Appendix S1: Considerations for developing robust gb models 2 Appendix S2: Sensitivity Analysis 5 Table summary of Sensitivity Analysis on Parameters 11 Table summary of Sensitivity Analysis on Model Assumptions 12 Figure S1



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Figure S17: Start model in 1959


Initiating the model in 1959 with the observed presences up until 1960. Similar to the model initiated in 1939, the spread is initially slower than observed in the full model, but prediction accuracy increases in 1980 because the location of populations in 1940 is sufficient to explain occurrence in 1980. It seems, however that there may have been greater spread in 1980 than shown in this figure because results in 2000 suffer from under-prediction.



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