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HELIUM-3 IS RAPIDLY DWINDLING DESPITE CRITICAL NEEDS IN MANY AREAS-McElroy ‘10



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HELIUM-3 IS RAPIDLY DWINDLING DESPITE CRITICAL NEEDS IN MANY AREAS-McElroy ‘10

[Molly; AAAS Workshop Explores How to Meet Demand for Helium-3 in Medicine, Industry, and Security; AAAS; 23 April 2010; http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2010/0423helium3.shtml; retrieved 20 Jun 2011]


Helium-3—a variation of the helium used in balloons—can reduce temperatures to nearly absolute zero, provide non-radioactive medical lung imaging, and detect neutrons emanating from smuggled nuclear devices. It may even be an element of a clean energy source. For decades, this non-toxic and non-corrosive gas has been in adequate supply, but now that supply is dwindling just as demand is rising dramatically.

At a AAAS-organized workshop, participants from academia, industry, government and national labs met to discuss how to meet the growing need for helium-3. The numbers tell a stark story:

This year, there’s about 12,000 liters of helium-3 available. For the next five years, about 8000 liters of helium-3 each year will accumulate from the decay of tritium, said Steve Fetter, assistant director at large in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). But demand is at least 40,000 liters per year, Fetter said, and forecasts show a growing demand for helium-3 for neutron detectors, scientific research, medical imaging and other uses.

“It’s not a sustainable situation,” he said.


INCREASED DEMAND FOR HE-3 AT BORDERS MEANS DECAYING TRITIUM CANNOT PROVIDE ENOUGH-McElroy ‘10

[Molly; AAAS Workshop Explores How to Meet Demand for Helium-3 in Medicine, Industry, and Security; AAAS; 23 April 2010; http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2010/0423helium3.shtml; retrieved 20 Jun 2011]


That leaves one main reliable source: Decaying tritium.

While manufacturing tritium just to obtain helium-3 also is prohibitively expensive, it is a reliable byproduct of the U.S. nuclear weapons program. Tritium—which has a 12.4 year half-life and decays to helium-3—is used to boost the yield of nuclear weapons. Tritium doesn’t contribute much to the explosion, Fetter said, but rather serves as a source of neutrons. The helium-3 produced from the decay of tritium can be recovered and repurposed.

After the Cold War, the United States had tens of thousands of nuclear weapons. U.S. tritium production ended in 1988 and the number of warheads was subsequently reduced. Throughout the 1990s, the supply of helium-3 exceeded demand. By 2000, the United States had accumulated over 200,000 liters of helium-3.

But after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, the demand for helium-3 increased for neutron detectors at border points, Fetter said. Then demand began to exceed helium-3 production through decay of tritium, and the stockpile was drawn down. The United States began to make tritium again in 2007, but in limited supply. In 2008, about 79,000 liters of helium-3 were used, more than half of the existing stock. “Then we realized, we can’t go this way much longer,” Fetter said. “We have to bring demand in balance with supply.”



TERRESTRIAL PRODUCTION OF HE-3 HAS NOT KEPT UP WITH POST 9/11 DEMAND-Dixon ‘10

[Darius; Helium-3 Shortage Could Mean Nuke Detection ‘Disaster’; Wired; 29 April 2010; http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/04/helium-3-shortage-could-mean-nuke-detection-disaster/; retrieved 20 Jun 2011]


Helium-3 is a decay product of tritium, a heavy isotope of hydrogen used to enhance the yield of nuclear weapons, but whose production stopped in 1988. The half-life decay of tritium is about 12 years, and the U.S. supply for helium-3 is fed by harvesting the gas from dismantled or refurbished nuclear weapons. However, production of helium-3 hasn’t kept pace with the exponential demand sparked by the Sept. 11 attacks.

Projected demand for the nonradioactive gas in 2010 is said to be more than 76,000 liters per year, while U.S. production is a mere 8,000 liters annually, and U.S. total supply rests at less than 48,000 liters. This shortage wasn’t identified until a workshop put on by the Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Physics in August 2008.


THE LOOMING CRISIS OF HE-3 SHORTAGE HAS CAUSED THE PRICE TO GO TO $5000/LITER-Reed ‘11

[Christina; staff writer; The Fallout of a Helium-3 Crisis; Discovery News; 19 Feb 2011; http://news.discovery.com/earth/the-outfall-of-a-helium-3-crisis.html; retrieved 28 Jun 2011]


Because those who use helium-3 were buying it on the cheap, there was no incentive to conserve the gas, despite the supply being cut short in 1989 with the end of the Cold War.

