Adv 1 – Leadership

Disease Impact – economy

These events share something in common: the associated diseases are caused by micro-organisms that have been able to pass from their original animal host to humans. The looming risk is that once they have accomplished this first step, they may further evolve and develop the capacity to sustain person-to-person transmission. Arguably, in human populations that have had no prior exposure to these pathogens, such ‘invasions’ cause fear and can potentially lead to severe pandemics. Economic Impacts The economic impacts of these novel diseases are enormous, even when human morbidity and mortality remain comparatively low. For example, in 2003, globally SARS involved some 8,500 cases and killed less than one thousand people, yet it represented an economic loss of approximately two percent of East Asia regional GDP for the second quarter of that year. Moreover, during SARS, infection minimization efforts resulted in a dramatic supply shock due to workplace absenteeism, disruption of production processes and shifts to more costly procedures, as well as severe demand shocks for service sectors such as restaurants, hotels, stores, supermarkets, tourism, and mass transportation (Brahmbhatt, 2005). Precise quantification of the full costs of emerging zoonotic diseases on livestock industries is complicated by the fact that impacts propagate up- and downstream through supply and distribution networks, and that short term reactions are likely to be followed by longer term adjustments. However, some estimates indicating the order of magnitude of losses can be found. It has been estimated that Mad Cow disease resulted in losses amounting to US$10–$13 billion in the UK alone. In Canada, the discovery of one case of Mad Cow disease in cattle (and not a single human case) in May 2003 was sufficient to cause losses in the order of US$1.5 billion. For 2009, Mexican authorities estimate that Pandemic H1N1 Influenza cost their economy over US$2 billion, much of which comes from foregone revenues in trade and tourism. It is estimated that for the U.S. a severe influenza pandemic might cause economic losses between US$71 and US$167 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. The World Bank predicts that a highly fatal HPAI pandemic could cost the world economy as much as US$800 billion a year (Baumuller and Heymann, 2010; Meltzer et al., 1999).

Disease Impact – trade

Disease collapses trade and leads to economic collapse

Hansch 08 – Teaches at Stanford about disaster response, has lectured and taught courses on humanitarian aid, with a primary focus on NGO capacity building, at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, Georgetown's McDonough School of Business, the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health, Columbia University, the University of Wisconsin at Madison (the Disaster Management Program) and American University, conducted field work implementing and developing disaster response programs in Ethiopia, Sudan, Kosovo, Rwanda, Azerbaijan and Somalia, working with NGOs like the International Rescue Committee, CARE, Relief International, and Partners for Development, served as Program Director of the NGO consortium Food Aid Management, served as Senior Program officer at the Refugee Policy Group, where he led evaluations of NGO field programs and organized a number of lessons-learned workshops among emergency NGOs. (Steve, June 15, “food, nutrition and livelihood preparedness For a pandemic influenza disaster Guidance for low-income countries” http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnadu257.pdf)
The household economic implications would not be limited to the periods of influenza infection and deaths. Rather, an economic crisis would endanger millions of additional lives in advance of and even in the absence of the virus ever arriving in a community, due to global economic contractions. Those experts who have examined the transport and economic effects of a pandemic predict that liquidities and insolvencies would lead to a global recession.46 In other words, there would be a 28% reduction in demand, reductions in trade, investment, and a rise in unemployment. Even if large banks are relatively prepared for continuity through a 10-week epidemic, the economic contraction will expose many banks' inability to manage outstanding debt, similar to the crisis in 1998 after the East Asian financial crisis forced industry-wide reforms of the banking sector. In a pandemic, food and economic disruption may be greatly amplified by interruptions in the transport and delivery of energy, particularly petroleum which is required for transport.47 Port closures to contain an epidemic would automatically reduce travel and transport. The short-term SARS epidemic led to 1% reductions in gross income in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and billions in losses to Canada. The plague in Surat, India led to trade embargoes, outmigration, job loss and mass migration out of Surat, costing a relatively poor economy an estimated $2 billion. Milan Brhmbhatt and Arindam Dutta also estimate that the cholera epidemic which reached Peru in 1991 cost $770 million.48

But none of these examples come close to exemplifying what would happen in the case of a pandemic that killed millions in every part of the world. The extent of a 1918-like pandemic could be enough to close all ports and reduce all trade, including trade between regions and cities in a country or district.

Causes a long term backlash against trade

COWEN AND MORALES 02 (Peter Cowen, D.V.M., Ph.D. Associate Professor, Department of Farm Animal Health and Resource Management North Carolina State University College of Veterinary Medicine and Roberta A. Morales, D.V.M., Ph.D. Senior Research Scientist, Center for Regulatory Economics and Policy Research Research Triangle Institute, The emergence of zoonotic diseases: understanding the impact on animal and human health : workshop summary, googlebooks)
Unfortunately, the specific relationships between trade, economics, and the emergence of disease have not been adequately characterized. One question, for example, is how the West Nile virus got to the Western Hemisphere. It may have been due to human travel, mosquitoes traveling in airplanes, altered patterns for migratory birds, traffic between zoological parks, or some other mechanism. We need to get very specific in terms of what disease has been caused by what specific economic activity or demographic change. It is important that we begin to unravel the causal web in derail and put some specificity on trade as a cause of disease. Molecular epidemiology tools might be very valuable in such an endeavor. Whatever the etiology, the introduction of a major zoonotic disease has the potential for resulting in significant alterations in the structure of world trade. A particularly dramatic and threatening zoonotic disease linked to a trading incident could potentially shift globalization trends to a much more protectionist stance.

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