they point toward these directions. Objects remaining in those directions have orbits largely interior to Earth’s; the understanding of their number is as yet very uncertain. In addition, there are objects that remain too far from Earth to be detected almost all of the time. The latter include Earth-approaching comets (comets with orbits that approach the Sun at distances less than 1.3 astronomical units [AU] and have periods less than 200 years), of which 151 are currently known. These represent a class of objects probably doomed to be perpetually only partly known, as they are not likely to be detected in advance of a close Earth encounter. These objects, after the completion of exhaustive searches for NEOs, could dominate the impact threat to humanity. Thus, assessing the completeness of the NEO surveys is subject to uncertainties: Some groups of NEOs are particularly difficult to detect. Asteroids and comets are continually lost from the NEO population because they impact the Sun or a planet, or because they are ejected from the solar system. Some asteroids have collisions that change their sizes or orbits. New objects are introduced into the NEO population from more distant reservoirs over hundreds of thousands to millions of years. The undiscovered NEOs could include large objects like 2009 HC82 as well as objects that will be discovered only months or less before Earth impact (“imminent impactors”). Hence, even though 85 percent of NEOs larger than 1 kilometer in diameter might already have been discovered, and eventually more than 90 percent of NEOs larger than 140 meters in diameter will be discovered, NEO surveys should nevertheless continue, because objects not yet discovered pose a statistical risk: Humanity must be constantly vigilant. Finding: Despite progress toward or completion of any survey of near-Earth objects, it is impossible to identify all of these objects because objects’ orbits can change, for example due to collisions. Recommendation: Once a near-Earth object survey has reached its mandated goal, the search for NEOs should not stop. Searching should continue to identify as many of the remaining objects and objects newly injected into the NEO population as possible, especially imminent impactors.

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