Helium-3 was “considered a waste product from the weapons so it was priced low,” explained Director Julie Bentz of the Nuclear Defense Policy Office of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Coordinator. She spoke today during the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, D.C.

The gas is part of the leftovers that come from cooking up a hydrogen bomb, which requires uranium and a dash of tritium. When the radioactive tritium decays it produces helium-3. While there are other ways of decaying tritium without needing to build a bomb to do it, the United States has recently found itself in short supply of both tritium and the resulting helium-3.

So short in fact, that last year when the looming crisis, which reporters had been covering for years, became official, the price of helium-3 went from $150 per liter to $5,000 per liter. “We think the correct price should be $1500,” Bentz said.


INCREASED DEMAND FOR HE-3 SINCE 9/11 HAS LED TO SHORTAGE THAT CANNOT BE MET-Shea and Morgan ‘10

[Dana and Daniel; Specialist in Science and Technology Policy, Congressional Research Service; The Helium-3 Shortage: Supply, Demand, and Options for Congress; 22 Dec 2010; http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41419.pdf; retrieved 27 Jun 2011]


The world is experiencing a shortage of helium-3, a rare isotope of helium with applications in

homeland security, national security, medicine, industry, and science. For many years the supply of helium-3 from the nuclear weapons program outstripped the demand for helium-3. The

demand was small enough that a substantial stockpile of helium-3 accumulated. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the federal government began deploying neutron detectors at the U.S. border to help secure the nation against smuggled nuclear and radiological material. The deployment of this equipment created new demand for helium-3. Use of the polarized helium-3 medical imaging technique also increased. As a result, the size of the stockpile shrank. After several years of demand exceeding supply, a call for large quantities of helium-3 spurred federal officials to realize that insufficient helium-3 was available to meet the likely future demand.



POLICYMAKERS FACE DIFFICULT CHOICES IN ALLOCATING EXISTING HE-3-Shea and Morgan ‘10

[Dana and Daniel; Specialist in Science and Technology Policy, Congressional Research Service; The Helium-3 Shortage: Supply, Demand, and Options for Congress; 22 Dec 2010; http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41419.pdf; retrieved 27 Jun 2011]


Policymakers now face a number of challenging decisions. In the short term, these decisions are mainly about how to allocate a scarce resource in the face of competing priorities: science versus security, the private sector versus the public sector, and national needs versus international obligations. Applications with unique needs may pose particular challenges. For example, some types of cryogenic research can only be accomplished using helium-3, whereas in medical imaging and neutron detection, helium 3 has advantages but also alternatives. In the longer term, policymakers also face choices about how or whether to increase helium-3 supply or reduce helium-3 demand and about possible alternative mechanisms for allocating supply. It seems likely that a combination of policy approaches will be necessary.
US POLICY IS LEADING TO SHRINKING SUPPLY OF HE-3-Firth ‘10

[Niall; staff writer; Scientists say Earth's helium reserves 'will run out within 25 years' (and party balloons should cost £65 each); Daily Mail; 23 Aug 2010; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1305386/Earths-helium-reserves-run-25-years.html; retrieved 05 Jul 2011]


It is more commonly known as the gas that fills cheap party balloons and makes your voice squeak if you inhale it.

But helium is actually a precious resource that is being squandered with Earth's reserves of it due to run out within 25 to 30 years, experts have warned.

Earth’s resources of helium are being depleted at an astonishing rate, an effect which will spell disaster for hospitals which use it to cool MRI scanners.

The world's biggest store of helium - the most commonly used inert gas - lies in a disused airfield in Amarillo, Texas, and is being sold off far too cheaply.

But in 1996, the US government passed a law which states that the facility - the US National Helium Reserve - must be completely sold off by 2015 to recoup the price of installing it.

This means that the helium, a non-renewable gas, is being quickly sold off at increasingly cheap prices, making it uneconomical to recycle.


ONCE HE-3 IS DEPLETED, THERE IS NO WAY TO REPLACE IT-Firth ‘10

[Niall; staff writer; Scientists say Earth's helium reserves 'will run out within 25 years' (and party balloons should cost £65 each); Daily Mail; 23 Aug 2010; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1305386/Earths-helium-reserves-run-25-years.html; retrieved 05 Jul 2011]


Nobel laureate Robert Richardson, a professor of physics at Cornell University in New York, told New Scientist magazine that once our helium reserves are gone there will be no way of replacing it.

