Afghanistan Aff

Impacts- Heg/Terrorism

Now, Afghanistan has become the first domino of our era, and the rest of the falling dominos in the 21st century are, of course, the terrorist attacks to come, once an emboldened al-Qaeda has its "safe haven" and its triumph in the backlands of that country. In other words, first Afghanistan, then Pakistan, then a mushroom cloud over an American city. In both the Vietnam era and today, Washington has also been mesmerized by that supposedly key currency of international stature, "credibility".

Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level conflicts. Finally, U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

Impacts- Jirga Scenario

Karzai needs all the political capital to push reconciliation through the Jirga
Carlstrom 10 ( Greg, Aljazeera reporter, Aljazeera, June 3-10, http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2010/06/20106618450763838.html) ET

The Taliban has shown slight interest in dialogue with Kabul, and several high-ranking members were reportedly holding quiet talks with the Karzai government last year. But the February arrest of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Omar's deputy, has sparked a leadership crisis within the organisation and stalled that dialogue. Kai Eide, the former head of the United Nations mission in Afghanistan, has said that Baradar's arrest hurt the prospect of talks with the Taliban. Hezb-i-Islami Hezb-i-Islami ("Islamic Party") is often called a "Taliban" group, but it actually predates the latter by more than a decade. The party was founded in 1975 by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who would later serve a brief stint as prime minister of Afghanistan; it played a key role in helping to expel the Soviets from AfghanistanThe movement eventually split in two. One branch, a non-violent political party, now controls more than a dozen seats in the Afghan parliament and claims to be independent from Hekmatyar. The other remained loyal to Hekmatyar; it's often referred to as the Hezb-i-Islami Gulbuddin (or HiG, for short), and claims to command several thousand fighters in eastern Afghanistan. Of the three insurgent groups, HiG is the one most willing to publicly talk about negotiations with Kabul. Representatives of Hekmatyar's movement met with Afghan officials in March and presented a 15-point "peace plan", which calls for the withdrawal of foreign forces, a cease-fire and a prisoner release. General Michael Flynn, the head of US intelligence in Afghanistan, has called Hekmatyar "absolutely salvageable". But HiG leaders have been talking for years about reconciliation with Kabul, with little to show for it. Hekmatyar publicly spurned last week's peace jirga, and members of his organisation tell Al Jazeera they won't negotiate until foreign forces leave. And any talk of rehabiliating Hekmatyar is deeply unwelcome to many Afghan citizens who suffered through decades of human rights abuses committed by Hekmatyar's militia, most notably his incessant rocketing of Kabul in 1994
No reconciliation means economic fragmentation, cultural rifts
Castillo 6/24 [Graciana del, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University, 2010, Project Syndicate http://www.ittefaq.com/issues/2010/06/25/news0032.htm]

This policy change is a necessary parallel to the military action now taking place. It is also a belated recognition that the "development as usual" policies followed in Afghanistan up to now have failed. Indeed, as has been painfully demonstrated, the old policies were never going to be enough to galvanize Afghan public support, particularly for a new military "surge." Eight years ago, Afghanistan embarked on four distinct transitions: a security transition away from violence and insecurity; a political transition toward a society based on participatory government and the rule of law; a social transition from tribal and ethnic confrontations toward national reconciliation; and an economic transition to transform a war-torn and unstable economy into a viable one in which people can make a decent and legal living. Because economic reconstruction takes place amid this multi-pronged transition, what has been happening in Afghanistan is fundamentally different from normal development processes. The current Afghan situation reflects the failure until now to make national reconciliation - rather than optimal development policies - the bedrock priority of the government and the international community.

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