Assessment of Extinction Risk of the Colombian Birds Eleven Years Later

Assessment of extinction risk is fundamental for conservation planning and practice. Risk assessment is heavily dependent on available information. We evaluated extinction risk for the birds of Colombia following the IUCN criteria through a highly collaborative process to compile information. We invited ornithologists and highly qualified birdwatchers to provide information ranging from records to writing species accounts. 142 people compiled species accounts on 212 bird species. Several institutions and a number of scientist provided information that was used in the assessment process. We found significant changes on species status between 2002 and 2013. Some of these changes were due to genuine status changes involving declines or improvements on bird populations and habitats. Also, a number of changes were due to improvements on knowledge, description of new species and taxonomic changes.

Marine management is never an exclusively science-based endeavour. Putting the concept of ecosystem-based management (EBM) into practice requires building up a collective vision for Europe's regional seas where the values and views of different groups of stakeholders are indentified and integrated. To date, such integration is lacking and Europe's marine policy is mostly driven by scientific and technical advice with little input from citizens and stakeholders. Here we report an overview of people's perceptions and views regarding marine environmental issues, where the opinions of the general population and a group of marine experts were analysed and compared. Results based on 735 face-to-face interviews conducted in the Azores archipelago (north-eastern mid-Atlantic) showed significant differences among experts and public opinion regarding drivers of change, marine pressures and management priorities. The survey also showed that the public was poorly informed about marine protected areas and eco-labelling schemes. Taken together these results build upon the widely held perception that there is a gap between what is known among the scientific community and what the public know and understand about the marine environment, and emphasise the importance of involving the public, scientists and other stakeholders in all stages of the marine management process.

In the past two decades substantial progress has been made in developing theory and tools for solving systematic conservation planning problems. However, there has been much less progress in understanding how human social systems influence conservation priorities. Here we address this issue for dynamic conservation planning problems. We start with a well-known formulation of the dynamic reserve selection problem, where we have a series of sites, each containing a number of species, and the objective is to find the optimal sequence of sites to reserve through time. We then overlay a social network on these sites to represent social connections between site land-owners. Each land-owner has a certain probability of developing their site in a way that results in the loss of species at that site and makes the site unavailable for future reservation. The links between land-owners in the social network introduce social dependencies between land-holders’ decisions to develop their sites based on the assumption that connected land-holders are more likely to behave similarly. We show that optimal strategies depend on both the structure of the social network and the distribution of species relative to that network. Importantly, the benefit of explicitly using information about the social network also depends on the strength of the links between land-holders and how species are distributed among sites. This provides important insights for conservation planning in coupled human-ecological systems.

Peary caribou, a species at risk listed as both threatened and endangered, is distributed throughout the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Overall, populations have declined by approximately 72% since the 1980s and by 85% since the 1960s. The exception is the Boothia Peninsula population, which has increased by about 10%. Peary caribou optimize habitat use by moving around and between islands and these inter- and intra-island movements play a critical role in their survival. Our goal is to examine the feasibility of using a spatially-explicit population model to examine the effects of potential threats and mitigation measures. We will also incorporate Aboriginal Traditional Knowledge into these models by applying Bayesian methods. Threats, such as availability of winter forage, effects of climate change (e.g., sea-ice dynamics), human disturbance, and wolf predation will be examined. Mitigation measures, such as captive rearing will also be examined. Preliminary results of population growth rates under various scenarios that include both threats and mitigation measures will be discussed.

Persistence of populations depends on both population size and genetic viability. However, few studies are able to integrate data on long-term population trends and genetic viability in order to predict population persistence. In this study, we combined more than 10 years of demographic census data with genetic estimates of effective population size in eleven populations of the wood frog (Rana sylvatica), the most broadly distributed amphibian in North America. The wood frog life history and breeding phenology present an ideal system to explore the predictive utility of genetic estimates of population size. Specifically, we tested how well estimates of effective population size obtained from genetic data predict long-term demographic trends within a habitat. We found a strong correlation between genetic and census estimates of population size, suggesting that genetic estimates obtained in only a single sampling effort can provide an accurate picture of demographic dynamics. While there is no replacement for long-term monitoring of populations, our data suggest that genetic estimates offer a rapid and robust assessment of both trends in populations size and genetic viability. Considering that conservation management often requires timely information on imperiled populations, efficiencies gained during the assessment phase can provide an important advantage for the conservation of amphibians and other taxa.