He also warned that although some substitutes can be found for some applications where helium is used, it will be impossible to use a different material for MRI scanners

He told the magazine: There are some substitutes, but it can't be replaced for cryogenics, where liquid helium cools superconducting magnets for MRI scanners.

US PRICING OF HE-3 IS LEADING TO IT BEING SQUANDERED-Firth ‘10

[Niall; staff writer; Scientists say Earth's helium reserves 'will run out within 25 years' (and party balloons should cost £65 each); Daily Mail; 23 Aug 2010; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1305386/Earths-helium-reserves-run-25-years.html; retrieved 05 Jul 2011]


The only way to obtain more helium would be to capture it from the decay of tritium - a radioactive hydrogen isotope, which the U.S. stopped making n 1988.

The US stores around 80 per cent of the world's helium and so its decision to let it go at an extremely low price has a massive knock-on affect on its market.

But Professor Richardson said that low price of helium meant that it was being ‘squandered’ rather than being treated as a precious resource.

He said: 'The problem is that these supplies will run out in a mere 25 years, and the US government has a policy of selling helium at a ridiculously low price.'


HE-3 IS RAPIDLY RUNNING OUT-Hsu ‘10

[Jeremy; Congress to Address Helium-3 Shortage Hurting Scientific Research and Nuclear Security; PopSci; 19 April 2010; http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2010-04/helium-3-shortage-hits-scientific-research-and-nuclear-security; retrieved 9 August 2011]


A large Cold War supply of helium-3 has begun to rapidly run out, due to heavy demand from U.S. scientists who need the gas for neutron detectors and cryogenic experiments. Almost 60,000 liters of helium-3 were used in 2007 and 2008, compared to just 10,000 liters used annually about 10 years ago. A House subcommittee has been convened to search for a solution this week, New Scientist reports.

The U.S. formerly stockpiled helium-3 from the decay of tritium, the radioactive hydrogen isotope used to make nuclear weapons. That helium-3 supply stopped growing for the most part when the U.S. ceased making tritium in 1988. But in an ironic twist, the fast-growing use of neutron detectors in security systems designed to detect illegal plutonium and other nuclear materials has dramatically eaten into the helium-3 stockpile.

The shortage has slowed down the growth of quantum computing and other scientific fields which depend upon frigid conditions provided by helium-3 refrigeration. National laboratories have also been forced to develop less-sensitive neutron detectors which rely upon lithium and boron instead of helium-3.
THOSE NEEDING HE-3 ARE FEELING A SHORTAGE PINCH-Hecht ‘10

[Jeff; Nuclear security push bleeding cryogenic science dry; New Scientist; 19 April 2010; http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18789-nuclear-security-push-bleeding-cryogenic-science-dry.html ; retrieved 9 August 2010]


Helium-3 is invaluable for some scientific instruments. But supplies have been used up in making security systems to detect dangerous nuclear materials, and production can't be increased. On Thursday, a House subcommittee will try to pin down what went wrong and how to fix the problem.

The decay of tritium, the radioactive heavy-hydrogen isotope used in nuclear weapons, long produced more helium-3 than could be used. But the US stopped making new tritium in 1988, and so the remaining supply has been dwindling as it decays. Around a decade ago, the stockpiles of tritium and helium-3 seemed adequate, with only about 10,000 litres used each year, largely in neutron detection and cryogenics.


ADVANTAGE 1: PEAK OIL WILL HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACT
ENERGY SHORTAGES AND ECOLOGICAL CRISES COULD REDUCE HUMAN POPULATION TO LESS THAN A BILLION FOLLOWING DECADES OF WAR AND CHAOS-Heinberg ‘09

[Richard; Faculty member of New College of California; Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World; 2009; Kindle Edition]


A possible scenario for the collapse of our own civilization might go something like this: Energy shortages commence in the second decade of the century, leading to economic turmoil, frequent and lengthening power blackouts, and general chaos. Over the course of several years, food production plummets, resulting in widespread famine, even in formerly wealthy countries. Wars — including civil wars — rage intermittently. Meanwhile ecological crisis also tears at the social fabric, with water shortages, rising sea levels, and severe storms wreaking further havoc. While previous episodic disasters could have been dealt with by disaster management and rescue efforts, by now societies are too disorganized to mount such efforts. One after another, central governments collapse. Societies attempt to shed complexity in stages, thus buying time. Empires devolve into nations; nations into smaller regional or tribal states. But each lower stage — while initially appearing to offer a new beginning and a platform of stability — reaches its own moment of unsustainability and further collapse ensues. Between 2020 and 2100, the global population declines steeply, perhaps to fewer than one billion. By the start of the next century, the survivors’ grandchildren are entertained by stories of a great civilization of the recent past in which people flew in metal birds and got everything they wanted by pressing buttons.
PEAK OIL, FOLLOWED BY PEAK DEBT WILL LEAD TO A SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS-Worth ‘10

