EU Rel Good- NATO (2/2)
Turkey’s nuclearization would make Europe a powder keg for nuclear war and terrorism
SOKOLSKI 7 (JUNE 14TH The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.npec-web.org/Presentations/20070616-Sokolski-Talk-AixEnProvence-Conference.pdf 6/20) TBC
One country that might disagree with this view, though, is Turkey. It is trying to figure out how to live with a nuclear weapons armed neighbor, Iran; is disappointed by its inability to be fully integrated into the EU; and is toying with getting its own nuclear capabilities. Whether or not Turkey does choose to go its own way and acquire a nuclear weapons-option of its own will depend on several factors, including Ankara’s relations with Washington, Brussels, and Tehran. To a very significant degree, though, it also will depend on whether or not the EU Members States are serious about letting Turkey join the EU. The dimmer these prospects look, the greater is the likelihood of that Turkey will chose to hedge its political, economic, and security bets by seeking a nuclear weapons-option of its own. This poses a difficult choice for the EU. Many key members are opposed to letting Turkey join the EU. There are arguments to favor this position. Yet, if Turkey should conclude that its interests are best served by pursuing such a nuclear weapons-option, it is almost certain to fortify the conviction of Egypt, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia to do the same. This will result in the building up a nuclear powder keg on Europe’s doorstep and significantly increase the prospect for nuclear terrorism and war.
EU Rel Good- Nuke War
And, lack of EU- US alliance, a nuclear war emerges
Glaser 93 (Charles, professor in the Elliott School of International Affairs and the Department of Political Science. International Security, Vol 18, No. 1, Summer 1993) ET
However, although the lack of an imminent soviet threat eliminate the most obvious danger, US security has not been entirely separated from the future of Western Europe. The ending of the cold war has brought many benefits, but has not eliminated the possibility of major power war, especially since such a war could grow out of a smaller conflict in the east. And, although nuclear weapons have greatly reduced the threat that a European hegemon would pose to U.S. security, a sound case nevertheless remains that a major European war could threaten U.S. security. The united states could be drawn into such a war, even if strict security suggested it should stay out. A major power war could escalate to a nuclear war that, especially if the United States joins, could include attacks against the American homeland. Thus, the United States should not be unconcerned about Europe’s future.
**Karzai Impacts**
Karzai- Democracy Module
Karzai credibility key to democracy
National Post 9 [November 3, pg A14, Lexis] KLS
The West has rushed to legitimize the election results. Yesterday, U.S. President Barack Obama called Mr. Karzai to congratulate him, something he had refused to do after August's disputed result. The UN has also signed off on Mr. Karzai's win, as has the country's domestic election office. Mr. Obama even told reporters in the Oval Office that he had extracted a pledge from the re-elected Mr. Karzai to go "boldly and forcefully forward" to end corruption and speed the pace at which Afghan military and police are taking over national security from NATO forces, including Canada's. But it is not Mr. Karzai's legitimacy in Western eyes that will determine the ultimate success or failure of efforts to build Afghanistan into a functioning democracy with a self-sufficient economy. Democracy and success cannot be imposed from above and from outside; they must come from the people of a country. The best the West can do is maintain internal stability while Afghans work out for themselves how best to structure their affairs. And it is not clear if the Afghan people will give enough support to Mr. Karzai and the Afghan parliament to achieve those desirable goals. Mr. Karzai now must work doubly hard to maintain the support of his nation's Western allies while also attempting to win credibility with his own citizens. Over the next year or two, he must show tremendous progress, particularly toward rooting out his own corrupt officials, or he risks pulling all the progress that has been made in the past eight years down on his head and turning NATO nations off the idea of sending their troops to defend his country.
Democracy solves environment – accountability, information flow and markets.
Li and Reuveny 7 [Quan, Professor of Political Science at Penn State and Rafael, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana, Vol. 24, No. 3, University http://cmp.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/24/3/219] KLS
Moving to the view that democracy reduces the level of environmental degradation, one set of considerations focuses on the institutional qualities of democracy. The responsiveness argument is that democracies are more responsive to the environmental needs of the public than are autocracies due to their very nature of taking public interests into account (Kotov and Nikitina, 1995). It is also argued that democracies comply with environmental agreements well, since they respect, and respond to, the rule of law (Weiss and Jacobsen, 1999). The freedom of information channel is offered by Schultz and Crockett (1990) and Payne (1995). They theorize that political rights and greater freedom for information flows help2 to promote the cause of environmental groups, raise public awareness of problems and potential solutions, and encourage environmental legislation to curtail environmental degradation. Democracies also tend to have market economies, which further promotes the flow of information as economic efficiency and profits requires full information. Hence, unlike the above argument, this channel expects that profit-maximizing markets will promote environmental quality (Berger, 1994).
Democracy solves environment – less war, famines and more responsibility.
Li and Reuveny 7 [Quan, Professor of Political Science at Penn State and Rafael, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana, Vol. 24, No. 3, University http://cmp.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/24/3/219] KLS
A second set of considerations on the positive role of democracy on environmental quality focuses on the effects of democracy on human life and crisis situations. The famines argument (Sen, 1994) observes that famines tend to promote environmental degradation because they divert attention away from longer-term environmental concerns. Since famines typically do not occur in democracies, argues Sen, environmental quality is expected to be higher in democracies than in autocracies. The human life argument (Gleditsch & Sverdlop, 2003) suggests that since democracies respect human life more than autocracies, they are more responsive to life-threatening environmental degradation. A related argument, the war channel, reasons that to the extent that democracies engage in fewer wars, they should also have a higher level of environmental quality (Gleditsch & Sverdlop, 2003), since war often destroys the environment of the warring parties (Lietzmann & Vest, 1999).
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