Ask Baseball America By James Bailey
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- April 25, 2000
April 26, 2000A slight brainlock took over when I was inputting the Marlins' 2003 lineup yesterday. I took it straight from the Top 10 issue, and of course Nunez wasn't part of the organization at the time. He seems to me like the one guy in that system that has a shot at becoming an all-star caliber player. So pencil him into that lineup and knock Chip Ambres out of there. Still, I stick to my point about not seeing enough potent bats in the lineup to move the team into the "scary good" class any time soon. Back tomorrow with a regular column. April 25, 2000As long as the Marlins are in first place, we'll keep paying them some attention. And not just for their ridiculous "Elian Gonzalez day off" tonight. A few readers seem to have Marlins pitching on the brain. So lets kick things off with a couple of those questions. I was looking at the standings and saw the Marlins doing very well. Now I know they will settle down and probably win 70 games at most this year, but it leaves me with the question, how close are the Marlins to being scary good? I mean their rotation already consists of Alex Fernandez (a 2-4 type starter depending how well he heals, probably closer to 2 or 3-age 31), Brad Penny (a potential ace-age 22), and Ryan Dempster who is coming into his own (age 23) and future closer Braden Looper. Vladimir Nunez is supposed to be hot stuff and Jesus Sanchez is pitching adequately. They also have a slew of arms in the minors, including one who will be up some time this year (A.J. Burnett) and one who has a 50-50 shot of being up some time next year (Josh Beckett), and loads of hitters with good tools, though their major league lineup could use much work. Anyway, how good do you think this team can be and how long do you think it will take them to get there. Ben The Marlins do have a ton of top-notch prospects in the pipeline, and you can draw a few parallels to the Braves of 10 years ago. The thing you have to keep in mind is that when you're talking about prospects, you can't project every single one of them as a big league star. Some will get hurt, some just won't live up to their billing. Optimistically you can figure about half of the stud prospects at high Class A or higher will become major league starters for at least three seasons. Your percentages get higher, obviously, if the prospects are at the higher levels of the organization and lower if they're further away. In the Marlins case, here's how their Top 10 prospects break down by classification: Florida: Burnett (No. 1, DL), Penny (No. 4), 2B Pablo Ozuna (No. 7) Triple-A Calgary: OF Julio Ramirez (No. 5), RHP Jason Grilli (No. 8) Double-A Portland: RHP Gary Knotts (No. 9) Class A Brevard County: RHP Wes Anderson (No. 3) Class A Kane County: Beckett (No. 2), OF Chip Ambres (No. 6), RHP Terry Byron (No. 10) They're fairly evenly spread throughout the organization, with half at Triple-A or in the majors. The guys at the lower levels, assuming they make it, are at least a couple of years from being dependable contributors in the major leagues. Look at what the Braves projected rotation 10 years ago would have been. Tom Glavine, Steve Avery, John Smoltz, Tommy Greene, Kent Mercker and Dennis Burlingame as the alternate. They batted .500 if you want to count Avery, who did contribute to their success for several years before burning his arm out. Realistically, what that means is that of the dynamic foursome of Burnett, Beckett, Anderson and Penny, odds are two of the four won't live up to their billing. We'll have to check back in 2003 and see if they beat the odds. Perhaps three of them will become good major league starters, but I'd bet just about anything all four won't make it. Still, with a couple of those guys plugged into their rotation to go with Fernandez, an improved Dempster or Sanchez and a free agent pickup, etc., they could have one of the better rotations in the league in a few years. The problem is, I don't look at their future lineup with the same optimism. The 2003 lineup we projected for the Marlins with their Top 10 list over the winter looked like this: C–Ramon Castro, 1B–Derrek Lee, 2B–Luis Castillo, 3B–Mike Lowell, SS–Alex Gonzalez, LF–Preston Wilson, CF–Julio Ramirez, RF–Abraham Nunez. I see a lot of guys who will be league-average at best and a few of them won't be that lucky. Nunez is the only one that seems to have a shot at becoming a really above-average player. For this team to become "scary good" to me, they need at least two hitters that the rest of the league fears. I don't see that in the organization right now. This is all pretty closely related to another question we received early last week. I've been meaning to get to it, and here it is at last. I've been following minor league baseball a lot over the last couple of years, and I must say that the White Sox and the Marlins have the most pitching wealth I have ever seen. While the Marlins may have four huge pitching prospects in Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Brad Penny and Wes Anderson, they seriously lack the White Sox' depth. The White Sox' big four of Kip Wells, Jon Garland, Aaron Myette and a healthy Lorenzo Barcelo can practically match up against the Marlins' top four. Plus the White Sox drafted seven quality pitching prospects in last year's draft by taking Jason Stumm, Matt Ginter, Danny Wright, Brian West, Rob Purvis, Jon Rauch and Mark Beurhle. I was wondering who you think has stronger supply of quality arms and where these teams would rank in recent history. John Schneider Chicago, Illinois In recent history, I'd say these two groups stack up there near the top. The Braves have been able to keep the pitchers coming for the last decade, but I'm not sure that at any single point in time they had the depth that the White Sox have right now. Of course, maybe that's only from viewing things in hindsight. It's easy to forget about the Dennis Burlingames a few years later. If Stumm, Wright, West and Purvis all flame out, perhaps we won't remember the Sox as having been so deep a few years from now. For example, it's easy to forget how deep the early '90s White Sox were regarded as being. That Scott Ruffcorn, Johnny Ruffin, Rod Bolton, Jason Bere and James Baldwin rotation of the future didn't really pan out like some figured. I think these Sox are much deeper right now than the Marlins. John left out two of my favorite White Sox pitchers, Juan Figueroa and Gary Majewski. Figueroa, 20, led the Rookie-level Appalachian League in strikeouts in 1998 and blossomed last year at Class A Burlington, going 8-4, 3.12 with 139 strikeouts in 115 innings before earning a promotion to Class A Winston-Salem. He started this season back at Winston-Salem, and is 2-0, 3.55 with 21 strikeouts and two walks in 12 2/3 innings. Majewski, 20, led the Appy League in strikeouts last year and is following the same course as Figueroa did. He threw a three-hit shutout against Wisconsin last night and is now 2-2 with a 1.38 ERA for Burlington. Opponents are hitting .149 against him and he's struck out 22 hitters in 26 innings. The thing about the White Sox is, unlike the Marlins, they actually have some hitters that scare you in place at the big league level. I think this is going to be a team to reckon with soon and for a long time in the AL Central. Considering the way the Indians system is drying up, I think the Sox could realistically be the team to beat in that division pretty soon. That is unless Jerry Reinsdorf, the most lovable man in baseball, finds a way to screw it up. And a quick side note on the White Sox . . . Darrin Jackson is horrible as a broadcaster. He wasn't good as a player, but he's much worse as Hawk's sidekick. Oh, how he makes Wimpy seem so good in comparison. I was scanning through your daily Minor League Highlights (last week) and noticed Jeff Auterson hit a pair of home runs for Vero Beach. Now I know most players in A ball in up but I have never heard of him. He seems to be off to a hot start, what can you tell us about him (age, drafted when, talent)? Will he get much of a chance to play with Jorge Piedra and Bubba Crosby around, or is he a platoon with Mike Koerner (a corner outfielder!) Staying with Vero Beach, is Hunter Bledsoe a full time DH or does he play outfielder or first base? Thanks, Bruce Norlander Minneapolis, MN
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