Afghanistan wave 4
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AT: Drug TraffickingTurn – withdrawal fuels drug trafficking that spills over – turns all their impacts Muzalevsky, 7/24 -- Program Manager of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center’s Washington office (10, Roman, “The US Expands Military Ties with Tajikistan,” http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=19459&Itemid=132) A possible upsurge in terrorist and drug trafficking activity following the planned US military disengagement from Afghanistan makes such programs important for regional countries. Earlier, in March, the US actually announced opening a similar facility in the south of Kyrgyzstan at the cost of $5.5 million (www.24.kg, March 10). Besides seeking to enhance security in Central Asia, these initiatives are apparently aimed at allaying fears among US regional partners concerning the durability of Washington’s commitments in the region against the backdrop of US plans to extricate itself from the war in Afghanistan. Withdrawal encourages drug trafficking – turns regional stability Copley, 7/22 -- President, The International Strategic Studies Association (Washington, DC, USA); President, Global Information System, Inc.; Editor-in-Chief, Defense & Foreign Affairs Publications (2010, Gregory R., “The Strategic Ramifications of a US-Led Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” http://oilprice.com/Geo-Politics/Middle-East/The-Strategic-Ramifications-of-a-US-Led-Withdrawal-from-Afghanistan.html) Irrespective of the political solution and/or compromise which will emerge in Kabul, the US is leaving behind a huge powder keg of global and regional significance with a short fuse burning profusely: namely, the impact of Afghanistan’s growing, expanding and thriving heroin economy. The issue at hand is not just the significant impact which the easily available and relatively cheap heroin has on the addiction rates in Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, and the consequent public health, social stability and mortality-rate issues. In global terms, the key threat is the impact that the vast sums of drug money has on the long-term regional stability of vast tracks of Eurasia: namely, the funding of a myriad of “causes” ranging from jihadist terrorism and subversion to violent and destabilizing secessionism and separatism. AT: China ScenarioMultiple alternate causalities to internal strife in China Klintworth, 94 – Fmr Senior Researcher, Northeast Asia Project (November, Gary, Australian Journal of International Affairs, “Greater China and Regional Security, Informaworld”) China also has many problems, not least the degradation of its environment, population pressure, rising expectations, infrastructural bottlenecks, political factionalism, the Deng succession, a crisis of legitimacy for the Chinese Communist Party, the politics of corruption, regional disparities, a rising crime rate, the erosion of state authority and roving masses, numbering up to 130 million, of underemployed or dissatisfied peasants in several inland provinces.45 There are demands for independence by ethnic minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang. Given these considerations, it is by no means certain that the country will remain intact, and it may be premature, therefore, to talk about China as a great power that can dominate the neighboring region or project power and influence far from its physical borders.46 The breakup of China or at the very least a weak government in Beijing, might unleash fissiparous tendencies in China’s outer regions, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. This could trigger intervention by outside powers, such as Japan, the US, Britain and India that in turn, would provoke a strong military response from the PLA, if it was not meanwhile distracted trying to maintain law and order in the cities. The possibilities are endless and that is why, of the two alternatives, a disintegrating China poses the greatest risk to regional and global security. The Uighurs impact is empirically denied – riots just broke out and China is dealing with it internally MacLeod, 7/6 – Staff Reporter, USA Today (2010, Calum, “Effects of China’s Ethnic Riots Linger,” ) Patrols of armed police, backed by thousands of newly installed surveillance cameras, ensured the northwest city of Urumqi stayed tense but trouble-free Monday, the first anniversary of ethnic riots that left nearly 200 people dead last July. The rioting in the capital city of Xinjiang province, home to Muslim Uighurs (WEE-gurs), was China's worst ethnic violence in decades. The riots spurred Beijing to strengthen security and boost a propaganda campaign in the remote, resource-rich region, which has long simmered with ethnic unrest. In May, Chinese President Hu Jintao set out plans to achieve "leapfrog development and lasting stability" in Xinjiang, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency. The nearly $1.5 billion project, to begin next year, aims to raise Xinjiang's per capita GDP to the national average by 2015. It includes massive infrastructure spending, such as lengthening the region's 521 miles of highways to nearly 2,500 over the next five years, Xinhua said. AT: Caspian Oil InterestsThe Caspian is of little significance – the US would never involve itself Eytchison, 3 – Patrick, The Energy Bulletin (9/30, “The Caspian Oil Myth,” http://www.energybulletin.net/node/86) Such estimates are never purely a matter of science; oil companies tend, after operations have begun, to give low estimates while governments seeking foreign investments, such as the case with Kazakhstan, naturally push projections as high as they can. The Kazakhstan government continues to suggest that its nation’s oil resources may be as much as 50 billion barrels, but this is hardly taken seriously in the industry. While Agip’s current reserve figures may be intentionally low there is good reason to believe that they are reasonably accurate. A recent study by the consulting firm Wood MacKenzie estimated total hydrocarbon reserves of the 5 Caspian littoral states as 39.4 billion barrels. (17) At any rate, it is by now obvious that Caspian oil is not the alternative to OPEC Middle Eastern oil once envisioned by some strategists. To give some comparisons: while Kazakhstan’s Tengiz may hold 8 billion barrels of oil and Kashagan 7-9 billion barrels, Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar field (the world’s largest) holds 70 to 80 billion barrels of proven reserves. As the EIA itself admitted in a February 2002 report, “The Caspian will never be another Middle East.” (18) Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 0.66 Mb. Share with your friends:
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