Appendix S1: Considerations for developing robust gb models 2 Appendix S2: Sensitivity Analysis 5 Table summary of Sensitivity Analysis on Parameters 11 Table summary of Sensitivity Analysis on Model Assumptions 12 Figure S1


Table S2. Summary of Sensitivity Analysis on Model Assumptions



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Table S2. Summary of Sensitivity Analysis on Model Assumptions

See the below for the associated Figures. The model made a correct prediction by our standards if the prediction was correct for at least 50% of model runs. Models 8-12 were initiated with three naturalized populations (the same number used in our best model) distributed along the specified border in cells with  >1.



Model

Percent Correct

1940

1960

1980

2000

2009

1

Full Model

82

95

86

88

84

2

No Plant population growth

64

64

42

40

18

3

No Local Bird Dispersal

9

5

2

2

1

4

No LDD

82

86

68

82

78

5

Homogeneous Landscape

73

68

95

98

100

6

Binary Landscape

45

64

74

86

82

7

Random Landscape

36

18

9

15

15

8

Introductions in South

55

91

84

87

83

9

Introductions in North

0

23

84

87

83

10

Introductions in Center

0

45

82

90

83

11

Introductions in West

0

45

86

89

83

12

Introductions in East

27

18

86

88

85


Sensitivity Analysis Figure Explanations

Throughout this appendix, white circles indicate introduction points; black dots are correctly predicted presences and black circles indicate incorrectly predicted presences. The color scale indicates the proportion of model runs that resulted in a presence, and is located to the right in each figure. The criterion for a correct prediction was that at least 50% of 100 model runs made the correct prediction. These are the same criteria described in the main text.


Figure S1: No plant population growth.


Spread barely extends beyond introduction points.



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