This report examines the maritime supply chain and key role it plays in Australia's petroleum supply chain. Where relevant it covers the related elements of the supply chain although these are more comprehensively covered in the Australia Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) reports on the petroleum industry1 and the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (DRET) report on import infrastructure2.
The maritime supply chain covers:
The petroleum shipping market
Trade movements of petroleum (crude and products) within and between countries are a significant part of the market dynamic for delivering petroleum to markets (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Major Oil Trade Movements
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Within that global seaborne trade is a dominant part. Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited (Drewry)3 estimates that global seaborne trade of petroleum and petroleum products is currently around 3 billion tonnes per annum (split approximately two thirds crude/one third product) and will increase by nearly 20% over the next 5 years. 3 billion tonnes represents around 65% of current global market demand for petroleum.
Table 1: Seaborne Trade in Petroleum
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
Seaborne trade will grow as global oil demand grows but the rate of growth will be influenced by factors such as:
changes in the geography of oil demand - the shift in demand growth from North America/Europe to Asia Pacific, where refining capacity addition is occurring, will increase average haul length (a 26% increase in tonne miles); and
changes in the profile of capacity - tanker classifications being built to a bigger size (e.g. MR vessels being increased to up to 55,000 DWT).
The supply demand balance for tankers will vary with the rate at which:
capacity is added;
older tankers are scrapped; and
oil demand growth translates to higher shipping demand.
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