Reintroductions of endangered species are increasingly being led by community groups as part of local conservation projects. Although these initiatives have many potential benefits, they present new challenges for obtaining the post-release monitoring data needed for ongoing conservation management. We review the post-release monitoring techniques developed for the reintroduction of an endangered New Zealand forest bird, the hihi (stitchbird, Notiomystis cincta), to New Zealand's largest community conservation project, Maungatautari Ecological Island. This large (3400 ha) predator-fenced reserve presented new monitoring challenges due to its size, terrain and dense forest. 135 hihi were released at the reserve in four translocations between 2009 and 2011, and subsequent information on the fate of the population has been gathered through a combination of field and genetic research, and trialling of survey techniques using contractors, researchers, field staff and volunteers. The combination of these methodologies has enabled comprehensive information to be gathered to provide estimates of population size and growth, information on the occurrence of disease, and data on dispersal patterns in an establishing reintroduced population. We aim to establish long-term monitoring programmes at the site that continue to integrate science and communities, and provide conservation benefits for this endangered species.

Understanding the link between spatial patterns of genetic structure and dispersal mechanisms is fundamental for the conservation of plant populations in fragmented landscapes. Plants exhibit a variety of vectors influencing the distance, direction, and destination at which seeds are deposited. Directed dispersal by animals has an influence spatial dynamics of plant populations, but empirical data are lacking on the potential of directed dispersal by grazing of domestic animals on gene flow across the landscape. We investigated the effect of large-flock shepherding on landscape genetic structure in the calcareous grassland plant Dianthus carthusianorum. Based on eleven nuclear microsatellites, we found a significant pattern of genetic structure differentiating calcareous grassland patches of three non-overlapping herding systems and ungrazed patches. Among ungrazed patches, we found a significant and strong effect of isolation by distance (rM = 0.55, p = 0.001). In contrast, genetic distance between grazed patches within the same herding system was unrelated to geographic distance but significantly related to distance along shepherding routes (rM = 0.45, p = 0.001). The distance-dependent effect of shepherding suggests that gene flow occurs mostly between adjacent populations. The differences in genetic structure between ungrazed patches and patches connected by shepherding indicate the potential of dispersal by grazing on seed-mediated gene flow across the landscape.

Public participation in scientific research has been going on for decades and even centuries in some places. Recently there has been an explosion of interest as increasingly engaged citizens are eager to document their interactions with nature at the same time that conservation scientists are demanding real-time biological data at massive scales. While most programs focus on adult sightings, monarch scientists have pioneered engaging "super-volunteers" to collect more process-based data, such as tracking migration, juvenile development, and disease. We surveyed all monarch volunteer programs that collected data in 2011, quantified the amount of time volunteers invested in collecting data for each project, and integrated these values, stratified by spatial location (at a 1 degree resolution) and stage of the monarch's annual cycle. Volunteers spent an estimated 86,000 hours in the field collecting data on monarchs in 2011; this is the equivalent of 40 full-time, year-round field workers. The majority of this time (70%) was spent on monitoring the fall migration, especially in the north central and eastern regions of North America. We also present a monitoring "gap analysis" that can be used to target future volunteer recruitment. Finally, we show that monitoring is leading to a more engaged citizenry, through volunteers who are participating in conservation and education activities and even presenting scientific results of their own research at national meetings.

Several methodologies are available to determine the climate change mitigation potential and monetization of the carbon benefits. In a system for pricing and trading carbon "credits", the value of carbon is based on regulatory penalties for emissions, as well as incentives for reducing or offsetting emissions. The second method for valuing carbon is a model to determine the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), which is based on the projected social damages of climate change due to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This model, developed by the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IAWGSCC) to determine national-scale impacts of federal policy, estimates a dollar value for the societal impact of CO2 emissions, as well as the reduction or offset of such emissions. Examples of factors considered and monetized in the model are projected financial losses due to property damage from coastal storms and sea level rise, increases in human health problems due to heat waves or increasing risk of infectious disease, and reductions in agricultural productivity. Downscaling this model to consider project-scale CO2 impacts is an option for improving the evaluation of benefits of investing in ecosystem restoration projects. This paper describes a recent project for Massachusetts Division of Ecological Restoration (DER) to evaluate the carbon benefits and reductions in SCC as a result of two wetland restoration projects in Massachusetts.

Social, political and economic needs, particularly in developing countries, make the establishment, design and management of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) difficult. In this study, we aim to assist the management of three coastal regions in Mexico, by proposing priority conservation areas (PCAs), based on β-diversity modelling and landscape metrics. Quantitative estimates on the percentage of cover of benthic substrates from ground truthed sites were used to perform a cluster analysis with the Bray-Curtis similarity index to identify main habitat types. In general, habitats were characterized by an inter-mix of sand, seagrass, macroalgae, rhodolith, and rock substrates. Thematic maps of benthic habitats were produced utilizing a supervised classification with the maximum likelihood rule on natural color mosaics of high resolution satellite scenes (overall accuracy >80 %, Kappa > 0.69). Scripts written in Matlab were then used to calculate β-diversity values based on the nature and distribution of habitats. A weighted overlay analysis considering habitat type, patch compactness (area/perimeter2) and β-diversity was performed to identify PCAs. About 20 % of the shallow benthic landscape of each region is proposed to be considered within a MPA scheme. By selecting sites with these landscape characteristics we are using a systematic approach to protect the natural processes responsible for maintaining diversity and the livelihoods of the local communities.

