AIPAC DA
That causes Israeli strikes on Iran – turns the impact to the net benefit
Silverstein 09 (Richard, 3-15, writes Tikun Olam, a blog dedicated to resolution of the Israeli-Arab conflict. He also contributed to the Independent Jewish Voices , “Aipac's hidden persuaders”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/may/13/aipac-iran-us-obama)
Israel is in the midst of a massive diplomatic, political and intelligence campaign, both public and covert, that could lead – if those officials behind it have their way – towards a military strike on Iran. It is a war for the hearts and minds of Americans. Or you might call it the war before the war. In intelligence circles, this Israeli project is known as perception management and defined by the department of defence as: Actions to convey and/or deny information … to foreign audiences to influence their emotions, motives and objective reasoning as well as to intelligence systems and leaders … ultimately resulting in foreign behaviours and official actions favourable to [US] objectives. In various ways, perception management combines truth projection, operations security, cover and deception and psychological operations. The Israelis are following the template of the Bush administration's run-up to the Iraq war. First, the US government advocated half-hearted efforts at diplomatic engagement. Then it ratcheted up pressure through sanctions and UN resolutions. That is where the Israeli campaign stands now. Aipac's members carried a unified message to Capitol Hill during their lobbying of US senators and members of Congress. They demanded that Congress pass the most draconian sanctions ever proposed against Iran. They demanded that Iran be offered a limited time in which to respond to an ultimatum insisting it drop its nuclear programme. What then? If you review Aipac's literature and the various commentaries published either by Israeli diplomats or their supporters in the US media, they don't specify what comes next. But any sensible person can guess that the final step will be war: "Israeli leaders have … hinted at pre-emptive military strikes if they decide that diplomacy has failed."
A2 Japan QPQ CP
Arms Race T/
China will start an arms race if it perceives a threat from Japan or the US
Chu 8 (Shulong, Prof of political science and international relations, Brookings, January, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2008/01_east_asia_chu/01_east_asia_chu.pdf)
However, China may change its national strategy in the future. First, it will accumulate more and more resources to increase its military buildup dramatically. Economically speaking, China today and in coming decades is in the position of the former Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s, with the economic and financial resources to engage in a sort of arms race with Japan or the United States. Second, aside from military capacity, China may feel it needs to do much more in the area of military modernization when it changes its assessment of the security environment, and if it sees that Japan or the United States have both the capacity and the will to threaten China’s security and China’s role in Asia and in the world. China may also feel it needs to react to the rise of military power and militarism of Japan, in order to maintain the military balance in Asia, which currently features a degree of some Chinese superiority over Japan. Thirdly, China may need a much stronger military capability to compete with the United States if Chinese nationalism leads China to challenge America’s status and role in Asia or in the world, or if America adopts a strategy of comprehensive containment against a rising China.
Japan-China Alliance Good – 2AC
Japanese and Chinese cooperation would promote prosperity in East Asia
Japan Federation of Economic Organizations 1 (Feb 20, http://www.keidanren.or.jp/english/policy/2001/006.htmli) LL
In the relationship between Japan and China, from time to time, partly because of historical circumstances, there is a tendency to regard it as a special relationship. Even in business relations, there is a tendency to give China special consideration, on grounds that China is a socialist country and has one-party rule. However, in today's globalized economy, there is increasing pressure for international cooperation in a multilateral setting. China too is actively taking part in world economic affairs on a global basis, as witnessed by its effort to join the World Trade Organization. In a WTO-guided global economy, China has to abide by global standards and increase the transparency of its domestic laws and business practices. This is a challenging job. To enlarge the world economy, Japan and other major developed countries should continue to back up China's efforts and smooth its way into WTO membership. In terms of the regional economy, cooperation between Japan and China, both major economies in Asia, will promote stability and prosperity in the region. In this sense, cooperation between Japan and China in APEC, the ASEAN-plus-three forum and the ASEAN Regional Forum will be good for the stability and prosperity in East Asia. Over the long run, Japan and China could perhaps explore the possibility of setting up an East Asia free trade area and broaden the sphere of economic cooperation in the region. One possibility is to form a cooperative framework among countries adjoining the Sea of Japan, which, one day, could even encompass a unified Korea and Russia's Far Eastern Region. During his visit to Japan in October 2000, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, in a meeting with Japanese business leaders, said he wishes Japan would seek to play a larger role in the world and in regional affairs. "China attaches importance to the influence Japan has in the Asian economy and the economic role it plays in the region. We would like to work more closely with the Japanese side under the framework of East Asia cooperation so that it could embark on projects of importance to our region. This is the kind of role we can play to promote economic development in Asia," he said. These remarks, in a departure from the past, suggest that China also hopes Japan would take a leading role to promote regional economic cooperation in East Asia.
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