Appendix S1: Considerations for developing robust gb models 2 Appendix S2: Sensitivity Analysis 5 Table summary of Sensitivity Analysis on Parameters 11 Table summary of Sensitivity Analysis on Model Assumptions 12 Figure S1


Figure S14: Random LDD Neighborhood 25 x 25



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Figure S14: Random LDD Neighborhood 25 x 25


Spread is more limited in the north than in the full model from 2000-2009, indicating that local bird dispersal was ineffective in reaching this region over a span of 90 years. Interestingly, predictions are better in 1960-1980 than the full model because all LDD event are constrained to land nearer to existing populations.



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