Scarcity of natural resources can be a significant source of conflict, but recent work has questioned the predictive capacity of this connection. While many existing models of conflict use natural resources as external inputs, many renewable resources are linked to human behaviors within complex social-ecological systems. Direct attempts to extend existing models with additional feedback loops can result in runaway feedback or unrealistic fitted parameter values. This study presents a new method of coupling natural and human systems, through a Bayesian framework. This method allows models to be combined and to overlap without re-estimating parameters. It also provides stochastic predictions under chaotic dynamics, while enforcing a degree of stability. The paper also presents an extension that enables models defined at different scales to be combined, forming multi-level models. The method is analyzed on both theoretical and practical grounds, and applied to a model of conflict driven by renewable natural resources. Conflict is modeled using an economic framework developed in Olsson 2008, while renewable resources are modeled using simple growth functions. Finally, spatially distributed conflict is simulated on a grid, and coupled across scales with aggregate natural resources.

Land conservation policies can significantly affect deforestation rates and economic well-being in surrounding areas. We try to explain the sign and the magnitude of these effects in Costa Rica. First, we empirically examine how parks affect deforestation rates in nearby areas. We find, without distinguishing roads and tourism presence, insignificant net effects on deforestation. However, these results are averages of treatment effects across space. When we explore in greater spatial detail, we find large increases in deforestation rates (around 9%) near roads in areas less affected by tourism (far from park’s entrances). Second, we explore parks’ effects on wages as a measure of well-being. The effects on wages in nearby areas also vary according to the presence of tourism. Wages close to parks are higher only for people living near tourist entrances. Workers close to entrances are not only employed in better paid activities but also receive higher wages for these activities.

Many populations of stream fish persist in remnant patches that are isolated by anthropogenic barriers. Risk-averse management of such populations could involve either of two contrasting strategies: (1) restoration of connectivity, which averts risks associated with small population size, or (2) maintenance of isolation, which averts risks associated with the mixing of divergent gene pools. The optimal strategy depends on the relative magnitudes of these "small-population" (SP) versus "outbreeding-depression" (OD) risks, which depend on the demographic and genetic characteristics of populations and evolutionary relationships between populations. We developed a framework to facilitate comparison of SP and OD risks based on published risk criteria and commonly available data. To illustrate how the framework could guide conservation choices, we applied it to seven isolated populations of Roanoke logperch (Percina rex), an endangered stream fish. Both risk types varied considerably among populations, suggesting that a uniform management strategy would be ineffective. Only one population exhibited low risk for both types, whereas four exhibited high SP (but not OD) risk and two exhibited moderate OD (but not SP) risk. Based on this analysis, four P. rex populations could benefit from restored connectivity, whereas two should remain isolated. Our approach could be used to develop transparent, science-based management strategies for P. rex, as well as other rare or imperiled taxa.

Fully protected marine reserves are areas completely off limits to fishing and other extractive uses. In the last half century, hundreds of reserves have been established in coastal settings where they have proven to be powerful tools for rebuilding depleted populations, restoring biodiversity and recovering habitats. Previously exploited populations frequently increase by 2-5 times following 5-10 years of protection, while habitats typically take decades to rebuild. The great majority of fully protected marine reserves established to date have been small, usually less than a few square kilometres. While a few very large reserves have been created, such as that in the British Indian Ocean Territory (Chagos), their effects remain virtually untested at very large scales and in oceanic rather than coastal habitats. This talk will explore the implications of these differences for the likely future conservation performance of large marine reserves.

Unburnt patches within fire boundaries are considered to act as refuges for fauna, facilitating survival and persistence within fire-prone landscapes. Accordingly, the retention of unburnt patches is often an aim of ecological fire planning. Moreover, when challenged by wildfire, recent planned burns are thought to resist burning or to burn at lower severity than surrounding long unburnt vegetation, thereby creating future refuges. However, the value of unburnt patches has rarely been examined. This study aimed to determine the relative importance of unburnt patches of long and short time-since-fire periods in predicting the persistence of birds in burnt landscapes, within the context of a 'mega-fire'. Surveys were conducted in eucalypt forest of south-east Australia that had experienced a 'mega-fire' in 2009. Sites (n=91) ranged in fire severity from unburnt to crown burnt. Fire history prior to 2009 was defined as recently burnt (20 years). Our results revealed declining species richness and abundance with increasing fire severity. However, the magnitude of this effect was greater for long time-since-fire sites. Unburnt patches created due to recent fire were important avian refuges, harbouring more species than more severely burnt habitat; but exhibited lower bird abundance than unburnt patches of older vegetation. Such insights can inform decision-making in the use of planned fire to achieve ecologically positive outcomes for birds.