[Robert; attorney; Peak Oil and the Second Great Depression (2010-2030): A Survival Guide for Investors and Savers After Peak Oil ; 2010; Kindle Edition]


The coming two decades, 2010 to 2030, will very likely one day be known as, “The Second Great Depression.” Or worse. Why am I so pessimistic? Well, two things. The first is “Peak Oil.” The second is what I refer to as Peak Debt. Peak Oil is the point of maximum global oil production which will be followed by decade after decade of gradual production declines. Everyone accepts the fact that oil won’t last forever. It is, as they say, a “finite resource.” But oil in the ground is not like gas in your gas tank, which flows at a given rate and then is basically gone in the instant that you use the last drop. Rather, oil production will “Peak,” i.e. reach a maximum global production rate, and then gradually decline as one by one the great producing oil fields that remain in the world run dry. The actual peak will only be known conclusively in hindsight, after a decade or so of continued production declines. Initially, these production declines will be attributed to some “temporary” factor, such as the current depressed economic environment. The facts, however, are clear. In 2005, crude oil production rose to an all-time high level of 73.8 million barrels a day (EIA, rolling 12 month average). Despite this record level of production, oil prices jumped to $40 a barrel, a price considered high at the time.
PEAK OIL WILL UNRAVEL THE FOUNDATION OF WORLD CAPITALISM AND THE ENSUING CONFLICTS OVER RESOURCES THREATEN HUMAN CIVILIZATION--Li '08

[Minqi; “An Age of Transition: The United States, China, Peak Oil, and the Demise of Neoliberalism;” Monthly Review; April 2008]


If world oil production and the production of other fossil fuels reach their peak and start to decline in the coming years, then the global capitalist economy will face an unprecedented crisis that it will find difficult to overcome.

The rapid depletion of fossil fuels is only one among many serious environmental problems the world is confronting today. The capitalist economic system is based on production for profit and capital accumulation. In a global capitalist economy, the competition between individual capitalists, corporations, and capitalist states forces each of them constantly to pursue accumulation of capital on increasingly larger scales.

Therefore, under capitalism, there is a tendency for material production and consumption to expand incessantly. After centuries of relentless accumulation, the world's nonrenewable resources are being rapidly depleted and the earth's ecological system is now on the verge of collapse. The survival of the human civilization is at stake.
INCREASE OF PRICE OF CRUDE OIL IS SIGN OF THE ECONOMIC PLAGUE COMING FROM OIL SCARCITY--Nelson '07

[Ronald G.; “'Peak Oil' is only a matter of time;” Pipeline & Gas Journal; February 2007; Wilson Databases]


The steady increase in crude oil price during this decade is the first indicator of the 'economic plague' that may be visited on developed societies around the world. The developing countries still rely heavily on animal and human power for transportation, so they may be spared this "crude awakening" and actually better prepared to eke out an existence in a world of perpetually shrinking crude oil supplies.

The second indicator is the scramble under way by China, India, the UK, the U.S. and other countries to secure oil supplies in foreign countries. At the same time, oil-producing countries are taking steps to nationalize their indigenous oil reserves, as is happening in several South American countries including Venezuela, Colombia and Bolivia. Russia is moving in a similar direction to increase control of its oil. Saudi Arabia is expanding its petroleum-based industries and power-generating capacity to serve its own domestic needs.


PEAK OIL WILL CREATE DEVASTATING ECONOMIC CRISES--Canada and the World Backgrounder '07

[“Peak Oil;” Canada and the World Backgrounder; May 2007; Wilson Databases]


On a wider scale, oil supply interruptions have triggered major economic slumps:

* In 1973, a war in the Middle East prompted Arab countries to halt supplies of oil to the United States. That triggered a recession;

* In 1979-80 the Islamic revolution in Iran shut down that country's oil supply and a recession followed.

In these cases the amount of oil removed from the market was only nine percent and four percent of total supply, respectively. Yet, the economic crises that followed were devastating.

So, we already have a clear picture of what the passing of Hubbert's Peak will look like.

