Figure 13. Habitat suitability for pumas (left) and jaguars (right) in the Upper Parana Atlantic Forest eco-region, estimated using ecological niche factor analysis (De Angelo, 2009).
At present, we are implementing a more detailed analysis for jaguars using generalized lineal models. Our preliminary results showed that jaguar persistence is determined not only by present conditions of this fragmented forest, but also by the fragmentation history of the landscape. Characteristics of surrounding land use and human pressure were also important to determinate jaguar presence in the forest remnants of the UPAF. A bidimensional model of habitat suitability is allowing us to determine the probable spatial structure of jaguar population and to detect priority areas to implement different management actions to preserve both this species and the UPAF (see De Angelo 2009).
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