Australia's Maritime Petroleum Supply Chain
Influences on availability
Download 1.52 Mb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- 2Lead time for newbuilds
- 3Standards
- 4Technology
15Influences on availability1Cost cycleThe cost cycle is influenced by normal supply and demand activity in the sector, primarily the demand to ship petroleum and the supply of ships. Relatively small changes in either of these factors can have a major impact on the market price. 2Lead time for newbuildsOn ship supply, it can take up to three years from deciding on the need for a ship to its delivery after construction, so market requirements when it is delivered can be very different. In recent years there has been significant fleet addition as the result of the strong economic conditions leading to greater newbuilding in the period prior to the GFC (Figure 3). Figure 3: Age Profile of Tankers 1983 to 2013 
Source: Drewry Maritime Research 3StandardsAnother influence on the cost cycle is the impact of marine regulations - international, domestic and those imposed by companies operating in the sector. The introduction of double-hulled oil tankers in the past decade led to a substantial rebuilding program in most tanker categories which means that currently the fleet has a relatively young average age. While in the past oil tankers might be used for 20 to 30 years, the changes to the maritime regulations over the past decade (which had been flagged as coming a decade earlier) has meant much of the older tonnage has been scrapped. In addition many companies (and some countries) have policies on ship life for oil tankers, not using any tonnage over 20 years old and in some cases 15 years. The refiners/wholesalers in Australia generally operate to the shorter 15 year timeframe. 4TechnologyTechnological advances may also be a spur to new investment as Owners look to achieve greater efficiency (carrying capacity, fuel efficiency) or to respond to further regulatory pressures (e.g. changes in emissions standards). 5Forward Supply Demand BalanceIn the period since 2008 significant capacity has been added as a function of order books committed pre GFC being delivered on. But correspondingly returns since then have been poor with capacity significantly exceeding supply. Drewry is expecting economic conditions for owners to improve over the next 5 years, as the supply/demand equation comes back into balance. Nevertheless Drewry’s projections (Figure 4, Table 10) indicate good availability to meet demand. Figure 4: Global Tanker Fleet Supply Demand Balance 
Source: Drewry Maritime Research Table 10 provides Drewry's view for MRs to 2018. Again the same picture holds as for the general picture. Table 10: Global MR Tanker Fleet Supply Demand 
Source: Drewry Maritime Research Directory: system -> files -> energy -> files files -> Haiti Relief – esf 15 Support Organization Situation Report # 16 1/27/10 files -> Right to Carbon or Right to Life: Human Rights Approaches to Climate Change files -> Enhancing interactive learning in the classroom with Turning Point files -> Curriculum vita files -> - files -> Acknowledgements files -> Nw, Washington D. C 20037 Telephone: (202)884-1080, (202)939-6125/7 files -> Grey-headed Flying-fox Management Strategy for the Lower Hunter Grey-headed Flying-fox files -> Nesa identified Issues: Strait of Hormuz Download 1.52 Mb. Share with your friends:
|