ADVANTAGE 1: HELIUM-3 IS CLEAN, RENEWABLE ENERGY
HE-3 IS A NON-RADIOACTIVE, CLEAN FUEL-Irvine ‘06

[Dean; Mining the Moon for a Nuclear Future; CNN; 18 Dec 2006; http://articles.cnn.com/2006-12-18/tech/fs.moonmining_1_helium-3-moon-base-nuclear-fusion?_s=PM:TECH; retrieved 20 Jun 2011]


The substance that has such large potential is an isotope called helium-3, a form of helium but with only one neutron instead of two.

It is extremely rare on earth as it is created during very active nuclear reactions, most commonly found on the surface of the sun, but here can only be found as a by-product of the maintenance of nuclear weapons.

Experts have estimated that the moon is a rich depository of the isotope with possible reserves that stretch meters down into the lunar soil that have been carried there by solar winds.

What makes helium-3 so attractive as an alternative future fuel source is its environmentally friendly credentials, as it does not produce radioactive waste.


HE-3 WOULD DIMINISH BOTH THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF FOSSIL FUELS AND THE PROLIFERATION DANGER OF NUCLEAR ENERGY-Bilder ‘09

[Richard; Law Professor @ University of Wisconsin; A Legal Regime for the Mining of Helium-3 on the Moon: U.S. Policy Options; Fordham International Law Journal; Volume 33, Issue 2; 2009]


While the technological and economic feasibility of fusion based nuclear energy, particularly fusion reactors utilizing He-3 as fuel, is still uncertain and contested, and its commercial realization at best decades away,5 the implications of such a development could be far-reaching and profound. Fusion energy could significantly reduce the world's heavy dependence on fossil fuels, which are associated with environmental pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and global warming-not to mention their rising price and role in recurrent geopolitical and economic tensions. Fusion energy could also provide a safer alternative to many countries' growing reliance on energy generated from nuclear fission reactors, which hold the potential dangers of nuclear accidents, terrorism, weapons proliferation, and radioactive waste disposal. Moreover, in contrast to the prospect of depletion of terrestrial fossil fuels, it is estimated that there is sufficient He-3 present on the Moon to meet humanity's rapidly growing energy needs for many centuries to come.6 Thus, despite the problematic future of He-3-based fusion energy, it is not surprising that the United States and other major powers are beginning to position themselves to ensure their future access to lunar He-3 resources.
HE-3 IS MORE EFFICIENT &CLEANER THAN OTHER SOURCES OF FUSION FUEL-D’Souza and Otalvaro ‘06

[Marsha and Diana; Worchester Polytechnic Institute; HARVESTING HELIUM-3 FROM THE MOON; 17 Feb 2006; retrieved 28 Jun 2011 http://www.wpi.edu/Pubs/E-project/Available/E-project-031306-122626/unrestricted/IQP.pdf;]


He-3 is especially promising as a fusion fuel due to the low levels of radioactive waste produced by its reaction with deuterium and also because of the impressively high efficiencies. 99% of the energy is released as charged particles, thus being converted immediately into electricity. In contrast, other nuclear reactions in which energy is derived from the heat produced by the reaction are less efficient because of mechanical constraints in efficiencies.
MINING HE-3 WILL BE AFFORDABLE AND PRODUCE ENOUGH FOR OUR ENERGY NEEDS-Schmitt ‘04

[Harrison; staff writer; Mining the Moon; Popular Mechanics; October 2004;http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/air_space/1283056.html; retrieved 27 Jun 2011]


Samples collected in 1969 by Neil Armstrong during the first lunar landing showed that helium-3 concentrations in lunar soil are at least 13 parts per billion (ppb) by weight. Levels may range from 20 to 30 ppb in undisturbed soils. Quantities as small as 20 ppb may seem too trivial to consider. But at a projected value of $40,000 per ounce, 220 pounds of helium-3 would be worth about $141 million.

Because the concentration of helium-3 is extremely low, it would be necessary to process large amounts of rock and soil to isolate the material. Digging a patch of lunar surface roughly three-quarters of a square mile to a depth of about 9 ft. should yield about 220 pounds of helium-3--enough to power a city the size of Dallas or Detroit for a year.

Although considerable lunar soil would have to be processed, the mining costs would not be high by terrestrial standards. Automated machines, perhaps like those shown in the illustrations on the lead page, might perform the work. Extracting the isotope would not be particularly difficult. Heating and agitation release gases trapped in the soil. As the vapors are cooled to absolute zero, the various gases present sequentially separate out of the mix. In the final step, special membranes would separate helium-3 from ordinary helium.



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